Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2951 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading Rules for die-hards... 47 replies

Trading Systems work for 6-12 mnths then die? 14 replies

5 Rules to Trade or Die By 5 replies

Trading Live Against The Beast--Gbd/Jpy--(Do Or Die)-- 3 replies

die young 8 replies

Attachments: Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout
Exit Attachments

Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #59,001
  • Jul 20, 2021 12:52pm Jul 20, 2021 12:52pm
Just realised that we have cracked the 59,000 posts mark!
  • #59,002
  • Jul 20, 2021 2:59pm Jul 20, 2021 2:59pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} 60% dark Peruvian chocolate hits the sweet spot for my gut health! Heartily recommended!
You're a wimp. I eat Lindt ultimate dark 95%.

BTW thanks for posting the M1 charts. Did you drop the bars and momentum barz indicator?
  • #59,003
  • Edited Jul 21, 2021 3:33am Jul 20, 2021 4:11pm | Edited Jul 21, 2021 3:33am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} You're a wimp. I eat Lindt ultimate dark 95%. BTW thanks for posting the M1 charts. Did you drop the bars and momentum barz indicator?
Hahaha...I do occasionally venture that deep into the darkness but as I said, 60% is a nice sweet spot!

I haven't dropped the momo bars, no, just happens that this chart didn't feature them.
  • #59,004
  • Jul 20, 2021 5:14pm Jul 20, 2021 5:14pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Haven't been watching horses - managed 9 days in hospital with a gastro issue. Not good but food there isn't actually bad. Had an endoscopy which is not nice. Will have a look at horses. Cleared 1k yesterday on GU - must be hospital food lol !
Hope you're feeling well...some Aussie flowers for you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20210721-074131-955~2.png Size: 899 KB
Onwards and upwards...
  • #59,005
  • Jul 20, 2021 7:02pm Jul 20, 2021 7:02pm
Quoting herewego
{quote} I hope you will take my words with the good intent with which they are truly intended. I found myself in a similar situation a few years ago, in which I was getting totally lost in a sea of thoughts and ideas which were just confusing myself even more. On the advice of someone that I have utmost respect for I took a 2 month complete break not just from trading but also even thinking about it. On the return to trading I had reset my mind and way of looking at the markets. This worked for myself and I respectfully suggest you consider doing...
Thanks for your kind words.

Yes, i think you are right. I took several breaks in the past from trading. I've been involved in it since around 2008-2009 but not as active all the time. Since last May now i really started to look at the same chart every day after getting the advice to start focusing on one thing.

Still i have no real idea of what to do with the knowledge gained. I am in my mid 30s now and it would be cool to find some success with it before my hair turns grey.
  • #59,006
  • Jul 21, 2021 3:25am Jul 21, 2021 3:25am
Quoting lemercenaire
Just realised that we have cracked the 59,000 posts mark!
And William missing again. Might be in endo !
  • #59,007
  • Edited 3:53am Jul 21, 2021 3:26am | Edited 3:53am
And again such messy BillyBar action.

Low broke and failed. High touched, lets see...

Now suppose i would had have a "bias" determined by the earlier range of the 00-04 broke low what did that help? Also the overall "trend" if looking at things from a higher time framed chart or zoom out, i would say is down. So who said "follow the trend" is any easier...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uTEDVD2.jpeg Size: 58 KB


Edit,

On the H1 chart this is now a break of the 09:00 H1 high. I've also looked at them (the 09:00 H1 breaks) some time ago but basically same problematic. Just too many times you get these "fake breaks" even if that is just by a few Pips. Could use a buffer but even then still too many times it would be touched or you have to use such a high buffer it wouldn´t even make sense to enter on the break again. Further i noticed that the movements then just simply are't that big enough so they would compensate and take care of them selfs after applying what ever reasoanble fixed sl/tp. Even not in the long run, i looked up months of past data. So using just a 5 Pips TP isn´t too bad of an approach. At least you should be then win 3 out of 5 days more often than not (not even that lately) but like many people said including myself without beeing able to fix them and lets say recovering back of a temporary 30 Pips drawdown no matter if that is floating (hedged) or fixed (sl), it's hard then to make any profits at all and even far far harder to end up with a +5 every day.

Not to forget IF only going with the trend, even that H1 break i could not enter because that would be against the overall trend (taking the buy). So no money to me made for me again, no food on the table Damn that trend...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: R3MaRph.jpeg Size: 69 KB

Anyways have a good day all. I will be reviewing charts for the rest of the day. Maybe i will find something hah.
  • #59,008
  • Jul 21, 2021 4:10am Jul 21, 2021 4:10am
BillyBar the low failed and the high broke. Now without using martin gale, so i would have trippled or so the stake size to make for the 5 TP missed by locking in a -26 Pips (including spread/com) i would now "hope" to make back these 26 Pips by directly entering on the opposite high break happened instead of increasding stake size and only look for +5.

At the moment that second break gave approx. +16 Pips IF and only IF selling/exiting exactly there catching the peak/top. Still a 10 Pips difference, or staying in until the full +26 are made, or staying in until -26 for another time

I already thought it would fail to make even the +5 on the high break but it did that at least. There were quiet a lot of double fails in the recent 2 months. A few times it even crossed 3,4,5 times or more before going anywhere for a few pips, so using martin gale there and you are wiped out if the starting stake size is anything more than a few micro lots.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: n9jKXtx.jpeg Size: 62 KB
  • #59,009
  • Jul 21, 2021 4:26am Jul 21, 2021 4:26am
Quoting lddd
BillyBar the low failed and the high broke. Now without using martin gale, so i would have trippled or so the stake size to make for the 5 TP missed by locking in a -26 Pips (including spread/com) i would now "hope" to make back these 26 Pips by directly entering on the opposite high break happened instead of increasding stake size and only look for +5. At the moment that second break gave approx. +16 Pips IF and only IF selling/exiting exactly there catching the peak/top. Still a 10 Pips difference, or staying in until the full +26 are made, or...
In my opinion Martingale will make you poor very quickly. Why not try adding the original lot size to a losing trade if you must, and if that trade fails add the same lot size again. Personally I prefer to accept a loss as part of my cost of doing business and move on.
All you are looking for is an edge. An edge can be a few%. If you are trying to have a success rate of anything over 80% you will sadly probably crash and burn.
Others opinion will probably differ so this is just my view.
  • #59,010
  • Jul 21, 2021 4:26am Jul 21, 2021 4:26am
Quoting lddd
BillyBar the low failed and the high broke. Now without using martin gale, so i would have trippled or so the stake size to make for the 5 TP missed by locking in a -26 Pips (including spread/com) i would now "hope" to make back these 26 Pips by directly entering on the opposite high break happened instead of increasding stake size and only look for +5. At the moment that second break gave approx. +16 Pips IF and only IF selling/exiting exactly there catching the peak/top. Still a 10 Pips difference, or staying in until the full +26 are made, or...
Inserted Video


Also you should read Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb
  • #59,011
  • Jul 21, 2021 5:05am Jul 21, 2021 5:05am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} https://youtu.be/amLYLq73RvE Also you should read Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb
Very good recommendation indeed, just read it again
  • #59,012
  • Jul 21, 2021 5:11am Jul 21, 2021 5:11am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Very good recommendation indeed, just read it again
Thanks, I think I'm about due for a 2nd read ..
  • #59,013
  • Jul 21, 2021 6:01am Jul 21, 2021 6:01am
Could this be the definition of trading made complicated?

Soooo many screens. If he doesn’t contribute to global warming, Idk. Greta T. will be not amused to see that

I am just operating from a single 15 inch MacBook Pro lol. Maybe that’s the issue hah.

Inserted Video
  • #59,014
  • Jul 21, 2021 7:23am Jul 21, 2021 7:23am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} https://youtu.be/amLYLq73RvE Also you should read Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb
Fagin. I took the frequency distributional statistics and collected data on the BillyBar going back until the beginning of 2017. So more than 3 years so far. Hope that is valid to be considered as a larger sample size of past data to make a backtest on. They are saying that 5 Pips on the BillyBar break is a good target to maintain a average win rate above 60% at least. Still it doesn´t solve the problem for me of how to compensate for a potential much higher loss like i would have for some days if using the opposite end of the range as a max. willing allowed risk per entry /sl or lock/hedge.

So that is what Billy told me he was doing for a living and what has been posted here a lot of times. Taking the break for a fixed +5 TP target or then hedging it or taking the loss. However he then never showed one pictured example (after a fail) how he would then got out of such locked trade. Yes i know, the copyright reason. Now lets say i would limit the min. or max. size of the BillyBar range established and only enter a trade for days where the range is min. 10 and max. 25 Pips. First problem) I wouldn't be able then to make the 5 Pips daily goal because i had to pass trading for some days as the range is not always in between 10 or 25 every day. So no setup, no trade for the day, no money for the day. Second problem) Yes i would then limit my willing allowed risk to a max of 25 Pips and maybe count some less losers too. But due to the less amounts of trades taken per week/month it then would make compensating for these fails even harder to end up at +5 Pips per day. Even much harder to end up profitable at all with at least some pips after counting in such losses and broker fees.

I also looked up for various different TP/SL examples on the first break and even took statistics for the second and third break happening but the informations i gathered here still could not help me with solving this puzzle. I now know there is a higher chance on the second break to make X Pips if the first one failed and even a much higher chance on the third break and so on. Still there are days you get easily 8-9 failed tries of breakouts where price not even moved out of the BillyBar range for the 5 Pips. So using martin gale technique here and increase size would be only great if you know how to filter out these "whipsaw days" in advance (before the day started and you entered). That would be great and a gurantee to make these 5 Pips then after X tries but i don´t have that crystal ball telling me if the day will be far more than 3 tries to break out of that range so i could simply massively increased size and called it a day after booked the +5 net pips.

I think what some might miss/overlook here is that i DO NOT trade or want trade more than 1 chart every day (and that should be the same). No more than 1 strategy/setup if that is possible. I say strategy or method because Post 1 is saying the BillyBar is one method.

If i look around here i see people trading far more than 1 setup/strategy or instrument but on the other hand you then have people like Billy or even ouf of this place telling you its easily possible to make a life from trading focusing on 1 strategy market and do nothing else. So quiet confusing for me as noob to figure out who is right now.

I would be even wiling to pay for a better education but it doesn´t seem to exit. There are some live traders like Tom H. obviously able to make/made a life from trading but so far i could also not benefit from this information. Great psychology things spoken about but still in the end simply doesn´t help if you have no edge in your entries/exits?

Thanks for the video, i heard about "Fooled by Randomnes" a few times now already. I will look at it, thanks.
  • #59,015
  • Jul 21, 2021 7:38am Jul 21, 2021 7:38am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} And William missing again. Might be in endo !
Or thought he was !
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,016
  • Jul 21, 2021 7:49am Jul 21, 2021 7:49am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Fagin. I took the frequency distributional statistics and collected data on the BillyBar going back until the beginning of 2017. So more than 3 years so far. Hope that is valid to be considered as a larger sample size of past data to make a backtest on. They are saying that 5 Pips on the BillyBar break is a good target to maintain a average win rate above 60% at least. Still it doesn´t solve the problem for me of how to compensate for a potential much higher loss like i would have for some days if using the opposite end of the range as a...
You can make a living trading but helps to have a reasonable size account. Discipline and patience are important as have been mentioned numerous times.

I've been trading more years than I like to think. Previously for a bank but now just little me. Mainly stick to GU based around pivots and sell 90% of the time. Don't ask why as I don't know. Sometimes trade the ntbb which to me works better than the Billy Bar - he might argue.

Just keep it simple - have targets and keep detailed records. Good luck.
  • #59,017
  • Jul 21, 2021 7:56am Jul 21, 2021 7:56am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} I did post a chart on your thread a few weeks ago...have another look & try to invent a system with fresh eyes..GL
Methinks you need to stop doing what you're doing....if you want to stop getting what you're getting....!!!
I have posted some helpful advice.....
Onwards and upwards...
  • #59,018
  • Jul 21, 2021 7:57am Jul 21, 2021 7:57am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Or thought he was ! {image}
They do give a picture which is enough to make you ill in itself.

Hey they give you horlicks at night - thought that was long gone. Asked for a drop of brandy to be added but got a bad bad look lol ! Bought both yesterday and I was right it is an amazing mixture. Try it on Mrs T.
  • #59,019
  • Jul 21, 2021 8:01am Jul 21, 2021 8:01am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Methinks you need to stop doing what you're doing....if you want to stop getting what you're getting....!!! I have posted some helpful advice.....
Talking to yourself ??? Never mind footie starts again soon. Going to try and put a bet on NUFC not to win the league - should be safe enough !
  • #59,020
  • Jul 21, 2021 8:45am Jul 21, 2021 8:45am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Fagin. I took the frequency distributional statistics and collected data on the BillyBar going back until the beginning of 2017. So more than 3 years so far. Hope that is valid to be considered as a larger sample size of past data to make a backtest on. They are saying that 5 Pips on the BillyBar break is a good target to maintain a average win rate above 60% at least. Still it doesn´t solve the problem for me of how to compensate for a potential much higher loss like i would have for some days if using the opposite end of the range as a...
Well I can't speak for Billy but from reading his posts he has more stats than Angela Merkel and studies the distribution to know the probabilities of his fixes. If that fails he scalps with a sledgehammer. I don't think that can be taught to be honest with you... If I was collating stats just on this I would be looking at the day of week and month, is the win rate higher on certain days? is it BOE interest decision day (what happens each and every month with the BB?). Then when it fails what happens to the NTBB? also what happens to the NTBB when it doesn't break the range of the Billy Bar? It goes on and on until you find that tiny edge... or go insane.

Or is it just random after all? If it is... just trade the break of a line, if you can't do that then average your position and bankroll into a max number of positions, cash out when price goes green into your average position. If you go bust redo the maths and develop patience.
4 traders viewing now