Bulls: two strong moves...bears: counter three stronger moves.
What a week in the world of eurusd.
What a week in the world of eurusd.
- #136,742
- Jul 23, 2021 7:24am Jul 23, 2021 7:24am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,131 Posts | Online Now
H1 Status Update
All I did so far is rinse and repeat... If bears could move their butts a little further, we could have had more fun but yeah it is what it is on a lazy Friday NY session.. Still thank God for what was provided so far for this day..
*Based on the chart below, it shouldn't be hard to guess where I keep taking profit..
All I did so far is rinse and repeat... If bears could move their butts a little further, we could have had more fun but yeah it is what it is on a lazy Friday NY session.. Still thank God for what was provided so far for this day..
*Based on the chart below, it shouldn't be hard to guess where I keep taking profit..
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #136,743
- Jul 23, 2021 7:43am Jul 23, 2021 7:43am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
Happy Friday all ! Coming especially to wish all a great weekend
.
Lets remind ourselves that next week we have important often price impacting news every single day, if I am not mistaken.
For now, momentum from 2H to 1D is still strong, intact and clean, 1D is still at its strongest.
Also have a first volatility in momentum setup on the 4H, which is new and encouraging IF reaches 1753 in the next 2H though, where I would add a little more to my 1814 to 1755 shorts.
Been waiting patiently for shorter-term to join the party. Now the 1H is near again to confirming some more bear momentum support and could very well partner up with my 2H, 4H, 1D supported entries
Just need a close of this hour below 1764 usually, but this time, I need a bit more to add shorts(the extra precaution would cancel a potential countertrend setup in the works), see image...
Take care all !
.Lets remind ourselves that next week we have important often price impacting news every single day, if I am not mistaken.
For now, momentum from 2H to 1D is still strong, intact and clean, 1D is still at its strongest.
Also have a first volatility in momentum setup on the 4H, which is new and encouraging IF reaches 1753 in the next 2H though, where I would add a little more to my 1814 to 1755 shorts.
Been waiting patiently for shorter-term to join the party. Now the 1H is near again to confirming some more bear momentum support and could very well partner up with my 2H, 4H, 1D supported entries
Just need a close of this hour below 1764 usually, but this time, I need a bit more to add shorts(the extra precaution would cancel a potential countertrend setup in the works), see image... Take care all !
{quote} Miracles do happen, and when they do, it is breathtaking ! 2H pullback entry supported by longer-term 4H-1D momentum above average strength. All it needs now is a bit of volatility to break it free ! Condition 1 met straight away. Saved + setup confirmed with close below 1797 ! Now can call it a day for my long-term positions and even more important, can start keeping even my intraday entries at BE instead of their respective take-profit, and till 4h momentum is challenged again (scaling down 1), 6h (2), 8h(3), 12h(4), and finally till the...
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
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- #136,745
- Jul 23, 2021 7:50am Jul 23, 2021 7:50am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,131 Posts | Online Now
Happy Friday all ! Coming especially to wish all a great weekend
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #136,746
- Jul 23, 2021 7:52am Jul 23, 2021 7:52am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,131 Posts | Online Now
I hope everyone here is doing well. Question.. Is there any consensus here as to what might be a leading correlating chart that may give an EUR/USD trader a few ticks advantage on a EUR/USD price move? I know the USD/CHF is highly correlated - but I think the EUR/USD leads in this scenario. Maybe the GBP/JPY (risk on/off) IF the EUR/GBP chart is flat?
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #136,747
- Jul 23, 2021 8:44am Jul 23, 2021 8:44am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
{quote} That "strong momentum" idea is something I personally doubt.. Why? Because on H4 there is support layered down every 10 pips: I have 1.1750... then 1.1740.. then 1.1730.. then 1.1717 as support... These bears don't look like ready to deal with all these tiny obstacles.. With every barrier jump they fall and pass out
Of course you are right, if one uses the multiple levels of supports in their calculations of the strength of the current prices momentum
...But I dont. I do of course take those levels into consideration in the way I utilize momentum in trading, of course.
I know, I have very unique way of viewing and calculating momentum, and also of utilizing it in trading. I am here in the moment. If I had more "determined" time to dedicate to sharing, I would gladly get into all the details and I am sure we would be on the same page.
Cheers mate !
P.S I hope the less experienced wont get the wrong idea. Take the time to go through history and see all the moments several stacked supports have been cut through like a knife through butter... Just dont expect a high win rate with those trades. But when they do work out, gains are much greater than the risk taken also...
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #136,749
- Jul 23, 2021 8:51am Jul 23, 2021 8:51am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,131 Posts | Online Now
{quote} Of course you are right, if one uses the multiple levels of supports in their calculations of the strength of the current prices momentum
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #136,750
- Jul 23, 2021 9:05am Jul 23, 2021 9:05am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,131 Posts | Online Now
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #136,751
- Edited 10:08am Jul 23, 2021 9:53am | Edited 10:08am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
{quote} That "strong momentum" idea is something I personally doubt.. Why? Because on H4 there is support layered down every 10 pips: I have 1.1750... then 1.1740.. then 1.1730.. then 1.1717 as support... These bears don't look like ready to deal with all these tiny obstacles.. With every barrier jump they fall and pass out
That gif actually looks like me a little bit ahh those bears, they rarely do look ready..., from my bull's point of view
... Those tip-toing bears are perhaps just playing shy? Maybe just savoring their honey, slowly and childlike, not missing a drop, and soon will get back at hunting and ravaging, like the unstoppable beast ?Bears trying to figure out how to crack the concrete support, but in vain. Futile efforts. Ranging heaven as MTako would call it.
And next week I wouldnt be surprised if we get a Ranging Heaven 2.0, meaning bigger range and mess both ways thanks to the news + IF next direction still undecisive. I've have been through longer waits... Have planned for the worst case scenarios first ! I am trading in the scope of a continuance of this sustained 7 week long drop of course, but I am expecting the unexpected and would not mind a return to more longs. Just have to wait till bulls take back control, and enoough of it to threaten bears 2 months dominant moves.
rambling now again, sorry folks ! when enough of the most patient bears become impatient, often times many bulls take their place, jump in the bears bath and SPLASH...Cabernet kicking in... waiting for my ride in a couple of hours to the countryside... Ducks are waiting for their best friend to feed them corn!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #136,753
- Jul 23, 2021 11:13am Jul 23, 2021 11:13am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
Happy Friday all ! Coming especially to wish all a great weekend
Looks like I still have a little time to wait...
My 1H momentum setup failed, good. Time was finally not ripe, again. Bears continue looking for that last drop of honey
.4H volatility in momentum setup lost a leg, but still is a go as long as 53 is reached before 81 + before volatility starts to decrease for over 4H; this here candle of course, seeing the weekend looming. If 53 not reached today, that one would have failed also, as our bear finds another lost drop of honey
As strangely as that may seem, it does not take an ounce of potential off my shorts, which is rare, after all this time and light footing...
My levels update... 2H close above from now 1779 and 2Hs momentum trade will start to be challenged, and will have scale down. Beyond 1802, the 4Hs will be challenged...
I doubt anyone will enjoy more of my monologues (beware some ramblings, its Friday, common!) at this time on a great Friday... But I am here.. and I like sharing in this place and you guys and gals ! So here is a bit more about something else that my friend Ata has helped me realize, the Why some here dont get many of my posts(thanks Ata), so I will share a bit more, at least I'll try, happily, and with a piece of music I am listening to :
As we all know, sometimes big volatility pushes through multiple supports, sometimes it is slow but steady moves that do the work, sometimes a big mess of both. The "slow but steady" situation is from what my momentum strategies have been developed, and optimized around. Note : one of the main characteristics of my momentum strats being that, in a trend, opposing moves are no threat to the tightest SLs. Supports and resistances being broken through brings in many trading opportunities... Stops are tight, TP are much larger. Win rate is much lower than what we see around this forum, but overall, return/drawdown comes out most often just as good and sometimes much better. They are no better than high winning rates strats. Both often complement each other well enough to considerably raise the overall return/drawdown ratio on the long-term, which is for me more important than any other means of measure (misleading sharpe, profit ratio, etc.) of a portfolio.
When I say strong momentum, it takes into account many factors, one mentioned above, but also the duration, and under which conditions the strictly one direction move was sustained and how. As history has shown repeatedly, we could even continue for a few more days with these bears just keeping their ground and advancing as little and as slow as possible to finally reach beyond many supports most were suspecting to, again, cause turbulence, Or continue this shy advance before volatility finally comes back just enough to push it through the supports like an anchor drops in the troubled waters.
Or, of course, what most are expecting and most probable outcome : just a return to the average fights between supports and resistances.
Again, this is not a quick and high win rate approach, but a slow and low win rate win much higher rewards... Also, again, this approach is dependent on a significant change in dynamics that is not fully confirmed.
Thank you Rimsky-Korsakov, cheers and thank you all for your shares, you all take good care of yourselves
Inserted Video
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #136,756
- Jul 23, 2021 2:43pm Jul 23, 2021 2:43pm
- Joined Sep 2018 | Status: Trader Man | 2,123 Posts
-Entry will be valid for secure purchase if: the yellow line crosses the white dotted line.
This below is graph renko 5R
Simplicity in my graphics is why I use Renko.
Good weekend to everyone!
This below is graph renko 5R
Simplicity in my graphics is why I use Renko.
Good weekend to everyone!
"No pain no gain"
