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  • #781
  • Jul 14, 2021 8:24pm Jul 14, 2021 8:24pm
Quoting nikosk0
{quote} btw, did u always trade like this or started now from this thread? hs it helped you become profitable in this sort term that the thread has been alive? just asking out of curiosity to see if at least one person has become profitable, tat is the goal anyway i will add a poll to the start to see how helpfull it has been to the readers
Hi NikoskO
I did bring some trading experience and some profit ability but mostly using indicator based systems and using multiple time frames and went thru what I would call the ups and downs of trading. in 2017 I stopped trading as Life just took over. So recently I repaired my trading computer and now have more time so I decided to trade again and my thought process was to trade without indicators although you do see the one indicator window that I use but I try to remember to take it down before I snap the pic but sometimes I forget. It probably gives me a warning of when not to trade more than a trade signal, But anyway I was actually looking for an EA for figuring out lot size and then I noticed your thread "Market structure only-Keep your charts clean" so I clicked on it and read the entire thread to try and understand the rules and even found the EA I was looking for. As I was reading I was examining the charts and noticed the great risk reward ratio in making these trades and also How often it happened and I have started to feel that you have kinda of cracked a code in the market and I believe it happens for a reason and it just makes sense. I have applied some of my multi time frame experience knowing that the more a trade level shows up on multi time frames the better the chance it will have but other than that this is the best I have ever traded and it is due to your teaching and I can't tell you enough how thankful I am for you to share it with us. I actually feel that the grace of GOD brought me here as it was the first thread I clicked on. I am on the hottest streak I have ever been on and still have not lost a trade since I started trading this way. I know I can't keep that up and have to stay disciplined but the risk reward ratio and valid entries this system provides is What makes this system profitable. I feel we could lose more than 50% of these trades and still be profitable if we follow the system correctly., and part of the real genius of the system is that we are trading in the existing trading range and do not require a break out to make profits.

Thank you for taking the time to teach us!
  • #782
  • Jul 15, 2021 8:49am Jul 15, 2021 8:49am
UJ 5 min. Exploring other majors as well.
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  • #783
  • Jul 15, 2021 10:20am Jul 15, 2021 10:20am
Quoting snail69
UJ 5 min. Exploring other majors as well. {image}
This is a very nice example.

In this context, more indicators just means more confusion for me.

Pivots and nine period RSI. The latter helps give confidence with tops and bottoms.
  • #784
  • Jul 15, 2021 10:20am Jul 15, 2021 10:20am
Quoting henn9
{quote} Hi NikoskO I did bring some trading experience and some profit ability but mostly using indicator based systems and using multiple time frames and went thru what I would call the ups and downs of trading. in 2017 I stopped trading as Life just took over. So recently I repaired my trading computer and now have more time so I decided to trade again and my thought process was to trade without indicators although you do see the one indicator window that I use but I try to remember to take it down before I snap the pic but sometimes I forget....
This thread is very good. I am redirecting here people asking me for advice. As usual, when you give or recommend something for free, most won't appreciate it, lol.

I am happy to see you are among the exceptions.
  • #785
  • Edited 2:50pm Jul 15, 2021 2:36pm | Edited 2:50pm
edit, the quote cause the trade was different from snail's, my bad.

Quoting scherzi
{quote} This thread is very good. I am redirecting here people asking me for advice. As usual, when you give or recommend something for free, most won't appreciate it, lol. I am happy to see you are among the exceptions.
same reason i stoped posting on gu an eu threads

i hardly ever went there to read opinions, only to post trade setups. but they didnt like it cause i didnt have fancy explanations since my trading style is quit simple in its most simple form.
its like wait for 1-2 formation, enter on 3 exit on 4. repeat.. cant get simpler
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offering my system to copy trade. check my link
  • #786
  • Jul 15, 2021 5:45pm Jul 15, 2021 5:45pm
Yesterday, there was an ideal trade, 4-5 RR, on AU 5 min. Shortly after London Open, there was a structure to be exploited. Those session open price levels are very useful.
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  • #787
  • Jul 15, 2021 6:23pm Jul 15, 2021 6:23pm
Are these the Liquidility waiting to be taken? I am starting to lose my faith, the recent market structure at lower timeframe is so unclear to me.
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  • #788
  • Edited 1:22am Jul 16, 2021 1:03am | Edited 1:22am
This is one type of analysis I do when there are important news at the end of the week.

It is purely speculative as I really do not have expectations for it to happen, albeit I just prepare myself for a possible similar reaction.

However, as per my analysis, my initial perception is that the pricing system is somehow moving up by creating a possible low of the week on Wednesday.

As I say, it is just a possible scenario, meaning that I would not buy GU by now because I do not have confirmation for this possible scenario.

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Basically prices do not move randomly when news are released. Apart from details, it means that higher timeframe ranges may be filled. Therefore, if the range being negotiated is the intraday range (US news for US market), then we can take a look at the whole weekly chart, for instance.

Therefore, this could be potentially, and it is not sure yet, the template that the FX GU market is running this week. It is just a possibility as I say. This is only one possible scenario among other thousand scenarios. I don't know actually what is going to happen with GU today.
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  • #789
  • Jul 16, 2021 1:08am Jul 16, 2021 1:08am
Quoting luckyvictor
Are these the Liquidility waiting to be taken? I am starting to lose my faith, the recent market structure at lower timeframe is so unclear to me. {image}
well that is a question for another thread. "1m divergence price action system"

prety similar to mine but different methodology and more advanced
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ystem?page=110

people from there have come here and people from here go there.

as for me, pound structure on all timeframes is still down as i said on a post the other day. and i would only buy with confirmation. confirmation meaning, that to buy for a swing move, i would at least need 5m to change structure. that has not happened, or happened and failed
offering my system to copy trade. check my link
  • #790
  • Jul 16, 2021 1:54am Jul 16, 2021 1:54am
Quoting luckyvictor
Are these the Liquidility waiting to be taken? I am starting to lose my faith, the recent market structure at lower timeframe is so unclear to me. {image}
Seeing along GU i cannot decide, i am anticipating reaction on these RN and see what it is going to do, if i correlate it with dollar getting stronger day by day i wish to see GU make a LL,
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #791
  • Jul 16, 2021 2:08am Jul 16, 2021 2:08am
From the M15 perspective, this could be another valid scenario.
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  • #792
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:00am Jul 16, 2021 3:00am
Quoting nikosk0
{quote} well that is a question for another thread. "1m divergence price action system" prety similar to mine but different methodology and more advanced https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ystem?page=110 people from there have come here and people from here go there. as for me, pound structure on all timeframes is still down as i said on a post the other day. and i would only buy with confirmation. confirmation meaning, that to buy for a swing move, i would at least need 5m to change structure. that has not happened,...
I have been shorting this morning GU btw and the PA showed a penetration of the last Wednesday's low. I think there are chances to price to reach the 1.378 area. But that is unimportant. The high-probability shorting opportunities for this European market area almost finished since it has already expanded around 40 pips and there are already signs of fixing imbalances or taking hedging positions and all the stuff. I mean, the European selling program seems quite advanced.

Imo it would be prudent waiting till the news are released at 8:30 EST time. If price shows an ascending PA it could be a huge rally.

On the other side, it may happen that the news won't have a noticeable effect; therefore the price is now very low and interesting to stalk long positions if the PA offers that opportunity. I think it would not be wise looking for further shorting today that is Friday for now, while we could reasonabily enter the game later expecting prices returning back into equllibrium as the week ends. However, we need a setup for that and this morning price direction is still negative.

We have to be completely relative when trading because this is a stochastic problem; we always act after the market talks; we cannot anticipate to what is going to happen, just respond when the markets give to us a signal.

This was my setup for today's European markets. I had to close it due to technical issues and could not complete the expansion, but only a part of it. I just share it so you can analyze it using @nikosk0 patterns. My first take profit level was at the level the red arrow ends, I was short.

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  • #793
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:33am Jul 16, 2021 3:33am
Quoting scherzi
This is one type of analysis I do when there are important news at the end of the week. It is purely speculative as I really do not have expectations for it to happen, albeit I just prepare myself for a possible similar reaction. However, as per my analysis, my initial perception is that the pricing system is somehow moving up by creating a possible low of the week on Wednesday. As I say, it is just a possible scenario, meaning that I would not buy GU by now because I do not have confirmation for this possible scenario. {image} Basically prices...
Yesterday's M15 structure just drove me crazy, it went up and down creating intraday high then intraday low. Hence I was losing my faith.

I did see or believe that market has taken a step up since 09/07 as it no longer created a low lower than last week
  • #794
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:36am Jul 16, 2021 3:36am
Quoting nikosk0
{quote} well that is a question for another thread. "1m divergence price action system" prety similar to mine but different methodology and more advanced https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ystem?page=110 people from there have come here and people from here go there. as for me, pound structure on all timeframes is still down as i said on a post the other day. and i would only buy with confirmation. confirmation meaning, that to buy for a swing move, i would at least need 5m to change structure. that has not happened,...
Yes, I found both of them very helpful.

At the end of the day, chart is the chart, price is the price, but everyone has his unique angle to look at it and interpret it. I do find a lot of similarity between these two threads.
  • #795
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:36am Jul 16, 2021 3:36am
GJ is breaking structure upwards from M5 level towards the H4 level
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  • #796
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:37am Jul 16, 2021 3:37am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Seeing along GU i cannot decide, i am anticipating reaction on these RN and see what it is going to do, if i correlate it with dollar getting stronger day by day i wish to see GU make a LL, {image}
What is RN please? I also see FB and QN somewhere, what do they stand for please?
  • #797
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:54am Jul 16, 2021 3:54am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} Yesterday's M15 structure just drove me crazy, it went up and down creating intraday high then intraday low. Hence I was losing my faith. I did see or believe that market has taken a step up since 09/07 as it no longer created a low lower than last week
Yes, this week was atypical. I thought it was because of the news release planned for today's US morning.

That is why I thought the markets would try to strike the lows and then push forward up to the highs and reset the market from the bottom to the top.

Since it may be illegal in normal circumstances, with the excuse of the news no one is going to ask why a market oscillates ten times what it would do in normal circumstances inside a small time interval.

With all that in mind, I was expecting Friday to be a crucial day for the week in terms of pips.

I shorted today expecting new lows to be chased after observing the first minutes after the Europan markets opened, but expecting a later huge rally.

My opinion was that the most logical moment would be at 8:30 EST time since we have news then. However I won't be trading today during American sessions, it is Friday and I have better plans today at that hour that imply a lot of fun and no stress.

But see, we never know the exact sequence of events. I think that the current rally is dangerous due to the fact we have news, and it could cause a whiplash effect later, running lows and then retaking the highs.

In any case, what it was a high probability even is that at or near this week's low, we were going to see an important rally. I did not expected it too soon, otherwise I would have been trading it. In any case, I am already done for this week and going to start enjoying the weekend.

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  • #798
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:57am Jul 16, 2021 3:57am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} I have been shorting this morning GU btw and the PA showed a penetration of the last Wednesday's low. I think there are chances to price to reach the 1.378 area. But that is unimportant. The high-probability shorting opportunities for this European market area almost finished since it has already expanded around 40 pips and there are already signs of fixing imbalances or taking hedging positions and all the stuff. I mean, the European selling program seems quite advanced. Imo it would be prudent waiting till the news are released at 8:30...
What a beautiful short, just right on the point!

Thank you for sharing your insight, it takes me time to digest, but i still dont fully understand it.

"The high-probability shorting opportunities for this European market area almost finished since it has already expanded around 40 pips and there are already signs of fixing imbalances or taking hedging positions and all the stuff"

GU can easily move over 40pip, what is the significant of this range? and where do you measure it from?
What are the signs you see the imbalance is being fixed? and hedging position are being taken?

"Imo it would be prudent waiting till the news are released at 8:30 EST time. If price shows an ascending PA it could be a huge rally."

at the time i am replying, you have got it right exactly (I know you dont encourage predicting, and you trade by reacting it, I am just amazed how much your experience is).

Why a huge rally? I mean you do seem to expect a huge rally and not just a recovery.

"it may happen that the news won't have a noticeable effect; therefore the price is now very low"

it is now very low because it has formed a new weekly low? and even though there is PA showing up, wouldn't you trade against the trend?

while we could reasonabily enter the game later expecting prices returning back into equllibrium as the week ends

is it a market phenomenon? The equilibrium here, it is in terms of order imbalance or mean/moving average?

I know i have a lot of questions, I am just doing my very best to understand every single word you say in here, I can tell is a lot of wisdom and experience.

Much much appreciated!
  • #799
  • Jul 16, 2021 4:12am Jul 16, 2021 4:12am
More of GJ...
Slight correction b4 mooning...
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  • #800
  • Edited 4:50am Jul 16, 2021 4:27am | Edited 4:50am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote}GU can easily move over 40pip, what is the significant of this range? and where do you measure it from?
What are the signs you see the imbalance is being fixed? and hedging position are being taken?
Price moves back and forward. If this week's market action is lowering prices, which other reason other than clearing imbalances and taking hedging positions for risk covering could that be for?

For GU, ~70-100 pips in two hours is a huge move considering this last week range. That is what I mean. A sudden move that allows you to take more than, let's say, 50 pips in 15-30 minutes.

Quoting luckyvictor
{quote}at the time i am replying, you have got it right exactly (I know you dont encourage predicting, and you trade by reacting it, I am just amazed how much your experience is).
I traded in demo and using simulation during the first 4-5 years without an exception. I never traded live before I got good practice. Then I started gradually to go live. For most of us trading has been a very costly and frustrating experience for months or even years. I know no one who has not lost thousands of dollars before becoming a breakeven trader. And what is more common, what happens almost always, is seeing people abandoning in less than one year of failures.

Quoting luckyvictor
{quote}Why a huge rally? I mean you do seem to expect a huge rally and not just a recovery.
Because we have news there is a potential situation for a move above the daily average range. Also because Monday formed (or was part of) the high of the week (I think), that is abnormal.

Quoting luckyvictor
{quote}it is now very low because it has formed a new weekly low? and even though there is PA showing up, wouldn't you trade against the trend?
I would never trade against the main directionality. That is why I do not trade anticipating, but reacting.


Quoting luckyvictor
{quote}is it a market phenomenon? The equilibrium here, it is in terms of order imbalance or mean/moving average?
Creating the lower wick of the weekly candlestick requires prices to move up at some extent during Friday.

Prices are low if you compare them to the beginning of the week. Therefore, there will be a lot of traders willing to sell above waiting now. If the market does not take care of their customers, the customers will leave that market and find a better place to negotiate. That is what makes me think that maybe the market will try to satisfy these waiting clients. At least the VIP ones. From that perspective, there are chances for it to happen. But markets must speak first to validate anything. Otherwise it is just speculating and nothing has been revealed to me to think that is how the events will finally unfold today.

The equillibrium is something closer to the 50% of the weekly range than it was today when markets opened in Europe. Over multiple weeks, the equllibrium would be the middle of the weekly range more or less as a rule of thumb. However defining accurately the equillibrium is quite complex.

However, all this is really out of the scope of this thread and it is overcomplicating.

My advice is you to focus on this thread main ideas; it is more than enough.
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