BillyBar failed. High broke and moved +4.6.
Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout
- #59,161
- Aug 2, 2021 6:35am Aug 2, 2021 6:35am
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: lost in the void | 2,977 Posts
- #59,162
- Edited 7:21am Aug 2, 2021 7:05am | Edited 7:21am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Claudia - Golden Hind looks interesting in the 4:00 Newcastle. For a punt or trade, Allegranza could be a possible EW at value. I stress, possible, lol.
Added: Sambucca Spirit in the 6:07 as well. Well backed and actually stops me trading this as it has steamed in so much but hey, that's racing, right?
Added: Sambucca Spirit in the 6:07 as well. Well backed and actually stops me trading this as it has steamed in so much but hey, that's racing, right?
- #59,163
- Aug 2, 2021 10:37am Aug 2, 2021 10:37am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Claudia - Golden Hind looks interesting in the 4:00 Newcastle. For a punt or trade, Allegranza could be a possible EW at value. I stress, possible, lol. Added: Sambucca Spirit in the 6:07 as well. Well backed and actually stops me trading this as it has steamed in so much but hey, that's racing, right?
Did salvage the day with a trade out of the small ew I had on Allegranza, so green at least. One to keep an eye on, as led well for a long way. Firm ground better, maybe? Tapeta runs slow.
- #59,166
- Aug 3, 2021 7:53am Aug 3, 2021 7:53am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Looking like a bust out on the HK50 soon, for anyone interested. H1 gives a nice view. Spike down, then bust long? Either that, or a push through above and hold before going on. We'll see.
The blue rectangle is where we were at previous post.
- #59,167
- Aug 3, 2021 7:58am Aug 3, 2021 7:58am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
The Billy Bar from this morning. Long Bias for me.
- #59,170
- Aug 3, 2021 10:15am Aug 3, 2021 10:15am
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: lost in the void | 2,977 Posts
{quote} Market context might help out here.
I am not sure what you mean by "Market Context". I already had a look for the 00-04 UK time where price touched to the high as a "bias" to only go long. Did it help? Nope. Then you had the other "bias" where price was at same time below the Daily Pivot Point. So what now, only go long, go short, do nothing?
I scrolled back the setup for weeks and months according to the Daily Pivot Point as well as to the 00-04 range. Both doesn't really give any clear increasement in probability to success. Also often they contradict each other. Yes sometimes it might work but then sometimes it doesn't. It's about 50/50. So using that as a further influence factor of in which direction to only to enter would only make sense to me if it then would at least increase my odds drastically. Otherwise it's just giving more headache to me, more clutter having to deal with in the moment of making a simple decision of buy or sell or do nothing of it.
Yes, i think there were AUD bank holidays yesterday. I noticed it. Should it affect me trading GBP/USD? I don't know but i donīt think so.
Otherwise not sure what you mean by Market Context
I am trying to get one simple strategy to work for me that is advertised to be as working.
My goal would be to make a 5 Pips/% a day which Billy said to have consistently achieved trading this one setup but would be already happy with 5 Pips by the end of the week or even month. But yes, it obviously is not going to work out like that, only trading the BillyBar setup a day where you have around 20 days in a month, 5 days a week. One loss will easily destroy all your past wins and/or even lead back to negative pips/%, drawdown. So at leats if you then not able to fix it.
So only way i can currently think of to still make it work for me is to either find a clear fixing plan OR to find a complete new strategy for me where the winners will take care of the losers by it self after applying a fixed risk/reward ratio where a lot of traders seem to be fan of. But it's hard to find such strategy for me. A lot i find is then again only based on pure subjective reading of the chart with no fixed scheduled trading times for the day, no maths, no statistics, no clear entries/exits, no clear nothing.
Here is the BillyBar for today. See that larger wick on the setup candle? So that would have been situation again where i would then probably have left out entering on it after trying to read the price action while also looking at the 00-04 range that touched the high of the range with another wick. So only go long right? Then what about the daily pivot point? Price barely closed below it (could be different again on H1, H4, D1 and so on...) So only go short? Well price broke the high and reached to the statistical backed +5 Pips min. target. Yes even a lot more after that. But do you know this at this time where you maybe already entered at $100/Point to make +5. Do you then stay in until it might come back to break even or even worst making it a -10/11 Pips loss touching the low of the setup again? So i think that's why it's important ot have all these possible steps you can do already planned out in advance BEFORE you have entered.
Anyways hope you have a nice day all.
{quote} Hi Wizz. Hope you are fine.
- #59,172
- Aug 3, 2021 1:38pm Aug 3, 2021 1:38pm
- Joined Feb 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,488 Posts
{quote} Hi Wizz. Hope you are fine.
- #59,174
- Aug 3, 2021 4:16pm Aug 3, 2021 4:16pm
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: lost in the void | 2,977 Posts
Sorry, got called away mid post. See the screenshot for what I am talking about.As far as the pivot points and 0-4 ranges go: I look at new ideas all the time, collect stats, see if I can find an edge, if I don't I drop it ,often forever, or until a fresh perspective brings sheds new light on it. Just my opinion and way of looking at things. Hope it helps.
What you describe and marked on the chart (thanks for your time) are exactly the things i am trying to avoid as much as possible for my trading. So for instance looking left on the chart in such way does not really make sense to me if trading a statistical proven strategy. I otherwise wouldn't know the advantage of such statistics if constantly giving such statistics no chance to play out in my favor by altering them and doing such individual filtering process every time i receive a setup.
I know there will be always single losing trades and there is nothing wrong with it to me as log as in the long run the wins will cover for them. So at best doing so and leaving a net profit for me after x period after all fees. Where X period to me would be considered a week/month or maybe even a quarter. However like said, i am not trying to grow my account to infinity sum or % over x unknown time period and then pray for the lord the broker will accept it and allow me to withdraw the 2 Millions of profit that might were made during the 10 years period or so. So i could then make a "living" out of it in that way. It's quiet easy if there is no pressure to do something at all. No pressure to press buy or sell to make money, not taking any risk.
Back to the chart example. Now lets me ask you this. You say there is a 1H supply zone. But isn't that a bit subjective again and backed by nothing else than what you out of your personal experience think it is or want it to be? I mean unless there is not any indicator/tool/book that every single retail trader bank out there would use to describe that area to be a supply zone what does it then makes it a supply zone? Maybe its a resistance zone for somebody else looking at it from a different perspective / time interval.
My mission is really about to make money from trading, nothing else i am interested in. I am not interested in becoming a hindsight professional chart reading guru knowing each and every indicator, price action formation/pattern, support resistance, supply, demand, smart money, dumb money and what else there is you could potentially know about after reading thousands of books, listening to YouTube traders all driving a Lambo from their pure trading results and so on
I also donīt understand why you say to look out for new ideas all the time. I mean if you have something that simply works wouldn't that be enough? If i would know that for example the BillyBar setup in what ever way is leaving me with a few positive pips by the end of the months it would be simply a matter of scaling into that and giving 1 Pip more monetary value to make more profit from it. Why a 2,3 or 12 more setups/strategies needed then?
- #59,176
- Aug 4, 2021 7:59am Aug 4, 2021 7:59am
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: lost in the void | 2,977 Posts
BillyBar today failed to reach the +5 TP although the 00-04 was touched/broken to the long side earlier as well as price was above the daily pivot point giving it a bullish sentiment too. Don't want to argue it. Just posting this as an further example that using such additional confirmation doesn't necessarily do better.
At least the second break then worked out for the +5 then.
Let's assume this is my only setup/method i trade and I still want to end up +5 or at least break even by the end of the day what are my options?
- Martin Gale and increasing position size on the next break so a new +5 win on the next break will get me back to break even. In case my initial position size on the first break was 10 lots, to be able to call it a day after i reached to it, at a failed range of 13 Pips (to include spread/com) i am down -$1300 then. Now to cover that i go short on the next break looking for the statistical backed +5 again. I need to increase my position size to 26 lots to be back to break even if the next entry works out like planned. Still ok, but what if that fails another time or a sudden news spike/slippage and i am more like then -80 Pips at 26 lots? Hmm.
- Increase my take profit target for the next entry/entries by the amount of pips that i lost on the first try. I would then at least need to make 13 Pips in this example. So already more than twice than the initial +5. It just about reached that today but also often it doesn't and it needs far more breaks then to go anywhere. If you then consistently enter on the next break again you can easily be down a lot more pips depending on the size of the range.
- Having a additional setup/strategy for the rest of the day or calling it a day after a loss at -13 Pips and stop for the day. So first executing the next entry then with the next day and hope at the end of a month the winners will at least compensate for these losses. But the winners even on a 80-90% strike rate month with almost no fails would be most likely eaten up by a few of such losses and including the broker fees more like realistically you end up net negative even having such a good strike rate and almost no fails.
- #59,177
- Aug 4, 2021 8:20am Aug 4, 2021 8:20am
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: lost in the void | 2,977 Posts
On the FTMO challenge i think it's quiet hard to reach the profit target in the available time period of 30 days? I took a trial and here's what my results looks like so far.
All these 8 trades were based on no specific strategy/method. So hard to even repeat that.
Today would be the last day for me and still over 300 EUR i would need to make to pass it. I am lucky i haven't took the BillyBar setup this morning and counting a second loss here. Then you have day's where there is a bank holidays, news or you simply have no time to trade making it even harder ro reach such goal while not exceeding the drawdown paramters.
With only the BillyBar as a setup/strategy it almost looks impossible to me to pass such challenge.
All these 8 trades were based on no specific strategy/method. So hard to even repeat that.
Today would be the last day for me and still over 300 EUR i would need to make to pass it. I am lucky i haven't took the BillyBar setup this morning and counting a second loss here. Then you have day's where there is a bank holidays, news or you simply have no time to trade making it even harder ro reach such goal while not exceeding the drawdown paramters.
With only the BillyBar as a setup/strategy it almost looks impossible to me to pass such challenge.
- #59,180
- Aug 4, 2021 3:57pm Aug 4, 2021 3:57pm
- | Joined May 2009 | Status: lost in the void | 2,977 Posts
{quote} If it helps, from my pivot perspective had i traded GU today (which i dont as im purely a FTSE and DAX trader) these setups would have triggered a buy and sell from me without question. Its all about behaviour at crucial pivot areas, particularly MS-1, MS-2, DPV, MR-1 and MR-2
Sporadically doing trades with no real weekly or monthly targets instead of growing my account and compound is not what i try to solve. I am trading break even already for a long time but making x min. number of consistent profits during a limited time period like a week/mont is what i am trying to crack. Its not so important to me if that would be 5 Pips or 50 Pips a month (after broker fees). It should be consistent and based on a repeatable trading plan for me i can execute day in day out including a solid risk and money management.
Thanks again. Cheers.