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  • #1,841
  • Jul 13, 2021 7:52am Jul 13, 2021 7:52am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi kK100 I have done that with a few buddies three years ago to prove liquidity is thin. We as a group brought AUDNZD a few minutes after day open and got a half a pip movement when the spread was large. Admittedly we loss our money on spread but we did nudge price just a small bit. Cheers
Rick,
I mean no disrespect, but are you so sure that your group nudged AUDNZD higher? There's not a direct currency for AUDNZD; AUDNZD is a derivative of AUDUSD & NZDUSD, therefore the movement of AUDNZD is not independent but due to buying/selling AUDUSD against buying/selling NZDUSD.

Just saying...

Best,

Dave
  • #1,842
  • Jul 13, 2021 8:35am Jul 13, 2021 8:35am
Quoting davelansing
{quote} Rick, I mean no disrespect, but are you so sure that your group nudged AUDNZD higher? There's not a direct currency for AUDNZD; AUDNZD is a derivative of AUDUSD & NZDUSD, therefore the movement of AUDNZD is not independent but due to buying/selling AUDUSD against buying/selling NZDUSD. Just saying... Best, Dave
Hi Dave

That was a debate we had for months after. We saw an immediate half a pip movement upwards as we all brought at the same time so we wanted to believe if was our group.
Looking back at that test now, I believe you are totally correct and we should have taken NZDUSD instead.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,843
  • Edited 1:00pm Jul 13, 2021 12:44pm | Edited 1:00pm
just for motivation, and power of intraday.

for charts:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13624668
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,844
  • Jul 13, 2021 9:02pm Jul 13, 2021 9:02pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Sure. Imbalance is not Buy vol / Sell vol. It is the line (or colored rectangle) that trader scherzi placed on his charts with a strong theory in the background why we should not divide buy volume on sell volume but use random magic rectangles instead.
Hey ryuryu,

scherzi is not someone who is willing to defend an idea or position. Instead they will ignore you. Save your effort friend. This is the ego I was speaking of earlier.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,845
  • Jul 14, 2021 4:36am Jul 14, 2021 4:36am
Quoting BWilliam
Day trading is about answering this question. At what point in live market do you know with some certainty price is moving towards T1 or T2? Same question every trading day. {image}
Swing trading is about answering this question. At what point in live market do you know with some certainty price is moving towards T1 or T2? Same question every trading week.

For position trading, this same question is asked every trading month.

Quoting remonpilip
However, short term patterns and repetitive short term cycles with predictive value, do not exist. There is no “secret,” there is no predictive ability, its random, like a roulette wheel. That is why you cannot make any significant money in the long term from day trading. There is not enough time for these patterns or fractals to appear. You cannot see the pattern of self similar until it emerges over a longer term! BUT! Traders can exploit the longer-term trend component of market price action to obtain a statistical edge. This is precisely what...
Like many traders, OP made this claim.

From the 2 charts I posted, if I blotted out the timeframe don't the 2 charts look the same? You can't tell one from the other.

Do patterns exist ?
You do your own research to determine that. No one can tell you that. The collated empirical data is the answer.

Either patterns exist or they don't. The timeframe doesn't matter.

What really matter is whether this pattern is objectively quantified.
***I use the same objectively quantified algo math for all timeframes.

Do you think staring at naked charts is an objectively quantified approach ?

The reason why I ask this same irritating question is because that's what the master algo is all about that has got nothing to do with economics 101.
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Know what you trade
  • #1,846
  • Jul 14, 2021 6:26am Jul 14, 2021 6:26am
First 5% per day, now master algo revealed
What's next? Sacrifices on positive PnL?
Observer effect
  • #1,847
  • Jul 14, 2021 8:06am Jul 14, 2021 8:06am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey ryuryu, scherzi is not someone who is willing to defend an idea or position. Instead they will ignore you. Save your effort friend. This is the ego I was speaking of earlier. - Ric
Haha

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Observer effect
  • #1,848
  • Edited 10:09am Jul 14, 2021 9:11am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Swing trading is about answering this question. At what point in live market do you know with some certainty price is moving towards T1 or T2? Same question every trading week. For position trading, this same question is asked every trading month. {quote} Like many traders, OP made this claim. From the 2 charts I posted, if I blotted out the timeframe don't the 2 charts look the same? You can't tell one from the other. Do patterns exist ? You do your own research to determine that. No one can tell you that. The collated empirical data is...
Patterns (generically speaking) exist on every timeframe. The programs that set prices in markets are mostly agnostic to our OHLC-based charts in marginal terms. But they are not agnostic to human cycles, hence, pricing programs usually overlap our time. For instance, a month has 20 daily bars, an hour 60 minutes, one quarter 3 months. These kind of cycles define the programs released by exchanges and the templates that prices should be following.

Just an example, this is very long to explain, how would you estimate the liquidity you need as an exchange for tomorrow if you have an unexpected order of $50 trillion dollars versus if you dot have any exceptional situation? You should use any kind of program that estimates a volume L that depends on a time that is proportional to one day. This is very long, I hope this little example will be clear.

From a visual perspective, it is easy to see how patterns exist. The problem is always, how to exploit them, this is, how to anticipate their formation in real time. For instance, the most basic price shape I track are channels. Please, do not assume I track channels in a particular way. Besides, see how price fluctuates around a central axis, moving up an down sequentially.

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Obviously channels exist on every timeframe. Here you have one well-known pattern. There are other patterns that are so obvious and simple that you would be atonished to know them.

I do not trust the chart patterns that are taught online or on books (the typical chart patterns), therefore I do not have a qualified opinion about it. I only know one person that seems to use only these old patterns alone. And I know a lot of people.

Another important factor are news releases. You can assume that exchanges use these type of news to break any restriction they have to disrupt the markets. It is like riding a bull when news are released, so pay attention to it and stay outside markets always during the hour before and after news are released.

Then, trading requires years of study and practice. No exceptions to that I know. And a lot of frustration, money and headaches.

Finally, you must adapt trading to your own personality. Are you intuitive or rational? Visual or spatial? Do you prefer charts or a dashboard to take decisions? Do you prefer fast charst or lower timeframes? Do you have money enough to hold positions one week or one year? Do you know a specific asset type or market?

You need to be aware of yourself and acquire an extensive knowledge of a working trading style and the market and asset class you will choose.

And people lie, people usually won't share their failures. We fail many times, so do not trust those who only show their trades when they're in the money. Never compare yourself to another person, you should compare yourself only to who you were in the past and nothing else.

I hope this helps you a bit to understand the problem you have ahead.
Another simple pattern that is always ignored by most of the "classical" chart pattern traders is the fact that we must buy low and sell high. When you take any range, you can assume that any level below 50% is mostly low and any level above 50% is high. This, for instance, implies that if you buy a bullish breakout of a pattern, you are buying at the highest price (the highest price of your reference structure), for instance. And that goes against the most basic rules in Economics. I tell you this to warn you about the fact that the chart pattern literature is basically always doing the opposite that common sense dictates from this perspective. Please, take always my words in relative terms.

About TDI, bollinger bands, EMAS and the indicators that most commercial platform include. Just think that prices are closer to an exponential function than to a normal one. Prices are not exponential, but they are not at all normal. This means, any measure based in averages DO NOT REPRESENT the market state, at least, accurately enough. For instance, normal distributions assume 3 or 4 sigmas as an outlier. In markets, you will have everyday more than 7 sigmas of deviation perfectly on your charts.

Regarding pips, today I have taken 4 trades so far. Look the last one. 14 pips only. But it was a high-probability setup on the 1-minute chart with cost-gain ratio of 1, meaning, I risk the same I want to earn. The important thing is not how many pips you make, but how you configure your risk.reward ratio.

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My team trades perfectly $10K-$20K positions on the m1 chart for trading spot Bitcoin for instance, I mean, you can choose any timeframe you wish. I like Forex and am impatient, so I usually choose timeframes lower than M30. Others feel better on H4-D1 usually. If you have a 9-to-5 job, you will have to trade on daily or H4 for sure. With cfds I am leveraged, but I only work without margin when I trade options or cryptocurrencies. I almost never trade short positions when I trade cryptos and I do not use stop loss for cryptos, while I am bidirectional with cfds and always set relatively tight stop loss and tp levels with these markets. Very occassionally you may see me using a bit of leverage with cryptos futures, etc...

This topic is infinite

Have a nice day.
  • #1,849
  • Jul 14, 2021 10:42am Jul 14, 2021 10:42am
Quoting scherzi
Another simple pattern that is always ignored by most of the "classical" chart pattern traders is the fact that we must buy low and sell high. When you take any range, you can assume that any level below 50% is mostly low and any level above 50% is high. This, for instance, implies that if you buy a bullish breakout of a pattern, you are buying at the highest price (the highest price of your reference structure), for instance. And that goes against the most basic rules in Economics.
How do you know when the breakout happens?

How to know which way range could be broken - up or down? And how to know when range ends/continues?

When I see the range is recently broken... why not follow the breakout direction (wait for some pullback and then follow breakout)?
  • #1,850
  • Jul 14, 2021 11:50am Jul 14, 2021 11:50am
Quoting scherzi
And people lie, people usually won't share their failures. We fail many times, so do not trust those who only show their trades when they're in the money. Never compare yourself to another person, you should compare yourself only to who you were in the past and nothing else.
I do not compare with my results. I don't need to see other's money just growth % for at least 3 months to consider that trader know what he speaks. But yes - very rare speakers have something to show for at least 3 months... a lot of arguing, ideas and advices but not backed with results. That's ok... people often do not walk their talk. That is an advantage for those who do things differently.

You can see in my profile failed accounts too. I expose my failures so all see I am honest and failures remind me of my mistakes.

I keep in myfxbook losing accounts too. When will clear them from the portfolio will audit screenshot in my thread for reference so people can follow my path.
  • #1,851
  • Edited 12:30pm Jul 14, 2021 12:20pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} How do you know when the breakout happens? How to know which way range could be broken - up or down? And how to know when range ends/continues? When I see the range is recently broken... why not follow the breakout direction (wait for some pullback and then follow breakout)?
When the range is broken you are outside any structure or reference related to that range, therefore, in my humble opinion, you should rely very lightly on the range since price is not anymore there. Price is connected to the range while it is there. Then, price will be going to another range anywhere else.

The breakout is an illusion, once the price is beyond a structure, there is no a particular breakout action, the only thing there is that price left the trading area it was before in which implies nothing. That is another question why I do not trust the classic chart patterns, because most of them are traded upon breakouts.

Therefore, the approach I am more confortable with to chart patterns is to trade from inside the pattern I want to trade. Can you see a pattern inside the pattern that you can use for trading it? Another catch is using a couple of timeframes or more. Today I have been trading only GBPUSD, during the European session and then during the first hours of the US session only tracking m1 and m5 and ADR. That's it.

Regarding your questions on ranges, you need to study them. You cannot know when a range is going to be broken. No one knows what price will do in the future. But you know this:
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Quoting gepards
{quote}When I see the range is recently broken... why not follow the breakout direction (wait for some pullback and then follow breakout)?
In my opinion, because you don't know if the price is going to continue moving forward or not. In my opinion, that would be looking at something that does not exist anymore in your current price context.

Instead of looking back, why don't you try to look at the present? What is doing price now? Where is the next area of consolidation in the direction of the current price movement? Are you in the middle of a sharp move already or not? What time is it? What day of the week is it today? Is there a relationship between the range of the last consolidation or range and the distance to the next area?

What is the market doing? Is it returning back to recently traded areas? Or is is moving to new fresh price areas? Is price reaching an important level such a 200EMA or a previous weekly high (from below?/from above?)? Is it on it already now?

Has price fallen significantly and therefore offers low prices and you expect a buy action now that the asset is relatively cheap? Or is it high relative to your reference structure and therefore expensive and attractive for selling?

I do not use indicators except the japanese candlesticks and sometimes kind of range counters (number of pips). Sometimes I use Fibos to help me determine if prices are cheap or expensive between two reference points. I only sell and never buy above 50% and only buy and never sell below 50%. That's it. So, for me it is impossible to buy a breakout above my range, for instance. I need another structure, at least an additional one for buying if price just broke out above, because now I am at a very high level of price respective to the broken range, beyond the 100% of the range, and I only buy below 50% as a rule of thumb.

You do not need all this information, no one needs. But since I don't know how you look at charts, I try to put different examples.

I hope my English is clear enough.
  • #1,852
  • Jul 14, 2021 12:24pm Jul 14, 2021 12:24pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} I do not compare with my results. I don't need to see other's money just growth % for at least 3 months to consider that trader know what he speaks. But yes - very rare speakers have something to show for at least 3 months... a lot of arguing, ideas and advices but not backed with results. That's ok... people often do not walk their talk. That is an advantage for those who do things differently. You can see in my profile failed accounts too. I expose my failures so all see I am honest and failures remind me of my mistakes. I keep in myfxbook...
ops, I have not checked your profile. Sorry.

May be my explanations a bit redundant for you if you already have experience.

I thought you were new to trading, sorry.

Another important thing is that I am not saying that trading breakouts is not legit and profitable. I am just expressing that I do not do it because of how I look at charts and because the reasons behind the usual theories that support breakout trading do not correspond to how the markets change prices, since we can see that volume does not correlate with price change, enough at least, to infer a direct instant relationship between both basically.

Should extreme volumes have a longer-term effect on price change? Probably yes.
  • #1,853
  • Jul 14, 2021 12:37pm Jul 14, 2021 12:37pm
This is the image I posted above.

It is not a setup, just what I see when I look at the chart in terms of price. 341 is the number of points the market has traded so far. It helps me determining the remaining potential volatility.

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Look at the m5 chart at that time. What do you think that was the predominant directionality? One does not need any kind of indicator other than a few candlesticks to spot the main situation of your price.

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  • #1,854
  • Jul 14, 2021 12:56pm Jul 14, 2021 12:56pm
Fractality helps to know where we are. Just regarding the particual range that is completely arbitrary except because price was recently there.

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  • #1,855
  • Jul 14, 2021 1:10pm Jul 14, 2021 1:10pm
Quoting scherzi
Fractality helps to know where we are. Just regarding the particual range that is completely arbitrary except because price was recently there. {image}
Hi Scherzi

How you identify where to exit or take profit.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,856
  • Jul 14, 2021 6:01pm Jul 14, 2021 6:01pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Haha {image}
Need I say more.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,857
  • Jul 14, 2021 9:33pm Jul 14, 2021 9:33pm
Quoting scherzi
{quote} Patterns (generically speaking) exist on every timeframe. The programs that set prices in markets are mostly agnostic to our OHLC-based charts in marginal terms. But they are not agnostic to human cycles, hence, pricing programs usually overlap our time. For instance, a month has 20 daily bars, an hour 60 minutes, one quarter 3 months. These kind of cycles define the programs released by exchanges and the templates that prices should be following. Just an example, this is very long to explain, how would you estimate the liquidity you need...
Hi Scherzi

Patterns exist only in history, mainly because our human minds look for ways to make sense of the manic markets.

We trade the future not the past so no patterns have yet to be created.

We just trade probability’s and nothing else.
Its a very bad look to say you can trade off channels that have occurred in the past - that’s unprofitable guess work.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,858
  • Jul 14, 2021 10:00pm Jul 14, 2021 10:00pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
"Modern people" need to learn that trading has very, very little to do with money and more to do with control over the past, present and future of a moment. Peter
...
  • #1,859
  • Edited 11:10pm Jul 14, 2021 10:53pm | Edited 11:10pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Scherzi Patterns exist only in history, mainly because our human minds look for ways to make sense of the manic markets. We trade the future not the past so no patterns have yet to be created. We just trade probability’s and nothing else. Its a very bad look to say you can trade off channels that have occurred in the past - that’s unprofitable guess work.
Everything has past even price! what has happened is not gone but how well/poor it did in past going to build the future, same goes for us coincidently and with price too.

Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Swing trading is about answering this question. At what point in live market do you know with some certainty price is moving towards T1 or T2? Same question every trading week. For position trading, this same question is asked every trading month. {quote} Like many traders, OP made this claim. From the 2 charts I posted, if I blotted out the timeframe don't the 2 charts look the same? You can't tell one from the other. Do patterns exist ? You do your own research to determine that. No one can tell you that. The collated empirical data is...
These channels, Tmas are hindrances to mind to see beyond it as these will boxed/trained our mind to them alone not price itself. newbies like me try to take support on these stuff, but in reality it becomes the blockage. that's how i feel, yes its not totally wrong any method can be devised on any thing all it lands down to risk management and patience.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,860
  • Jul 15, 2021 12:34am Jul 15, 2021 12:34am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Scherzi Patterns exist only in history, mainly because our human minds look for ways to make sense of the manic markets. We trade the future not the past so no patterns have yet to be created. We just trade probability’s and nothing else. Its a very bad look to say you can trade off channels that have occurred in the past - that’s unprofitable guess work.
All probabilities are guesswork. Trading a channel simply begs the question of "what's the probability that this channel will become irrelevant before I finish profiting off of it?"

Trading a channel right when NFP is released is a terrible idea. If the probability of losing when trading a channel during NFP's release is greater than otherwise then it, by clear logic, is a less terrible idea otherwise when NFP isn't being released.

The ability to mitigate risk should never be underestimated as a tool to turn a bad outlook into a good one.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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