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AUD/USD

  • #107,001
  • Jul 28, 2021 8:21am Jul 28, 2021 8:21am
Quoting Mcbeaners
bias for me is short over long. but i'll wait the fomc and see what comes.


cant find a mention in general news of the 99.9% expectation aus rates will drop to zero next week - it shows in the RBA rate tracker though

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the trap for an easy push long as they start selling and then a big sell off into stops is making even more sense,
grist for the mill
  • #107,002
  • Jul 28, 2021 10:04am Jul 28, 2021 10:04am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Hi your still going .just going throu my file to see who is still going that I liked posts of . Regards E
It's an old comment Elbert, but yeah I'm still alive
  • #107,003
  • Aug 1, 2021 11:43am Aug 1, 2021 11:43am
Quoting JackJones
{quote} cant find a mention in general news of the 99.9% expectation aus rates will drop to zero next week - it shows in the RBA rate tracker though {image} the trap for an easy push long as they start selling and then a big sell off into stops is making even more sense,
The current value is sitting on a 100 WEEK Moving Average. A very strong support. Expect a swing up fro here.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #107,004
  • Aug 1, 2021 6:42pm Aug 1, 2021 6:42pm
Struggling with the additional “COVID” factor in markets.
I feel aud should be moving up on fundamentals. Ore prices are flying China is still manufacturing plenty.
was obvious we’d see this low again (my buy was .7340)
id like to think we’ll see a test of .75 ish again if it can (break through the .7420 mark) in the next 72 hours.
aud interest rate announcement tomorrow which will see the rba buying more bonds (prediction only) but will the market see that as weakness or a chance of longer prosperity
  • #107,005
  • Aug 1, 2021 6:54pm Aug 1, 2021 6:54pm
Quoting JackJones
{quote} cant find a mention in general news of the 99.9% expectation aus rates will drop to zero next week - it shows in the RBA rate tracker though {image} the trap for an easy push long as they start selling and then a big sell off into stops is making even more sense,

this is fake news. Aus won’t drop 8nterest rates any further. Just go back to buy8ng 5b bonds per week
  • #107,006
  • Aug 1, 2021 9:12pm Aug 1, 2021 9:12pm
Quoting Brisbane1
Struggling with the additional “COVID” factor in markets. I feel aud should be moving up on fundamentals. Ore prices are flying China is still manufacturing plenty. was obvious we’d see this low again (my buy was .7340) id like to think we’ll see a test of .75 ish again if it can (break through the .7420 mark) in the next 72 hours. aud interest rate announcement tomorrow which will see the rba buying more bonds (prediction only) but will the market see that as weakness or a chance of longer prosperity
Please state the source of your fundamentals; we know your feelings but need more.

People get banned for posting "fake" news, check Alan Jones / Sky News / Twitter, next you will be saying the interest rates actually are going up.

You might be just talking up your trades but I doubt that will change the market.

Welcome to FF, I'm just out of Brisbane
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #107,007
  • Aug 1, 2021 10:46pm Aug 1, 2021 10:46pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Please state the source of your fundamentals; we know your feelings but need more. People get banned for posting "fake" news, check Alan Jones / Sky News / Twitter, next you will be saying the interest rates actually are going up. You might be just talking up your trades but I doubt that will change the market. Welcome to FF, I'm just out of Brisbane {image}{image}
fundamentals was the wrong wrong word. I’m fairly new to trading. I meant Australia seems to have more upside based on its agreements with China. I felt they were more fundamental than speculative. we also have such a minor covid issue.

our covid “success” appears to be a double edged sword though. We may be c9ming into concerns later than other countries.

Whilst my brother who has a strong economics background feels we will see interest rate rises in late 2022 to early 2023. I stand by the rba’s saying that they won’t happen till 2024. But we have seen some banks (ie westpac) no longer offering their 1.99 rates over a 4 year period.

I mean auction clearance rates of 78.2% (quoted for last weekend by realestate.com.au) are pretty unheard of in brisbane.

all these seem pretty positive signs to me. But my business is property so I may be biased
  • #107,008
  • Aug 2, 2021 1:55am Aug 2, 2021 1:55am
Surely if it doesn’t break .7350 soon the only way is down ?
  • #107,009
  • Aug 2, 2021 3:46am Aug 2, 2021 3:46am
Quoting Brisbane1
{quote} this is fake news. Aus won’t drop 8nterest rates any further. Just go back to buy8ng 5b bonds per week
You're fake news
grist for the mill
  • #107,010
  • Aug 2, 2021 4:02am Aug 2, 2021 4:02am
Quoting JackJones
{quote} You're fake news
99.9% predict a drop this week. I’ll give you 10/1 odds. My 100k aud vs your 10k the rate doesn’t change tomorrow if you are so confident.
  • #107,011
  • Aug 2, 2021 6:17am Aug 2, 2021 6:17am
Quoting Brisbane1
{quote} 99.9% predict a drop this week. I’ll give you 10/1 odds. My 100k aud vs your 10k the rate doesn’t change tomorrow if you are so confident.
"they" = whomever they are to you, "big boys" , "market makers" , "big banks" , "insert conspiracy theory here"

are certainly pumping it up today; what are the odds it drops off after the "news"?



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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #107,012
  • Aug 2, 2021 6:20am Aug 2, 2021 6:20am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} "they" = whomever they are to you, "big boys" , "market makers" , "big banks" , "insert conspiracy theory here" are certainly pumping it up today; what are the odds it drops off after the "news"? {image}
are you on the bulls side with me?
  • #107,013
  • Aug 2, 2021 8:00am Aug 2, 2021 8:00am
Quoting Brisbane1
{quote} fundamentals was the wrong wrong word. I’m fairly new to trading. I meant Australia seems to have more upside based on its agreements with China. I felt they were more fundamental than speculative. we also have such a minor covid issue. our covid “success” appears to be a double edged sword though. We may be c9ming into concerns later than other countries. Whilst my brother who has a strong economics background feels we will see interest rate rises in late 2022 to early 2023. I stand by the rba’s saying that they won’t happen till 2024....
comon Brisvegas, you should know better
  • #107,014
  • Aug 2, 2021 5:48pm Aug 2, 2021 5:48pm
Quoting blaze1
{quote} are you on the bulls side with me?
I was looking for USD strength and watching the major pairs to get in sync but not happening.

So, I guess with GBPUSD is leading the charge higher, if AUDUSD aligns today, things will become a bit clear on the high timeframes.

Already seeing the USDCHF and USDJPY heading lower

Stay alert
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #107,015
  • Edited 7:02pm Aug 2, 2021 6:47pm | Edited 7:02pm
Quoting JackJones
{quote} cant find a mention in general news of the 99.9% expectation aus rates will drop to zero next week - it shows in the RBA rate tracker though {image} the trap for an easy push long as they start selling and then a big sell off into stops is making even more sense,
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somethings odd with asx, they now have 28th July at 83%

still decent odds
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Quoting Brisbane1
{quote} 99.9% predict a drop this week. I’ll give you 10/1 odds. My 100k aud vs your 10k the rate doesn’t change tomorrow if you are so confident.
who is confident? it is just information, can't be 100% of anything, they sold it last month and I told you so, so too late now, cant trust these bankers, like politicians and developers, the news they give you is more than likely what they want you to hear

might be a shock and awe tactic by fed, double-speak and now media manipulation is a tool of the free market dont you know, debt creation through slight of hand, a balance sheet entry -- we will see, i will get a return regardless of your chest beating, so best of luck
grist for the mill
  • #107,016
  • Aug 2, 2021 11:54pm Aug 2, 2021 11:54pm
Quoting Brisbane1
{quote} this is fake news. Aus won’t drop 8nterest rates any further. Just go back to buy8ng 5b bonds per week
this is an “I told you so” moment
  • #107,017
  • Aug 3, 2021 3:00am Aug 3, 2021 3:00am
0.7400 a sell ?
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #107,018
  • Aug 3, 2021 3:05am Aug 3, 2021 3:05am
Quoting eurusd-thijs
0.7400 a sell ?
im still long hoping to see a jump when us kicks in and reads rba statement. I’m leaning towards .7450 and taking profit
  • #107,019
  • Edited 3:34am Aug 3, 2021 3:20am | Edited 3:34am
the point is brisbane1, did you make any money on it? or did you miss and get slipped 10? as for the asx charts on interest futures, wtf

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the long grind low is still on the books imo, although a test of 7440 then 7480 in short term if it gets buyers here, does not look like a good sell at this price so will see what the US wants to do
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grist for the mill
  • #107,020
  • Aug 3, 2021 3:41am Aug 3, 2021 3:41am
Quoting Brisbane1
Struggling with the additional “COVID” factor in markets. I feel aud should be moving up on fundamentals. Ore prices are flying China is still manufacturing plenty. was obvious we’d see this low again (my buy was .7340) id like to think we’ll see a test of .75 ish again if it can (break through the .7420 mark) in the next 72 hours. aud interest rate announcement tomorrow which will see the rba buying more bonds (prediction only) but will the market see that as weakness or a chance of longer prosperity


this was my buy
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