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  • #137,041
  • Jul 29, 2021 3:40am Jul 29, 2021 3:40am
Closed my latest long here at 1.1877.. I will wait on side lines now.. No selling yet! Beware!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #137,042
  • Jul 29, 2021 3:42am Jul 29, 2021 3:42am
The Daltons
  • #137,043
  • Jul 29, 2021 3:46am Jul 29, 2021 3:46am
Quoting Traderview
{quote} Yes. But don't exclude anything. Try to get as much as you can. From 1.1850 is all good to sell. But you need to look at the bigger picture i.e monthly close below 1.18.
Aaah, I see. Okay. And monthly close below 1.18 is not entirely likely unless bears call all their power to arms swiftly.
  • #137,044
  • Jul 29, 2021 3:48am Jul 29, 2021 3:48am
Looking from fundamental side i still feel that last 5 days ( included today) are still only correction in downtred, beause yesterday FOMC was for me totaly neutral, and nothing changed from since FOMC in June when rethoric was completly changed versus past.

Bulls should be very careful today, beacuse will be info about advanced GDP in USA and forecast is very, very strong so any standard devation for any side ( after good other data i think GDP will beat forecast) in this data will make huge volatility and tommorow are very importnat data about CPI, so be carfule.

My TP in long is 1.1891 and i will look for short opportunity afterwards.

Look also for 10y USA bonds...they totaly didn't move after yesterday FOMC.
Everyone makes mistakes, but only few use equity management.
  • #137,045
  • Jul 29, 2021 3:57am Jul 29, 2021 3:57am
I am waiting to see if current H1 candle can close above 1.1877 or not.... Very important for more bullishness! 2 more minutes..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #137,046
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:00am Jul 29, 2021 4:00am
Quoting yvestrcz
{quote} Aaah, I see. Okay. And monthly close below 1.18 is not entirely likely unless bears call all their power to arms swiftly.
Looks like it was a plan for before Powell.
Now as high as you can could become 1.1950
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #137,047
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:00am Jul 29, 2021 4:00am
This close signals more bullishness.. I don't touch the sell button!!!!

Based on H1, I have 1.1889 as main bull target.. Once/IF they get there 1.1900 and higher is easy..

Meanwhile, 1.18605 is nearest support and buy area now..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #137,048
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:02am Jul 29, 2021 4:02am
Also, the sentiment, except of wild selling animals @ FF for instance, is now neutral, balanced.
Even Saxo guys who are known for selling bias, are balanced.

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  • #137,049
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:45am Jul 29, 2021 4:45am
I think it's time to sell atleast till we get to 1.18216
Stops should be at 1.19022
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #137,050
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:45am Jul 29, 2021 4:45am
Quoting fxsport
{image} Ok I'm being a polyanna here - overly optimistic but given the PA of today I think this is possible (I've got my $ on the line) Long on the breakout from 1.1820. Holding until 1.1880 with 1.1850 projected as the first resistance area. {image}{image}
Got out from yesterday at 1.1880.

I think that 1.19 will be touched and breached today - the question is how many orders are tied up at 1.19?

I believe that When it get's there a massive pop will take PA up to 1.1920 before heading back down to 1.19.

Right now waiting to load up more at 1.1870-1.1899
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #137,051
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:45am Jul 29, 2021 4:45am
Quoting Austyno
I think it's time to sell atleast till we get to 1.18216 Stops should be at 1.19022
Nope... You shouldn't.. Let's see how many here can control their finger.. or is controlled by their finger
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #137,052
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:51am Jul 29, 2021 4:51am
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13640360
=========================
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  • #137,053
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:56am Jul 29, 2021 4:56am
Quoting yvestrcz
Also, the sentiment, except of wild selling animals @ FF for instance, is now neutral, balanced. Even Saxo guys who are known for selling bias, are balanced. {image}
This is why - PA is at a crux

Fundamental analysis = Sell dollars
Technical analysis = buy EU based on daily charts.

Here's the problem for most people (MYSELF INCLUDED). Probability.

When PA makes large moves many people (MYSELF) like to scalp and play re-tracements. It's quick fund and when done correctly ears money. The problem - our personal bias.

There are way too many BEARS on here now when frankly I see absolutely no reason to be bearish given how PA is acting. While I can make a case for dollar strength in risk off cases I don't see any risk upcoming.

Remember the way the stock market keeps going higher? It climbs a wall or worry. Concerns for EU weakness:

1. Covid-19 delta variant - huge elephant in the room. For USA this is a nothing burger. For remainder of world possible problems but USA is the 900 pound gorilla. Unfortunately it doesn't matter how bad thinks are in 3rd world countries the stock market churns higher.

2. Taper of FED - WHEN this occurs and it will Markets will correct. The EARLIEST I see this is NOVEMBER/DECEMBER.

3. Inflation - this will be the biggest topic for the next 4 weeks and when September gets here I will probably have changed my sentiment due to the seasonality correction that we get in September/October.

Finally my perspective on price will vary greatly from yours because I rarely keep positions more than 24 hours. So yesterday I had longs and today I'm looking for longss as well but I have a huge (for me) sell order at 1.1920.

Sorry for the long post just wanted to explain my zig-zag approach. Good luck all and most importantly a thank you to Ata for providing a great thread for people to share and learn.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #137,054
  • Jul 29, 2021 4:58am Jul 29, 2021 4:58am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Nope... You shouldn't.. Let's see how many here can control their finger.. or is controlled by their finger
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...because you never know - until you do!
  • #137,055
  • Edited 5:18am Jul 29, 2021 4:59am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting lucky1359
This is now Purely Bulls & Bears Bulls want to Pull till 1.1880 to 1.1890 with help of the News showing everything is Green in Euro Economy But Important News are there in USD Area also and Bears want to pull back @ 1.1825 to 1.1815
Touched @ 1.1880 and came little back

Now wait for Dead Cat Bounce near GER HICP News to Breach the Upper Levels

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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How many Pips can it move up from here
Fire at Will if 1.1905 - 1.1910 Levels are Breached

Match the Levels as per your Trading Style and be Blessed with Green Pips
  • #137,056
  • Jul 29, 2021 5:02am Jul 29, 2021 5:02am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Nope... You shouldn't.. Let's see how many here can control their finger.. or is controlled by their finger
My reason for selling is as follows,
We are in a verified resistance on 4hrs on my system and in a supply zone.
200 ema on 4hrs is currently resisting
30 ema on daily is also resisting ( I have a moving average rule that says, when 30 ema crosses 200 ema, the next sell signal is when the price touches the 30ema, the other one will be when the price touches the 200 ema)
There is no much room to go up on my system based on weekly levels, (the next level to test will be 3rd resistance).

Meanwhile I have booked my long with a total of +100 pips .


I would love to see how this sell plays out, won't be surprised if today closes bearish with a pin bar
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #137,057
  • Jul 29, 2021 5:17am Jul 29, 2021 5:17am
Quoting Austyno
{quote} My reason for selling is as follows, We are in a verified resistance on 4hrs on my system and in a supply zone. 200 ema on 4hrs is currently resisting 30 ema on daily is also resisting ( I have a moving average rule that says, when 30 ema crosses 200 ema, the next sell signal is when the price touches the 30ema, the other one will be when the price touches the 200 ema) There is no much room to go up on my system based on weekly levels, (the next level to test will be 3rd resistance). Meanwhile I have booked my long with a total of +100 pips...
I hear you.. My take on this is very basic: the dotted trendline is resistance yes but I am not convinced yet that it will hold.. We must see! BUT even if it holds with what purpose are we selling? Just to get a few bucks until 1.1860 area??? To me that is not enough profit target at the moment.. I rather prefer to wait and to buy dips.. If we have a breakout to the upside even better..

But these are just my thoughts brother.. You are the captain of your ship.. You decide.. Good luck

*The most important thing I learned throughout the years is that the latest wave (latest push) is always the most profitable.. But also the most brutal if you are in the wrong direction or have pressed the contra-trade button too early..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #137,058
  • Jul 29, 2021 5:23am Jul 29, 2021 5:23am
Truly Said about Uptrend

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13618224
  • #137,059
  • Jul 29, 2021 5:31am Jul 29, 2021 5:31am
Quoting lucky1359
Truly Said about Uptrend https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13618224
Yes he anticipated the upcoming bulls nicely..

However... on the monthly chart below we MUST NOT forget that this bullish move is still only a part of a "retest" to previous highs after the breakout... Remember: as long as candles are below 1.2038 for upcoming month bears will always be lurking in the shadows..

Overall I play along with bulls for now BUT month has not ended yet.. 1.1818 can still be attacked.. So we must keep an eye on how deep any bearish pullback goes.. To me 1.1831 is still most important level for this month! A close above good for bulls.. a close below and bears are back with their claws.. Let's see..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
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