Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2952 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #59,021
  • Edited 10:09am Jul 21, 2021 9:55am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Well I can't speak for Billy but from reading his posts he has more stats than Angela Merkel and studies the distribution to know the probabilities of his fixes. If that fails he scalps with a sledgehammer. I don't think that can be taught to be honest with you... If I was collating stats just on this I would be looking at the day of week and month, is the win rate higher on certain days? is it BOE interest decision day (what happens each and every month with the BB?). Then when it fails what happens to the NTBB? also what happens to the...

That's what it comes down to and then having the courage to click the mouse, as price crosses a line, into or out of trades
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,022
  • Jul 21, 2021 10:11am Jul 21, 2021 10:11am
please, always keep in mind trading is a simple thing.

keep it simple and don't make it an academic treatise!!!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #59,023
  • Jul 21, 2021 10:43am Jul 21, 2021 10:43am
Quoting birdland
please, always keep in mind trading is a simple thing. keep it simple and don't make it an academic treatise!!!
Attached Image

Sooo true!
  • #59,024
  • Jul 21, 2021 2:41pm Jul 21, 2021 2:41pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} {image} Sooo true!
Billy coming home it seems
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,025
  • Jul 21, 2021 4:39pm Jul 21, 2021 4:39pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Talking to yourself ??? Never mind footie starts again soon. Going to try and put a bet on NUFC not to win the league - should be safe enough !
Haha,,. Yes it's late here.
Betfair has them at 1000/1 to win,. Man city hot fav.
Last year I bet a few teams to win the Prem...cashed out after price changed in my favour,...
A level stake win on West Ham every game netted 11 points profit,
38 points staked, 49 return...kept me entertained for a bit..Lol
Onwards and upwards...
  • #59,026
  • Jul 22, 2021 12:52am Jul 22, 2021 12:52am
Trying to conveniently outsmart a living organism with an EA or a vaccination makes me smile.

rarely is convenience rewarded here.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #59,027
  • Jul 22, 2021 1:45am Jul 22, 2021 1:45am
we have an unvisited level at 1.3859, but i doubt that we will see this soon.

the reason is a strong 50% resistance plus resistance zone (you call it z-line i think?)
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #59,028
  • Edited 2:44am Jul 22, 2021 2:31am | Edited 2:44am
BillyBar. High broke. Entered with a Buffer of 2 Pips but a SL of 10, TP of 10 and reduced position size. Otherwise it looks good to me, even the "bias" of the 00-04 range confirms as it also broke to the upside earlier.

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  • #59,029
  • Jul 22, 2021 2:46am Jul 22, 2021 2:46am
Looks like getting stopped out on this one.

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  • #59,030
  • Jul 22, 2021 2:52am Jul 22, 2021 2:52am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Haha,,. Yes it's late here. Betfair has them at 1000/1 to win,. Man city hot fav. Last year I bet a few teams to win the Prem...cashed out after price changed in my favour,... A level stake win on West Ham every game netted 11 points profit, 38 points staked, 49 return...kept me entertained for a bit..Lol
It's good fun I do pretty much the same. Here's what Billy Hill currently show.

Arsenal looks interesting. Will go with City and two or three others. You must surely have a small punt on West Ham at that price.
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  • #59,031
  • Jul 22, 2021 2:56am Jul 22, 2021 2:56am
Stopped out -10 (-84,79 EUR)

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I am glad this happed so i can ask some more annoying questions hah

Money/Risk Management.

Now as this was my first trade of the FTMO 10k challenge where you have a max. daily drawdown limit of 5% daily and 10% total. This represents a near 1% loss. I gave it some room to account for the commission.

Is this too much of a risk already to hit the 5-10 Pips daily target which would be a 0.5 to 1:1 r/r trade.

It gives me room for a max of 4 more entries like that for today to still hit that goal or have to stop trading. Then my giving me a further 5 entries starting from tomorrow to do better or hit the next drawdown limitation of a 10% max.

Not sure if trading at $10/Point might be a bit to high but in case of the BillyBar Strategy with a 5-10 Pips target this would be min needed to reach the profit goal in the time period of 20 days.

Also not sure what to do now. I could stop trading for today and be down -10 Pips and be safe from "over trading" or keep going and let the pending sell stop at the low of the BillyBar and hope this next trade will make a 10 Pips so i will be back to break even for today.
  • #59,032
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:02am Jul 22, 2021 3:02am
Quoting lddd
Stopped out -10 (-84,79 EUR) {image} I am glad this happed so i can ask some more annoying questions hah Money/Risk Management. Now as this was my first trade of the FTMO 10k challenge where you have a max. daily drawdown limit of 5% daily and 10% total. This represents a near 1% loss. I gave it some room to account for the commission. Is this too much of a risk already to hit the 5-10 Pips daily target which would be a 0.5 to 1:1 r/r trade. It gives me room for a max of 4 more entries like that for today to still hit that goal or have...
learn to play with 0.01
then rise to 0.02
then 0.03

trading 1 lot without knowing what u are doing is stupid.

so maybe you get back some respect from the community here.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #59,033
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:08am Jul 22, 2021 3:08am
Quoting lddd
Stopped out -10 (-84,79 EUR) {image} I am glad this happed so i can ask some more annoying questions hah Money/Risk Management. Now as this was my first trade of the FTMO 10k challenge where you have a max. daily drawdown limit of 5% daily and 10% total. This represents a near 1% loss. I gave it some room to account for the commission. Is this too much of a risk already to hit the 5-10 Pips daily target which would be a 0.5 to 1:1 r/r trade. It gives me room for a max of 4 more entries like that for today to still hit that goal or have...
Agree with birdland's post. My view is you just lack confidence right now
(no offence intended believe me) but that will come with time.

Mr T was a bit the same all that time back but he's flying now.

Good luck on your journey.
  • #59,034
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:18am Jul 22, 2021 3:18am
@Claudia

FTSE NTBB break. The 20 Pips TP would have worked out today it looks. The range however below a 10 Pips.

I scrolled back some weeks until March or so last night on FTSE and it looked to me often where it crossed both sides of the range the range was less than a 10 Pips. Then it was also much more prone to whipsaw and crossing both ends multiple times before moving anywhere. So might be an idea to avoid trading where the range is less than a 10 Pips.

A buffer of 3 Pips would be also recommended to use but still wouldn't protect from some ugly examples.

However to me i am not sure how i would be able to trade both these setups/strategies. As they happen nearly the same time. Actually would be happy with 1 thing working already no matter what that is. But maybe it really needs to trade more than just 1 setup/strategy to get me where i want to be, not sure yet.

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  • #59,035
  • Jul 22, 2021 3:53am Jul 22, 2021 3:53am
Quoting lddd
@Claudia FTSE NTBB break. The 20 Pips TP would have worked out today it looks. The range however below a 10 Pips. I scrolled back some weeks until March or so last night on FTSE and it looked to me often where it crossed both sides of the range the range was less than a 10 Pips. Then it was also much more prone to whipsaw and crossing both ends multiple times before moving anywhere. So might be an idea to avoid trading where the range is less than a 10 Pips. A buffer of 3 Pips would be also recommended to use but still wouldn't protect from some...
One thing done consistently is key.
Backtesting in batches of 10 and then comparing those batches will give you answers. Comparing a few days in a row mean nothing in my opinion.
  • #59,036
  • Jul 22, 2021 4:18am Jul 22, 2021 4:18am
Quoting birdland
{quote} learn to play with 0.01 then rise to 0.02 then 0.03 trading 1 lot without knowing what u are doing is stupid. so maybe you get back some respect from the community here.
Hey bird.

I understand what you are saying and it might be true for many traders. Respect that. But trust me, i do not lack the confidence because i feel trading a to big size. I lack confidence because of simply not exactly knowing what to do in case of how to execute a strategy / trading plan, so it also makes sense.

What i experienced is the past is actually quiet the opposite to what you say. Whenever i trade a smaller size of a position these trades are more prone to greed and losing concentration / focus, because then a 5 Pips just doesn't have any meaning and letting it run a 30 Pips more against me than the planned ahead SL, who cares... Same thing with demo trading. I think this doesn't works good with my psychology. I think it needs to hurt at least a little.

To me the problems seems to have more to do with not really knowing what to do in case of a strategy, entry/exit and how to repeat that so it gets profitable consistently and just not occasionally. I am trading around break even level for a long time already.

Being just profitable or making money consistently so you can make a life and pay the bills from this (main source of income) that are still two different universes it seems. It is not really hard to make a winning trade, all it needs is 1 trade and win that trade, then stop trading for the rest of your life. You are a winning trader.

I do not fear of getting wiped out or losing my own money. In case of that FTMO or Prop Trading thing, it wouldn't even be my own money. What i do really fear is WASTING even more TIME with doing something simply not working for the next decade where i otherwise could spend that time with family and friends.

But like said finding a working "trading plan" (business plan) for myself including all these things of the right money/risk management that is also in harmony with the strategy and my psychology and personal style of how i would like / could imagine to keep doing this is really the hard part.

If you think it could have to do with trading size. Well, i have no problem switching to trading the BillyBar for example the way i do at 0.10 or 0.01 for the next 3 months and present my results on a daily base here on in my trading journal but like i do this so far it really doesn't seem to be ending up profitable without knowing how to "fix" these far larger losing examples you will also experience then unless you don't leave them out and luckily don't trade/enter these days.

I don't really think it will make a difference, the results would pretty much be negative i think even doing this at a smaller size.
  • #59,037
  • Jul 22, 2021 4:50am Jul 22, 2021 4:50am
some good stuff here.

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  • #59,038
  • Edited 6:06am Jul 22, 2021 5:22am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting lddd
@Claudia FTSE NTBB break. The 20 Pips TP would have worked out today it looks. The range however below a 10 Pips. I scrolled back some weeks until March or so last night on FTSE and it looked to me often where it crossed both sides of the range the range was less than a 10 Pips. Then it was also much more prone to whipsaw and crossing both ends multiple times before moving anywhere. So might be an idea to avoid trading where the range is less than a 10 Pips. A buffer of 3 Pips would be also recommended to use but still wouldn't protect from some...
Read 'Secrets of a Pivot Boss'

It's a great book and you'll learn a lot. It's not a five minute read but worth the time.

There are free copies out there. Google 'Secrets-of-a-Pivot-Boss-by-Frank-Ochoa.pdf'

Edit: he pays contribute to his wife Claudia - it's not me !

Read up on camarilla my ex boss swears by it.
  • #59,039
  • Jul 22, 2021 5:43am Jul 22, 2021 5:43am
Quoting birdland
we have an unvisited level at 1.3859, but i doubt that we will see this soon. the reason is a strong 50% resistance plus resistance zone (you call it z-line i think?) {image}
Classic Z-Line.
  • #59,040
  • Jul 22, 2021 6:00am Jul 22, 2021 6:00am
Quoting lddd
{quote} ...all it needs is 1 trade and win that trade, then stop trading for the rest of your life...
THEN please do us a favour and buy lottery tickets, and stop bugging us;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
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