Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

After a 5 mile jog along the beach...
A spike up hit my TP...wow, a forex newbie traders dream..!!

Somehow can't get my head away the chart.

Quick example of what i would do/think if just doing what i call "trading what i see/feel" whenever i am looking at things without having any pre-defined rules, a strategy or even goals in mind. You could also call this gamblers condition?

To me this looks like price moving in a range (multiple M15 candles) and seems to have struggle clearly going beyong the daily pivot point.

I would sell there "hoping" it then reverses a 3rd time as it did 2 times so far for today. Why this is on a M15 chart and not looking on M5, M1 or H1 = I dont know.

At least doing such entry would give me a tight stop loss about the last recent upswing (marked by 2 on the chart) of -4 Pips and a potential target of about +20 Pips, so a 1:5 r/r trade (if the reward would be reached and not exited earlier).

Looks like the BillyBar selling the low break paid of too for the +5. A +25 max. was in if you would have perfectly catched the bottom of the "move".

Have a nice day all. I'm going back in the hammock.



Edit, 12:52 | So here is the chart 3 x M15 candle's later.



The nice pre-calculated risk/reward of 1:5 was a max of 1:2 (11 Pips) so far in reality or even a -1 Pip if decided to let it run back until there while not moving the stop (which hasn't been taken out too so far). Let's see maybe its still going there or even reaches to the pre estimated TP.

So let's say you have a strategy/plan telling you to execute a max. of 20 trades a month where you expect a 1:2 r/r according to past results by your strategy where you had a win rate of 60%. As soon as you start taking profits earlier like exiting 1 trade out of the 20 for less than 1:2 like only 1:1 or even lower your win rate also has to adapt/change to it and needs to become higher for the remaining trades you do for that month for the concept of risk to reward to still work out. Or your next entry/entries will need to have a lower SL to balance risk/reward again too. For me that looks extreme difficult to maintain in the long run if having to buy/sell in such more "random" way not having some clear pre-defined entries/exits because you trade what you see/get in the moment whenever you there or not.

Edit, 14:05 | Boom, would have been stopped out... As soon as you think you have a "range-bound" type of market condition and place sells at the top you think is there and buys at the bottom, boom it breaks out to hit your stop. Then if you think you enter the breakout, boom it starts to range... Is it just me or do you also feel like that sometimes ?

and filled;-)

Ha! beat me to it!

The world of GBPUSD is a cynical and cyclical one

I've got a decent inventory now for the way down, could get expensive though if it doesn't...

i would wait for weakness, or signs that the hidden hands are supporting the way down.

but longterm, weekly, it still looks down.

Still can't enjoy holidays and clear my head

I was scrolling back for the last 100 days on the BillyBar setup again and that gave me some new ideas I can't wait to test out once I am back home. It could potentially reduce my losses with it by reducing the number of fails and/or even optimize it from a risk/reward point of view. But well, lets wait...

While I was enjoying my beer I also entered into a trade for today. First trade opened for 4 weeks or so and that for the smallest size available.

Now that's not the UK open and NY session is ending too. I don't know if that's a good time of the day to enter a trade at all if not prepared to hold for at least into the next day and risk carrying it through the rollover period and manage the spread widening.

My idea/thoughts here were quiet simple. Maybe too simple!? ... Price during UK/NY made a "significant" move to the upside. More than average, exceeding the ADR by 20% for the last 5 days. So I thought price has to pullback at least for some and determined this area as a good place to sell without further thinking about it. Sl = 10 Pips, TP = 20 Pips. A fixed RR of 1:2.

Seems there were news around this afternoon which gave price that larger push up forming that one outstanding larger M15 candle.

I see this happening over and over again. So these kind of "pullbacks" you see after a larger "trending" day where price moved significant more than average to one direction. But yes maybe it just stalls on from there now while forming a range and then keeps going up and stopping me out. We will see.

Oh and I am selling although price is clearly floating above the daily pivot now. So according to this pivot point theory the entry would disqualify I guess.

Anyone else bagged some pips on the GBP/AUD ?
A trending pair..!!

I will stick to only watch and trade GBP/USD.

Looks like a very compressed day so far. ADR of 33 Pips at this time of the day. Maybe NY will bring in some movement.

BillyBar

The high failed to reach to the +5. The following low break would have been good to reach that. Whats interesting to notice is that the 00-04 range Billy and some others here seems to like using as a directional bias would have worked out (at least for today). After price touched and even closed on my M15 chart below that 00-04 range it could have warned you not to enter any long position on the BillyBar.

Also using a buffer and placing any order just 1-2 pips away from the actual high/low trigger would have saved you from getting caught on the wrong side.

So both of these options seems to be a good way to use as a trade entry filter even if i am still not so convinced about it. Will have to look up more past days.

Claudia: 3:35 Goodwood. Alcohol Free

Might be worth a bit of fun.

My trade i placed last evening just before NY closed worked out by the way...

The idea like said was that we will see some kind of retracement/pullback from there. (Oh man i sound like Nostradamus already). Not sure about if the fixed stop loss and TP of 10/20 Pips was a good idea but NOW after the event that i can sound like a smart ass too. Yes it looks like so. At least for this one little trade.

Now how to reapeat that for me on a daily base, build a trading plan out of that and maybe make a life from it is written on another piece of paper

Have a good day all.

With a name like that it must be worth a small punt

This is my next prank.



Edit, 14:45. Worked out. +5. I am done for today.

Hope you did.

Good call !

I have my moments, lol.

Good Picking there Lem
Caught my attention because I am nearing completion of my Dry July promise. Only 3 more days before I can indulge with a couple of Bourbons
Good thread all of you.

Hiya,

Good to see you here. Bit quiet just now for various reasons, so if you fancy posting - thoughts, feelings, opinions...or even a chart or two - feel free.

yesterday the last UV was cleared after a few hours it was established.

we have no UV now on the downside.

so i guess we are rising more and more next days and clear levels above 1.4000

BillyBar High touched, lets see. Not trading it. Just watching.

00-04 range also touched/broke to the upside earlier.

Almost there! Hope you stayed in.

Overview using Thunder+Lighning on full cloud(s).

GU H1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Thisis a method I use in The Other Galaxy, so I won't go into much detail here - I just thought it gave an interesting ''contrast and compare.''