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  • #136,941
  • Jul 28, 2021 8:58am Jul 28, 2021 8:58am
Quoting yvestrcz
Hmm, 1.17925 is the bears' pain in the buttocks for now. I am starting to get the impression bulls are up and running, in control of this orchestra... but time will tell.
I could be the bear whisperer indeed...
  • #136,942
  • Jul 28, 2021 8:58am Jul 28, 2021 8:58am
I have 17837 as a major support, if it rejects, this will be a great buying level. Waiting to see some rejection first though.
  • #136,943
  • Jul 28, 2021 8:58am Jul 28, 2021 8:58am
Quoting MrsStarr86
{quote} Right at about 1812...I planned for it to possibly go as high as 18306, but when it shot past it and went up to 1840s, I closed thinking the bulls had finally showed up to party
Making your entry as an example..

Now.. I use fib 67.6 or 69.0.. doesn't matter actually just use something a little higher than classic fib 61.8...

Generally as I am showing on M15 chart, the logic should be to wait for a clash of powers.. fib XXX is the wall and price is the car... When price comes from below in our case we expect bulls to get exhausted at the wall.. Momentum will of course create some fluctuation but you get the point.. So before the point in time where you entered short there were actually some opportunities to do so.. I explained on chart.. In other words it is not a bad area to sell BUT you have to know when and why it would be better to sell..

In general, I stick to look at where price is coming from and how it is positioned towards the wall (fib level).. After the toss I look to enter into the direction of the bounce.. If order turns into 10 pips profit (based on M15) I try to quickly move my stop to break even.. If I don't get stopped out I then trail..

Anyway.. for me the main logic is to watch price action at fib 67.6 area..

So.. all that said... now notice how my fib level 1.1806 area has resisted well.. We must keep selling with same logic..

I hope it helps and adds to your skill..

*Please notice that fib 36.9 now also will act as support: 1.1783 area..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: M15_ThinkingProcess.png Size: 47 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,944
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:03am Jul 28, 2021 9:03am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Curious.....will you dare to follow that advice now? It could work.. But I personally will pass.. Closing my sell order and I prefer to wait on side lines now..
Well no, as soon as it crossed the 1.18 threshold I sat on my hands...and rightly so.
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #136,945
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:06am Jul 28, 2021 9:06am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Making your entry as an example.. Now.. I use fib 67.6 or 69.0.. doesn't matter actually just use something a little higher than classic fib 61.8... Generally as I am showing on M15 chart, the logic should be to wait for a clash of powers.. fib XXX is the wall and price is the car... When price comes from below in our case we expect bulls to get exhausted at the wall.. Momentum will of course create some fluctuation but you get the point.. So before you entered short there were actually some opportunities to do so.. I explained on chart.....

Wow!! Thank you so much for such a great explanation! Makes so much sense and you explained it very well. Very much so appreciated Ata!
  • #136,946
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:15am Jul 28, 2021 9:15am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Making your entry as an example.. Now.. I use fib 67.6 or 69.0.. doesn't matter actually just use something a little higher than classic fib 61.8... Generally as I am showing on M15 chart, the logic should be to wait for a clash of powers.. fib XXX is the wall and price is the car... When price comes from below in our case we expect bulls to get exhausted at the wall.. Momentum will of course create some fluctuation but you get the point.. So before the point in time where you entered short there were actually some opportunities to do so.....
Also, I normally will move and update my fibs based on the most recent high or low. I see on yours that you placed it on the high formed at 18306 and left it on your chart to observe the levels. I haven't kept a fibs on my chart for that length of time before so that's something new. I like that, thank you! Was that fibs drawn because that was the most recent high on the 4H or was it based on a different time frame? I actually think I may have drawn that fibs on the 4H but deleted it off because I wasn't sure if it was still valid with all the ranging up and down.
  • #136,947
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:18am Jul 28, 2021 9:18am
Quoting MrsStarr86
{quote} Also, I normally will move and update my fibs based on the most recent high or low. I see on yours that you placed it on the high formed at 18306 and left it on your chart to observe the levels. I haven't kept a fibs on my chart for that length of time before so that's something new. I like that, thank you! Was that fibs drawn because that was the most recent high on the 4H or was it based on a different time frame? I actually think I may have drawn that fibs on the 4H but deleted it off because I wasn't sure if it was still valid with all...
Good catch.. Why I left it that way is related with my logic of the type of every new high.. I need a new high that is at least able to touch fib 1.55 so that I can move my fib higher.. If the new high can't do that I assume we don't have a new high..

Anyway... we better go back to posting around EURUSD since methodology talk belongs to weekends or other threads.. Let's not distract members..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,948
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:22am Jul 28, 2021 9:22am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Good catch.. Why I left it that way is related with my logic of the type of every new high.. I need a new high that is at least able to touch fib 1.55 so that I can move my fib higher.. If the new high can't do that I assume we don't have a new high.. Anyway... we better go back to posting around EURUSD since methodology talk belongs to weekends or other threads.. Let's not distract members..

Gotcha! Thank you! Back to the EU chatter
  • #136,949
  • Edited 9:53am Jul 28, 2021 9:32am | Edited 9:53am
I'm out until after the statement and press conference I think. I have a feeling Powell might want to dial down the hawkishness this time around, considering the rising cases/slowdown of vaccination uptake. Talk of tapering may be placed on the back-burner while these uncertainties increase. Also with the EU having now caught up with its vaccination target and the impact that'll likely have on included economies across the Summer (provided the Delta variant doesn't run too rampant) the two could counter in favour of EUR. Then again, how much will it matter? Much of the market reaction comes down to interpretation doesn't it.

Either way, when it's this 50/50 with no clear signals it's way more of a gamble and I'm not up for that.
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #136,950
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:36am Jul 28, 2021 9:36am
Meanwhile on H4..

1.1801 is now acting like a pivot.. Let's see if bulls will allow bears to continue lower..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4_Status.png Size: 24 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,951
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:42am Jul 28, 2021 9:42am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
It sucks in more and more buyers who think this is the bottom of the dip..
Once again time proves that your caution was correct sir! Well done.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #136,952
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:45am Jul 28, 2021 9:45am
Quoting MrGuy
I'm out until after the statement I think. I have a feeling Powell might want to dial down the hawkishness this time around, considering the rising cases/slowdown of vaccination uptake. Talk of tapering may be placed on the back-burner while these uncertainties increase. Then again, how much will it matter? Much of the market reaction comes down to interpretation doesn't it. Either way, when it's this 50/50 with no clear signals it's way more of a gamble and I'm not up for that.
Attached Image
You are correct sir/madam.

As for myself - I don't have a clue what will happen at FOMC and Powell presser.

What I "think" is that by 4:00 pm EST 16:00 hours that the price of EU will be below 1.1800 and headed downward. JMO
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #136,953
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:45am Jul 28, 2021 9:45am
Meanwhile on H1..

1.1804 is now nearest resistance and sell area! (backed up by 1.1809)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1_Status.png Size: 32 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,954
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:45am Jul 28, 2021 9:45am
Could be forex-traders as well

https://www.telegraaf.nl/video/50761...n-internetcafe
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #136,955
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:48am Jul 28, 2021 9:48am
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} I'm playing this by hedging the short [on down impulses] and averaging [taking] the long hedge off on up retrs.. All the while keeping my short on. I still see downside potential. I think at some point it will let go and plunge deep. Maybe upon FOMC.
QUESTION:

WHY do you think EU dumps/plunges?

Technical - via charts?

Fundamental - Risk off event or possible Covid closures?

I ask to find our where your mind is regarding this pair.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #136,956
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:52am Jul 28, 2021 9:52am
Quoting eurusd-thijs
Could be forex-traders as well https://www.telegraaf.nl/video/50761...n-internetcafe
Not me! I live in Florida and we have Hurricaines but those games are just plain nuts!
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #136,957
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:53am Jul 28, 2021 9:53am
My buy limit has been triggered,
Renko 10R Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m2-international-capital-markets-buyy.png Size: 45 KB
"No pain no gain"
  • #136,958
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:53am Jul 28, 2021 9:53am
Quoting eurusd-thijs
Could be forex-traders as well https://www.telegraaf.nl/video/50761...n-internetcafe
Nou, wat is dat?

Anyway.. Just sold 1.1804...
Mental stops at least 18 pips or higher.. TP: Open..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #136,959
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:55am Jul 28, 2021 9:55am
Quoting Kyuu
My view of Euro on the 4H 1: On the very left I had a support getting violated equating to bear strength. 2: We then proceeded to have this descending triangle structure with lows below the previous support break. This triangle created its own support line. 3: After we broke the resistance of this triangle and wicked, price re-tested the bottom support where it seemingly accumulated in the triangle after seeing bull strength. 4: Last night after breaking that resistance again, we had a strong pullback to re-test price where it broke resistance and...
Here's why I am scared of shorting:

Image 1: the 4H built support here.
Image 2: the Daily is bouncing off the support that broke

The 15 min chart also built my own long pattern. I missed the opportunity to short at 1.18386 and long at 1.1784. Depending on where price goes from here will finally solidify my long term bias.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2564a1b174adfd6b9f098875b49f5ad5.png Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: b4e48c80c35f2798da4a0526ca1f86f5.png Size: 105 KB
  • #136,960
  • Jul 28, 2021 9:57am Jul 28, 2021 9:57am
Quoting yvestrcz
{quote} First bearish torpedoes released as the boat has set out and getting in deeper waters.
Now the Bull submarine pokes its periscope above the 1.18 surface... where next?

Update: Back down, they must've spotted something suspicious on the horizon.
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
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