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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #12,761
  • Jul 13, 2021 8:16am Jul 13, 2021 8:16am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, possible short setups. {image}
GBPUSD 1.39 short trade (2nd attempt). Levels to watch are 1.38 and 1.3750. Possible short setup @ 1.3850 (not shown on the chart).
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  • #12,762
  • Jul 13, 2021 8:28am Jul 13, 2021 8:28am
I missed this very nice confluence setup on AUDUSD (0.75 RN + Fib 50), posting this for educational purposes. Possible long setup @ 0.74 (posted the chart before).
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  • #12,763
  • Jul 13, 2021 8:50am Jul 13, 2021 8:50am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD 1.39 short trade (2nd attempt). Levels to watch are 1.38 and 1.3750. Possible short setup @ 1.3850 (not shown on the chart). {image}
taking long for GU, Confluence Fib. 61.8 and RN 1.38.
my entry is not exact @ RN because i need some confirmation, as we know its catching the knife setup.
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  • #12,764
  • Jul 13, 2021 8:53am Jul 13, 2021 8:53am
USDCHF, Shorting
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  • #12,765
  • Jul 13, 2021 10:34am Jul 13, 2021 10:34am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote}. Possible short setup @ 1.3850 (not shown on the chart). {image}
roger copy that captain
  • #12,766
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:18pm Jul 13, 2021 12:18pm
Quoting meugampong
{quote} roger copy that captain
These simple setups provide quick intraday trades. The key is first identify the confluence level and then remain patient.



Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD 1.39 short trade (2nd attempt). Levels to watch are 1.38 and 1.3750. Possible short setup @ 1.3850 (not shown on the chart). {image}
GBPUSD 1.3850 short trade.
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  • #12,767
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:31pm Jul 13, 2021 12:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} These simple setups provide quick intraday trades. The key is first identify the confluence level and then remain patient. {quote} GBPUSD 1.3850 short trade. {image}
yess sir.. i know you using m15 as intraday, so you can detect fast change of trend. me i using h4 as posiible setup that why i took long and get a fast pips also.. and close all my trade ..

the most accurate of change direction is at your TF as intraday. setup.. now its confirm.
  • #12,768
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:40pm Jul 13, 2021 12:40pm
Quoting meugampong
{quote} yess sir.. i know you using m15 as intraday, so you can detect fast change of trend. me i using h4 as posiible setup that why i took long and get a fast pips also.. and close all my trade .. the most accurate of change direction is at your TF as intraday. setup.. now its confirm.
Good job on going long GU 1.38. I was looking at that level as well. Yes, M15 is good for intraday setups. Another example is AUDUSD 0.7475 (QN + Fib 61 + S turned R), a simple high probability trade.
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  • #12,769
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:44pm Jul 13, 2021 12:44pm
Quoting meugampong
{quote} yess sir.. i know you using m15 as intraday, so you can detect fast change of trend. me i using h4 as posiible setup that why i took long and get a fast pips also.. and close all my trade .. the most accurate of change direction is at your TF as intraday. setup.. now its confirm.
by the way sir.. i still believe GU want to upward.
this move down maybe price looking for support H1. i will focus for PA at 1.38 for long setup if any,
even 1.39 making double top. its still HH in my eyes..every pips counted for structure.
let see how it play tomorrow.. if break down or i dont get long setup, let it be so i will wait for pullback for downtrend continuation.
  • #12,770
  • Jul 13, 2021 12:53pm Jul 13, 2021 12:53pm
EG, level to watch.. look like will provide same setup like EU you take last week sir.. will see..
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  • #12,771
  • Edited 4:20pm Jul 13, 2021 4:07pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting meugampong
{quote} by the way sir.. i still believe GU want to upward. this move down maybe price looking for support H1. i will focus for PA at 1.38 for long setup if any, even 1.39 making double top. its still HH in my eyes..every pips counted for structure. let see how it play tomorrow.. if break down or i dont get long setup, let it be so i will wait for pullback for downtrend continuation.
When we talk about the trend, we also need to mention what TF we are looking at. Looking at D1, this is what I consider the current trend cycle on GBPUSD. Basically, we are either in a new downtrend or in a corrective wave. The bias is bearish below 1.39. If we get a clear break above 1.39, that will indicate this structure is indeed a corrective wave.
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  • #12,772
  • Jul 13, 2021 7:00pm Jul 13, 2021 7:00pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} When we talk about the trend, we also need to mention what TF we are looking at. Looking at D1, this is what I consider the current trend cycle on GBPUSD. Basically, we are either in a new downtrend or in a corrective wave. The bias is bearish below 1.39. If we get a clear break above 1.39, that will indicate this structure is indeed a corrective wave. {image} {image}
Hi Shahab

Hope you and family are well and blessed.

Would you see the correlation with dollar for the direction, as it has a hidden (continuation) divergence on H4 also on dollar and it may be bullish, and correlation rest may be bearish adding the fundamental that exiting from Afghanistan is a positive sign as amount spent on war will be spent on the Nationals.

Regards
Bilal
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #12,773
  • Edited 10:07pm Jul 13, 2021 9:29pm | Edited 10:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} When we talk about the trend, we also need to mention what TF we are looking at. Looking at D1, this is what I consider the current trend cycle on GBPUSD. Basically, we are either in a new downtrend or in a corrective wave. The bias is bearish below 1.39. If we get a clear break above 1.39, that will indicate this structure is indeed a corrective wave. {image} {image}
agree 100% sir.. 1.39 is important key level to move up if break for corrective move GU (Looking for LH for downtrend clear bias)
and D1 trend is like you said, bias for downtrend not really clear, because there is a new High at D1.


meanwhile.. i'm entry long for AU and NU before news release.
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  • #12,774
  • Edited 10:00pm Jul 13, 2021 9:44pm | Edited 10:00pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD long trade. Levels to watch. {image}
Quoting meugampong
EG, level to watch.. look like will provide same setup like EU you take last week sir.. will see.. {image}


my master Shahab setup for EU last week classsssssic !!!!

he know key level support for eu @.1.17 will tested.

there is always a new lesson for me from you sir.. every setup you take is magic.
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  • #12,775
  • Jul 14, 2021 7:32am Jul 14, 2021 7:32am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} {quote} my master Shahab setup for EU last week classsssssic !!!! he know key level support for eu @.1.17 will tested. there is always a new lesson for me from you sir.. every setup you take is magic. {image}
Yes, FB to RN or QN is a very easy setup to use. Here we have a FB to 1.1775 (QN) on EURUSD. For intraday setup, we will look at the PA at 1.1825 for a possible short setup.

Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD {image}
The demand zone was identified on D1.
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  • #12,776
  • Jul 14, 2021 7:50am Jul 14, 2021 7:50am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Shahab Hope you and family are well and blessed. Would you see the correlation with dollar for the direction, as it has a hidden (continuation) divergence on H4 also on dollar and it may be bullish, and correlation rest may be bearish adding the fundamental that exiting from Afghanistan is a positive sign as amount spent on war will be spent on the Nationals. Regards Bilal {image}
Thanks bilal1947. I do look at the correlations. But I always suggest trading each chart based on its own PA. GU can sometimes do its own thing. Regarding EU, this is my interpretation of the current trend cycle. Looking at D1, the bias is bearish against 1.1875/1.19. But there is a chance we have a low in place at 1.1775 considering the bullish divergence. A clear break above 1.1875/1.19 will confirm that.
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  • #12,777
  • Jul 14, 2021 7:57am Jul 14, 2021 7:57am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, FB to RN or QN is a very easy setup to use. Here we have a FB to 1.1775 (QN) on EURUSD. For intraday setup, we will look at the PA at 1.1825 for a possible short setup. {quote} The demand zone was identified on D1. {image}
EU i put my stop order, when price reach @QN i'm still in bed.. lol.
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  • #12,778
  • Jul 14, 2021 8:02am Jul 14, 2021 8:02am
USDCHF 0.92 short trade.
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  • #12,779
  • Jul 14, 2021 8:03am Jul 14, 2021 8:03am
UCAD, Fb everywhere for USD Pair.
Level To Watch
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  • #12,780
  • Jul 14, 2021 9:20am Jul 14, 2021 9:20am
Quoting meugampong
UCAD, Fb everywhere for USD Pair. Level To Watch {image}
Good catch M! We had another FB @ 1.2450. USDCAD 1.2450 long trade (confluence of 1.2450+ Fib 50+ S). I'll keep an eye on 1.25 and 1.2550.
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