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The brutal truth of day trading

Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Seems you've found the wrong forum. Maybe you need to visit an investing forum. This is a trading forum for all of us trading suckers.
Yeah probably. I sometimes go into 1hr and 4hr timeframes, but I cannot make head or tail of these 15min systems at all.
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} spot on! rest all the are excuses to calm oneself that i know everything. and not ready to accept their is beyond what we already know. these are not by luck. {image} {image} {image}
Actually... quite a bit of luck involved that you aren't seeing. You don't need to know everything. You just need to have seen enough to know there isn't much left to see.

One day, after my mother sent me to elementary school, the class played a game with a ball that looked like the earth. We tossed the ball around the class and each time we recorded when our right thumb landed on water. Most of the children were fascinated that her son's thumb landed on water nearly 72% of the time. Yet, immediately afterwards... none of them seemed to understand why the game was played.

That, really, was all I needed to see.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,883
  • Quote
  • Jul 15, 2021 10:20am Jul 15, 2021 10:20am
Quoting JauntyLoon
Your probability of making money trading a large U.S. index (or ETF that tracks it) has been shown to increase the longer you buy and hold it. So that, over ten years for instance, you will likely make an annual return of 10 - 15% on the S&P 500. Day trading does not even give you a 50% chance of making money, for reasons stated above. You're not just factoring in the probability of price going up or down. You also must account for fees, commission, risk:reward ratio (i.e. the price is going to go up and down over any given period, so your stop...
I'm glad to see you know how a trader's journey gets told. My only question about how you came by this information is... did you hear it from a trader?

A new sucker is born every minute.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,884
  • Quote
  • Jul 15, 2021 10:22am Jul 15, 2021 10:22am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I'm glad to see you know how a trader's journey gets told. My only question about how you came by this information is... did you hear it from a trader? A new sucker is born every minute.
I understand that anyone who attempts trading and doesn't do it right is not considered a trader.

However, I remain sceptical until I see proof of results (returns) from those 'real' traders
  • #1,885
  • Quote
  • Jul 15, 2021 10:27am Jul 15, 2021 10:27am
Dead simple. Just put your stops near the pivots. How could anyone not be able to make easy money doing this?
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  • #1,886
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  • Jul 15, 2021 10:35am Jul 15, 2021 10:35am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} I understand that anyone who attempts trading and doesn't do it right is not considered a trader. However, I remain sceptical until I see proof of results (returns) from those 'real' traders
Well, don't ask me for them. This is my 519th week at this sucker's game and I haven't made a single cent. I'm just praying I double or quadruple my money next week.

The odds are looking pretty good.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,887
  • Quote
  • Jul 15, 2021 10:43am Jul 15, 2021 10:43am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Actually... quite a bit of luck involved that you aren't seeing. You don't need to know everything. You just need to have seen enough to know there isn't much left to see. One day, after my mother sent me to elementary school, the class played a game with a ball that looked like the earth. We tossed the ball around the class and each time we recorded when our right thumb landed on water. Most of the children were fascinated that her son's thumb landed on water nearly 72% of the time. Yet, immediately afterwards... none of them seemed to...
72% should be enough for me
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,888
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  • Jul 15, 2021 11:01am Jul 15, 2021 11:01am
If you're dead-certain of a 72% win rate, why don't you remortgage your house, quit your day job, max out your credit and go all in? If your R:R rate is calculated correctly then there's nothing between you and millions of dollars.
  • #1,889
  • Quote
  • Jul 15, 2021 11:02am Jul 15, 2021 11:02am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} 72% should be enough for me {image} {image}

I see a massive amount of noise in those charts, with the support/resistance lines being often violated and price not clearly going anywhere for a sustained period.

How is it possible to have an accurate R:R or even put stops/TP on such a chart? This is what I ask myself.
  • #1,890
  • Quote
  • Jul 15, 2021 11:30am Jul 15, 2021 11:30am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} I see a massive amount of noise in those charts, with the support/resistance lines being often violated and price not clearly going anywhere for a sustained period. How is it possible to have an accurate R:R or even put stops/TP on such a chart? This is what I ask myself.
Support resistance are meant to be voilated thats is not noise

Stop when price go against few pips close it manually not hard stops, unless trading news time them stop is must.

Tp usually depends from which place one has entered in only that can decide if you can hold for long but i always takes partials and let the rest run,
"Exchange of hands"
Quoting JauntyLoon
If you're dead-certain of a 72% win rate, why don't you remortgage your house, quit your day job, max out your credit and go all in? If your R:R rate is calculated correctly then there's nothing between you and millions of dollars.
What makes you suspect I've ever had a problem with being all-in? I would've had to have had a house, a day job that seemed worth keeping, and credit to lose.

Losing all of their money 100x over certainly isn't the 'worst' thing that can happen to someone.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
Quoting JauntyLoon
If you're dead-certain of a 72% win rate, why don't you remortgage your house, quit your day job, max out your credit and go all in? If your R:R rate is calculated correctly then there's nothing between you and millions of dollars.
Forget about win rate crap bs. Start with winning the next trade. Take it slow, very slow. And the next.... One trade at a time. Limit to one trade a day. Or one trade a week. Only one, not more. Close your computer, take the dog for a walk, go to the gym, go fishing.

If the trader can't focus on his next trade why talk about 50trades a day? Why talk about win rate? The next trade today or this week is all that matter.

This thread reveals a clear divide into 2 groups. The super genius Einstein traders with fantastic win rate 50-100 trades a day. On the way to their fantasy billions tomorrow. Seriously, I'm jealous. Be kind, can you mentor me for free pls.

The other group is the naysayers and losers. Your whining stinks. Worse than my wife.

Who is in the group of trying hard to win 1 trade a day or a week, worth 0.1% per trade? I'm trying to figure out who's in this group. Put up your hand pls.
Trade the value
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Yeah probably. I sometimes go into 1hr and 4hr timeframes, but I cannot make head or tail of these 15min systems at all.


Hi JauntyL, welcome to the jungle


Now I am not proposing this as a system at all.

Each to their own.

But the 15m has its own idiosyncracies, just like the 1hr & 4hr.

Some call it the fractal nature of the markets.


.
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Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Forget about win rate crap bs. Start with winning the next trade. Take it slow, very slow. And the next.... One trade at a time. Limit to one trade a day. Or one trade a week. Only one, not more. Close your computer, take the dog for a walk, go to the gym, go fishing. If the trader can't focus on his next trade why talk about 50trades a day? Why talk about win rate? The next trade today or this week is all that matter. This thread reveals a clear divide into 2 groups. The super genius Einstein traders with fantastic win rate 50-100 trades...
Mate, stop being so rude, and get your head out of your arse.
You don’t need to be smart if you can access level 2 data, you just need experience and an aggressive mindset.

There is 50 clear easy set up winnable trades a day on 3 or 4 pairs if you hunt for them on M1
Those wins may only be for a handful of pips but so what.

Its a wage.

On H1, it is hard to find a couple of 80% winnable trades.
On M1, it’s easy to find 20 or more 80% winnable trades.

But we don’t focus on win rates, we focus on achieving profit targets every single day.
Last night I took 53 trades for an equity increase of 0.39%. Nothing special but it pays by bills and a few cans of Pepsi.

Every single day.

PS. That doesn’t mean I don’t like your work but don’t fall into the trap of believing your way is the only way.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Mate, stop being so rude, and get your head out of your arse. You don’t need to be smart if you can access level 2 data, you just need experience and an aggressive mindset. There is 50 clear easy set up winnable trades a day on 3 or 4 pairs if you hunt for them on M1 Those wins may only be for a handful of pips but so what. Its a wage. On H1, it is hard to find a couple of 80% winnable trades. On M1, it’s easy to find 20 or more 80% winnable trades. But we don’t focus on win rates, we focus on achieving profit targets every single day. Last...
Lol
I was provoking for a response.

I was thinking if you guys can do 50 easy trades with 90+% win rate, why don't you sign up with those prop firms to make tons of money at no risk?

Make money on the first buy in. Use the profit to fund the rest of the buy in. I calculated it can be over a million free funding earning a hundred grand a month. Take 6-12 months to do it.
Trade the value
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Lol I was provoking for a response. I was thinking if you guys can do 50 easy trades with 90+% win rate, why don't you sign up with those prop firms to make tons of money at no risk? Make money on the first buy in. Use the profit to fund the rest of the buy in. I calculated it can be over a million free funding earning a hundred grand a month. Take 6-12 months to do it.
Hi BWilliams

I was just bored which is the reason I replied, and I don’t have a dog I can walk.

Yes 80% of my trades are winners earning me on average 1% a day increase in equity.
But 20% of trades lose me about 0.50% of equity so that’s the issue.

Ensuring your losing trades are cut early and not destroying your profits you make on your winnings.
So high win rates been nothing if you can’t cut the few bad calls you made early and that is hard to do.

Of course averaging down breaks most traders, and probably the single biggest reason why traders fail.

The prop firms condition you to fail, most traders once funded relax in their first month of trading and fail.
It a sad thing to say but if you can’t save enough for a decent equity, chances of making in the trading world is 1%.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,897
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  • Edited 9:47pm Jul 15, 2021 9:09pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi BWilliams I was just bored which is the reason I replied, and I don’t have a dog I can walk. Yes 80% of my trades are winners earning me on average 1% a day increase in equity. But 20% of trades lose me about 0.50% of equity so that’s the issue. Ensuring your losing trades are cut early and not destroying your profits you make on your winnings. So high win rates been nothing if you can’t cut the few bad calls you made early and that is hard to do. Of course averaging down breaks most traders, and probably the single biggest reason why...
Imo taking all things into consideration, chances of success in forex is 0.1% and lower.
So, in a way the naysayers are correct.
People don't realise how hard it takes to make money from forex trading.
Finding a real trading edge is very close to impossible.
That's the honest brutal truth.
I hate to say this, makes me a naysayer.

Just my opinion, you may disagree.
Earning a wage with forex trading is not the way to go.
Day trading for a living is madness.
Trading for a living is madness.
It's a very difficult road.
If you're struggling trying this path, my advice is quit.
If you're thinking of trying this path, don't.
Get a job.

If you don't have the money to fund a proper size account, forex trading is not for you.

If you don't have the money but got the brains then buy in the smallest package under $50, grind your way up the mountain. If you are good it takes a year. If you're no good don't waste your money.

Forex trading is weird.
If you don't have the money, risk everything.
If you have the money or made the money risk nothing.

So what's forex trading for ? Since it's not for earning a living.
Downpayment for your prime CBD property.
Audi RS7 or AMG GT 63S.
Platinum membership with The Star or Crown Sydney.

That's the brutal truth about forex trading.
Trade the value
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi ryuryu Don't get me started on Risk & Reward Ratios - a sure way to add to your brokers profits. I have three primary money management Rules - 1.. Don't entry a trade unless your likely of success is over 80% 2.. If its wrong, get the hell out. 3.. Never let your draw down grow to more than your 50% of your daily profit target. In my case I aim for 0.50% increase in equity every day, I will never let any one trade grow to more than 0.25% in draw down. A success trading day for me is not if I get 0.25%, 0.50% or even 1% increase in equity...
Hey RickM & ryuyryu,

Risk to reward ratios are under the same category as win loss/ratios. Junk. It means nothing. They only thing you can control with a good amount of certainty is risk. Sure you can risk 50 and want to get 100 for a 2 to 1 ratio, that does not mean you will get it. You can win 1 pip 100 times and lose 100 pips 1 time and the win loss is 99% but after fees, commissions and spread you are in the negative.

I use return on risk. Risk $1000 and collect $350 after fees. I just made 35%. You do not risk the whole account per trade. Yes, you should use 2% or less of your account balance as total risk per open trade (I use 1% or less) but don't calculate the gains bases on your account balance.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,899
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:40pm Jul 15, 2021 9:22pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey RickM & ryuyryu, Risk to reward ratios are under the same category as win loss/ratios. Junk. It means nothing. They only thing you can control with a good amount of certainty is risk. Sure you can risk 50 and want to get 100 for a 2 to 1 ratio, that does not mean you will get it. You can win 1 pip 100 times and lose 100 pips 1 time and the win loss is 99% but after fees, commissions and spread you are in the negative. I use return on risk. Risk $1000 and collect $350 after fees. I just made 35%. You do not risk the whole account per...
Hi riclater

I think 2% is madness.

In day trading, if I trade my $100,000 account (I have three $50K accounts but only trading one at present), I would only risk $250 and I am out.

To be honest I hedge but never more than 0.25%.
Seriously the trades wrong at more than that, you mad staying in and you will likely never make it as a day trader.
edit. My point is once the trade heads in the wrong direction by more than a handful of pips, you are relying on LUCK.
DAY TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY

But if you got 35% great trading.

I am happy with 0.05% per win and repeat than 20-30 times a day. I know I will suffer a couple of 0.25% losses but I still get my mortgage paid.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Imo taking all things into consideration, chances of success in forex is 0.1% and lower. So, in a way the naysayers are correct. People don't realise how hard it takes to make money from forex trading. Finding a real trading edge is very close to impossible. That's the honest brutal truth. I hate to say this, makes me a naysayer. Just my opinion, you may disagree. Earning a wage with forex trading is not the way to go. Day trading for a living is madness. Trading for a living is madness. It's a very difficult road. If you're struggling trying...
Hey BWiliam,

Great post. While a agree with most of what you say, I also want to add that I did have to start small on the lower time frames. I continued to work and add funds from jobs and any profits that I made. As time went on and I got older and more confidant in my trading I moved up in time frame. It took me 10 years of grinding, working, saving and trading to get to the point that I was confident to let go of the working world. For some it could be faster, for some never.

It is a grind. It will take time. The best advice I can give is be humble. Accept that you can not control the market. Accept you do not know anything. Grab our chunks as price goes up and grab our chunks as price comes down. Trading is not as complicated as some on this forum like to pretend it is. It is nice to sound like you know stuff but the truth is the market is random because people are random. People trade the markets. In the end, trade how ever you feel comfortable. As long as you make money you are trading correctly.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
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