Yes, I am familiar with the fractal behavior of markets. I even believe in it. Here's where things go wrong:
Let's say you have a 100 pip move like the ones you have shown on your charts. You then draw a 23%, 38%, 50%, 62%, and a 78% line. On a 100 pip move those numbers are actual pip values as well as percent. In other words, 23 pips retracement, 38 pips....you get the idea.
Now, I assume that for you the declare a fib stopped price you can be off by a couple pips. Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I'll give you 5 pips either side. So, if price retraces 50%, or 50 pips, you can say the fib worked if price turns anywhere from 45-55 pips. This is a 10 pip band. Given that you have 5 fib numbers and each have a 10 pip band where you can declare magical success, we find that in a 100 pip retracement you get to say that fibs worked 50 out of those 100 pips. Guess what? That is a 50/50 chance. No better than a coin flip! How anyone can say that contains any statistical accuracy is beyond me.
For all the thing u said abv...i have only one thing to say tat Fib study is a gr8 tool which i use to get confirmation of my entry/Exit combined with other Tools/Indicators i use.
I won't say that i solely trade on Fib Studies as i don't. I combine Fibs with other indicators like Moving Avg., PPoints, Stochs, Macd and then all the things are allined in a particualar direction i go for a trade.(But thats just me, Everyone has there own trading style.)
I normally wouldn't have corrected you or stated my opinion but you sort of came off as an authority on fibs and I didn't think it was right to not have an opposing view.
Hmm here whr u got me wrong mate... i never said i m the ultimate Fib master or an athurity on Fibs... if u read my first post, which i started for newbies who are stuggling to understand how fib studies work, i said all the Traders who have good Knowhow on this topic should post their methods/tips/tricks. Apart from that i will also put some images with some desription so newbies can get an idea.
By the way, 50% is not a fib number, it's 48.6.
Yea i know 50% is not a fib....neither 0% nor 100% but i keep them with the Fib lines to get and idea wats happening...
BTW i wud like, to see the way u trade Fib, if u do. Wud be appriciated to know ur Tips and tricks aswell.
Another thing i said in my 1st post i will say again....to all the traders who think they know something related to Fibs put ur views and share ur ideas with others.
Cheers....
