Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

Morning all!

BillyBar. High broke and i was late, therefor had a chance to enter lower. Not having any fixed profit target but will be out if it drops back to the low, lets see.



So price touched to the MR1 of the Pivots, what now? I maybe should be exiting the trade if it closes red because a chance of a retracement and take what i got until there? Or does it mean price is now breaking out even higher because it reached to the MR1?



Edit 09:45| While i am writing, the M15 candle now closed red.

Feel my confusing, this is my trouble with not having any clear pre-defined routine entry/exit points, it's a total mess for me then. I don't even have a profit target now after i entered at a lower random level instead of entering at the actual high trigger of the BillyBar setup. So the +5 Pips could have been booked a few times but due to not having a clear plan greed and fear takes over all logical decisions.

Edit 08:55 | the high break would have reached to the min. +5 at least. It barely reached to to a +10 so far. So i guess i should be out already and don't be greedy or now assume we have some of the rare trending days and stay in, wait and hope for the killer move of +231 Pips and more. Doesn't feels good/right to trade without any real plan.



Edit, 09:00 | Maybe one of the rare trending days where price doesn't instantly collapses again after breaking the high/low of the setup and will keep going up now. Moved SL to the low trigger because i have to go now and can't longer monitor it live. So its a -13 Pips SL now and price is moving, i am up about 12 Pips while i am writing.

Edit, 09:07 | While i was writing i am no longer up +12 but only just about +5. My "bias" is already changing again to maybe not a "trending" day... Have to leave the computer for now. I guess once i am back this afternoon this trade will be stopped out. These set and forget trades backing the hundreds of pips while riding the "trend" with 1 entry seems to work only for the YouTube Gurus.

You might also want to check the economic calendar before you enter a trade without any clear plan (which is repeating madness by the way...) BOE interest rate today!
There are plenty of pivot trade plans, just pick one and stick to it for 100 live trades. Size to make 0.2% per day. Increase as you become more professional in your approach.

Thanks Fagin.

I do look at the economic calendar before entering a trade but so far only in a way to check if there is a high impact news event announced for the time i enter or most likely would be actively in the trade. With the BillyBar that would be 08:15 UK time and targeting the 5 Pips it actually shouldn't take much longer than a few minutes to know i am either stopped out or made it there. So until today i only stayed away if spotting such higher impact news to be scheduled for 08-09 UK time.

The BOE is scheduled at 12:00 UK time to me. So it still gave almost 4 hours of room until there.

Otherwise i do not know what to look out for in case of economic events and how to include these into my trading plan/decisions. The technical analysing stuff of doing the right things in case of where to place my entry and where to exit is already hard enough for me to get. I know fundamentals are the real moving factor for the currencies but not sure if diving into that any further would be a help or more like a additional barrier for me, totally confusing me at the end.

Because there is only one setup/trade for me with the BillyBar setup and i would like to reach my goals to at least some extend there is not much room for leaving out a day and missing out a potential profit where the losses could be easily much higher IF realizing them to my account and stop right there.

But that's the struggle i have so far nobody told me. Sadly Billy is not here at the moment so he might could comment on it again but as far as i understood him he also was trading it more like a robot without worrying about the news too much while targeting the +5 Pips fixed TP after the actual high/low break.

He said to have done so to earn a living from the +5 Pips on the BillyBar without any compounding stuff, scaling into entries, re-entering or similar. Just that he says to be good at "fixing" these fails. His "main" trade or what he used to call it. So even the fact he posted and talked about other "scalping" trades a lot that is all i assumed until here would be needed to realize to trade full time for a 'living" like that. Making x numbers of more pips or % of maybe even lower the trade size on various other trades and/or compounding these profits i never combined into my thoughts. So my calculation is based on 5 Pips a day that would be 100 Pips in a perfect month ended up each day at +5 net after broker fees.

My intuition tells me that it's either not the complete truths or he then really had a fixed routine/plan to know what to do after a fail. Otherwise it looks like madness to me, doing so at the size he said to enter the trade. He said to lock-in these fails but i couldn't find a single chart in this thread yet of how he then used to come out of such "locked" trade without risking his house again on it with the next steps, using martin gale tactics or similar. He said to have his initial entry placed at 1%/Pip. So a range of the BillyBar he entered at 30 Pips for example he would be down -30% based on such calculation. If price goes there, giving him about 70% in the account left to "fix" it. "Dynamic Grid" or so is also what he used to mention i think but without really ever describing it or showed some chart pictures. Now understand the "contradiction" i earlier mentioned it gave to me? But no offense. All good.

Yes. There are plenty, and that's exactly the problem. All saying something different of what to do but none of them is also telling you where your stop loss should to be in harmony with the entry strategy as well as your risk/reward. You say to target 0.2% a day. So based on a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 i should also risk a max. of 0.2% a day. So i could then risk the full 0.2% without splitting it at one entry per day and either make it to the 0.2% by the end of the day or lost it, then stop for the day, waiting for the next day. It could also mean risking -300% with each entry to make it to the +0.2% a day or risk -0.05% and have 4 tries/entries.

So a 0.2% on a 10k account would allow to risk a $20. I could afford to place a stop loss at -2 Pips distance away trading at 1 lots. I could afford to place a stop loss at -20 Pips and trade at 0,10 lots or i could afford to place a stop loss at -200 Pips for the entry and trade 0.01 lots. Mhh.

Now what after i did the 100 live trades like you suggest, got a 60% win rate and made money for a happy meal after 5 months of placing 1 trade like that every day. (5 x 20 days x 1 entry = 100 trades). Does that mean once i scale up to a larger trade size the outcome will roughly stay the same? It should be in a perfect world right? But it also would at least require to have exact entry/exit criteria i could then repeat doing so for all these days and not just some.

Well i don't know yet. I also thought of getting such funded account like FTMO or similar crooks (oops, i mean companies) are offering but it's exactly like you said, without having a real plan it doesn't even makes sense signing up for a trial phase. My trial by the way ended today and i lost it because of not reaching the profit target. My win rate otherwise was good over 85% for 10 trades i did but my profits are small so reaching such a profit target of 5% for 20 trading days and then doing so again for another 60 days until i would be finally "funded" and could keep trading for these drawdown rules but without having any profit target to reach. Sounds quiet good because i then wouldn't have the additional mental stress of losing my own money doing something completely stupid and might could help me while not also having to trade only for a happy meal. But yes without any plan for that, no chance.

I decided to get out of the BillyBar trade i placed this morning for a profit of +9 Pips after it seemed to have "stalled" there. I actually didn't want to touch it but without having a clear take profit target and the upcoming news around it looked to me odds are much higher price will get back to the low of the setup again instead of rising much higher. It then would have stopped me out, so why further risking that. +9 is good.

I am done for the day. Will have a walk now to the city and get some new coffee, then continue reading the "secrets of the pivot boss". Adieu, take care of you.

There is a reason this thread is here and not in Trading Discussion, Trading System, etc.

Yes, i am sorry. It's not in my intention to inflate the thread with my noobish trading relevant questions. Lets do some YouTube.

Yaaawwwwwnnnnn...

Off to the races. Where are you, Claudia?

Mine for the day is one traded system race in the 3:40 Yarmouth, which includes a decent EW worth-a-looker in Fen Tiger 7.4/2.3 for those so inclined.

I'm here - be back to usual tomorrow. Good luck with the horses

Fen Tiger stayed in the long grass but no worries, as race overall paid out +5. All good.

+13.8 off a quickie end of UK day.

Just took 16 from G/U. Still no William ?

I was cut to pieces on nasdaq - made newer high on a "breakout" twice - and got me twice. I stopped for the day then saw your post- bummer

With 'good behaviour' he might be out soon

I think this may be a new record for him.

@Stev1929.

Just a quick question regarding the pivots if you read this. So now after the day is almost over its probably easy to see and do right, you might get influenced by the right side price action. But let me try.

Price touched the first resistance level above the daily pivot point for about a 20 times on my M15 chart for today so far.

So i am not sure how i would create a trading plan based this information. I guess there is even more criteria to it than simply waiting for price to touch such level to make it profitable. It might be a close above/below, then again it could be different if that is a M1 candle close or H1 close.

Also no idea about trading times and risk management. It could be me looking all day long and enter on every touch or close of price at such level never sleeping and scanning 20 different markets. It could be me entering 1 time only and thats it, win or lose and wait for the next day.

Hi Iddd, myself i would have longed from the touch of the weekly pivot at 8.45 and out on the first touch of M-R1 after watching it pull back so sharply. then i would have waited, just to see the reaction around that level. Would have longed again at the 11.00am bar and got stopped out, then walk away. When you've been watching price action for years you can tell pretty quick when its going to be choppy and you can either play with the devil or see it for what it is and walk away till later on when US opens.
Always remember, you dont have to trade a particular fx pair or index each and every day, its so easy to get locked onto a pair with tunnel vision, there's no shame in walking away and looking at another pair that has more momentum, this is a business and we're in this to make a living.
My risk management is this, i trade £1 per £1000 held in my account, i put a trade on without a physical SL, but a very strong mental SL of 8 pips no matter what. As soon as price moves more than 8 pips in my direction i put a SL in at B/E and let it do what it does, and yes i get a few B/E stops hit each day but i dont mind, rather that than losses!
I usually try to anticipate where price is going (i have 3 independent pivot programs running on both FTSE and DAX) to give me perspective, put a TP there and if momentum is strong i'll walk away and monitor it on my phone or if its choppy i'll sit with it a kill the trade when it looks like its run out of steam. Thats it

For entertainment purposes. It also covers a closer look at the business model of FTMO. Maybe of interest for some or you.

Haven‘t watched it my self yet but here is a link, can’t open it from my current device/location.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...1/instatraders

All about 13.30 I guess.

Anyway it's Friday so here's a starter ...

Wake up Billy it's been too long now. The thread is still alive but a bit quiet.

Lem I'm having a horsey day after the NFP nonsense. The decent meets (Haydock and Newmarket) are evenings which is a shame. Oh well going to be a long day.

Won't let me edit the post above. Very slow day so far. Pivot seems to be acting as a sort of support. It's a be patient day.