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  • #136,981
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:02pm Jul 28, 2021 1:02pm
Quoting Austyno
Observe what's happening on the daily timeframe and you notice that, the lows are very close to each other, today(FOMC) shouldn't be any different. I am still on the buy the dip basis and my view/bias was strengthen when we took out the highs of last week(bullish engulfing candle loading). Based on my experiences with FOMC, the price usually go for the extreme edges. In this case, the last hope for bulls based on my system is @ 1.17773. To cut long story short, I have a buy limit @ 1.17773 Sl 50 pips Tp @ 1.19191( a possibility but am skeptical....
Active
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #136,982
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:04pm Jul 28, 2021 1:04pm
No mention of tapering that I could see in the initial statement. I think the press conference will determine the direction.

Feels like this might be a mirror of the PA during the last ECB conference. Price shot up only to fall dramatically, let's see if this climbs dramatically.
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #136,983
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:07pm Jul 28, 2021 1:07pm
Bears already revealed too much.. If this drops further I would be really surprised..

I am planning to buy the dip but no rush.. I need to see a base first..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,984
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:09pm Jul 28, 2021 1:09pm
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  • #136,985
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:16pm Jul 28, 2021 1:16pm
Not much room for upside eurusd either with the statement.

"With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered." is said to be an important line.

from:

https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...eting-20210728
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #136,986
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:19pm Jul 28, 2021 1:19pm
Quoting eurusd-thijs
Not much room for upside eurusd either with the statement. "With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered." is said to be an important line. from: https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...eting-20210728
Agreed.. Once again we have to wait for monthly candle to close..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,987
  • Edited 1:43pm Jul 28, 2021 1:20pm | Edited 1:43pm
Quoting eurusd-thijs
Not much room for upside eurusd either with the statement. "With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered." is said to be an important line. from: https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...eting-20210728
I think the reaction will remain fairly flip-floppy/subdued until the presser. That's when they put a bit more meat on the bones, so to speak.

Update: There you have it. Powell just reiterated tapering is not yet being fully considered, any concrete plan to taper will be divulged "well in advance". Most of what he said was almost exactly the same as Lagarde's last statement.

Essentially, this is almost pound-for-pound a carbon-copy-counter to the ECB statement. Therefore it would make sense that PA reflects that and so far, it is.
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #136,988
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:25pm Jul 28, 2021 1:25pm
Quoting Endoephemera
Not quite the enthusiastic drop I was expecting. No clear base to go up from, but with high volatility a clear one may not be needed and plenty of contradicting signals from chart and retail positions. Not sure what to do with my core short from yesterday... So, basically I'm clueless ...but a little richer than this morning having closed some shorts.
I will listen to Ace of Base until I get a base
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,989
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:26pm Jul 28, 2021 1:26pm
All shorts closed
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Managing your lot size is the key
  • #136,990
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:33pm Jul 28, 2021 1:33pm
Based on H1, I would guess: If you are not long already, you should wait at least for a revisit to 1.1801...

Edit: It just happened
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,991
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:39pm Jul 28, 2021 1:39pm
It's like the guy is 1.1820
Attached Image
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #136,992
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:40pm Jul 28, 2021 1:40pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Based on H1, I would guess: If you are not long already, you should wait at least for a revisit to 1.1801... Edit: It just happened
You've been spot on today (as with most days, tbf) Great stuff.
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #136,993
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:41pm Jul 28, 2021 1:41pm
Let me translate:

Powell: Inflation could turn out to be higher

Translation: OMG.... Zombie apocalypse is comiiiing... The US$ is doooooomed... Our ship is going doooownnn... USA is not the best country in the world anymore.. We are gonna die...

...and so on and so forth.. you get the idea.. BUY Euro!
Attached Image
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,994
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:41pm Jul 28, 2021 1:41pm
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Lets see
usd index
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #136,995
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:43pm Jul 28, 2021 1:43pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Let me translate: Powell: Inflation could turn out to be higher Translation: OMG.... Zombie apocalypse is comiiiing... The US$ is doooooomed... Our ship is going doooownnn... USA is not the best country in the world anymore.. We are gonna die... ...and so on and so forth.. you get the idea.. BUY Euro!
LOL and we just spiked
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #136,996
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:52pm Jul 28, 2021 1:52pm
Now we could have 1.1816 as new base... Time will tell..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,997
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:53pm Jul 28, 2021 1:53pm
Quoting Kyuu
Just did a yolo buy at 1.1775 Edit: SL now 1.1770 (-5 pips) Edit 2: SL now BE.
You earned yourself the "best buy of the day" medal.. Kudos brother
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,998
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:54pm Jul 28, 2021 1:54pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} You earned yourself the "best buy of the day" medal.. Kudos brother
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #136,999
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:55pm Jul 28, 2021 1:55pm
Quoting Austyno
{quote}
Did you too? Wow I must have missed that.. Congrats
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #137,000
  • Jul 28, 2021 1:57pm Jul 28, 2021 1:57pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ok I'm being a polyanna here - overly optimistic but given the PA of today I think this is possible (I've got my $ on the line)

Long on the breakout from 1.1820. Holding until 1.1880 with 1.1850 projected as the first resistance area.
Attached Image
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...because you never know - until you do!
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