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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #1,781
  • Jul 10, 2021 9:12pm Jul 10, 2021 9:12pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} About the best way, imo the best way to everyone of us is the one we individually know best, done it day in day out. Best way is a private thing. Best way is based on the deepest core of our belief how this market work. As an example the deepest core of my belief is that there are some price moves that goes against the master algo math intent. Such moves create invalid under/over valuation where the market will eventually correct itself. I exploit such moves to make entry with low risk then ride out the current market sentiment. If you look...
Hey BW,

I appreciate the way you speak about the market and this master algo theory. It boarders on religious. Which is great. Your beliefs lead you to profits. Amazing. So many different ways to trade the same markets. My story in Forex is over 20 years old but in a nutshell there isn't much I have not tried. I came to the conclusion that, for myself, indicators are not only a crutch, but a waste of time. Many traders put a lot faith in indicators.

The only thing on my chart is a SMA 50 and a SMA 200. Why? Because they are psychological indicators on the daily charts. They do not effect my trading unless price is hovering around them. I do not use them to trade more gauge what BIG MONEY is doing.

Now I have mostly left the Spot Market for the Futures market. More so to trade commodities and the like. Despite everything telling me not to , I continue to enjoy chatting with other traders. It is hard to fund humble traders who are open to understanding that they are not always right. That we can both be right. That do not have an ego. The thing is the type of person who can actually be successful at trading must be crazy, confident, defiant and head strong. Not exactly humble lol. I do try my best. I try to not get into arguments with people. I try to pass knowledge. I am always learning both about me and the market.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,782
  • Jul 10, 2021 9:15pm Jul 10, 2021 9:15pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey joyny, I agree one should always back test, but one can not have faith that any system or strategy will work even if you do well back testing. Only live forward testing can show any real data. Back testing is easily prone to curve fitting and building false confidence. You can not back test a traders angst, you can not build confidence in pulling the trigger. All back testing tells you is this method has worked IF the individual trader can execute as perfectly while not knowing what is going to happen in the future. Hind sight is always...
Why backtest, if you can not have faith that that system or strategy you are trading will work? It seems like you believe in live forward testing.

My thought here is backtesting is another energy wasting task that people get consumed with.

Hopefully this wont sidetrack the thread too much, anyone watching the POIRIER vs McGREGOR 3 tonight?
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #1,783
  • Jul 10, 2021 9:20pm Jul 10, 2021 9:20pm
Out of topic, congrats to Argentina winning the Copa America.

England to win the Euros tomorrow morning.
Know what you trade
  • #1,784
  • Jul 10, 2021 9:23pm Jul 10, 2021 9:23pm
Newbie here, been day trading for a little bit but want to learn more. I've been reading this thread and other ones for a bit and if I share what I do maybe I can learn more about Order blocks and liquidity providers, maybe. There's heaps to know in day trading.

Anyways here's my chart and view. Maybe others can help me discuss some points on this.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my example 1.png Size: 26 KB


Thanks in advance for any help. Arnold.
I believe simple is best
  • #1,785
  • Jul 10, 2021 9:49pm Jul 10, 2021 9:49pm
Quoting HTG
{quote} Ric - Not sure why you would get any backlash on that. Money management is very important and its a great call out. I think the reason its lacking is because thats they way most are led. Meaning the never get to that point. Most are stuck trying to find out what kind of trader they are or what kind of strategy or edge they can find or whats the next indicator they can throw on a chart. The first thing you see when you come to this thread is a poll. My unpopular opinion on that is, it does not matter, maybe we can add some context to that...
Hey HTG,

The line of thought in your post is great. Also true. People want the truth but can not handle it. A lot of people are weak minded in general, never mind in trading.

I MOSTLY left Spot Forex trading. I still trade it just in less of a capacity than before. The number one reason I trade futures is tax treatment. Profits are taxed significantly less on the Federal level as opposed to Spot Forex. With spot, the tax is very complicated. It also is not clear under the IRS how to treat Spot profits. Generally it is considered regular income. With a hard left Democrat in office currently in United States, increase in taxes is always the main way that party chooses to raise funds.

I also started trading commodities like Crude, Copper & Soybean. In the USA, we cant do that with a Forex broker. Further more, the ongoing costs of holding FX Spot trades is getting stupid. Those costs do not apply in Futures.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,786
  • Jul 10, 2021 9:54pm Jul 10, 2021 9:54pm
Quoting HTG
{quote} Why backtest, if you can not have faith that that system or strategy you are trading will work? It seems like you believe in live forward testing. My thought here is backtesting is another energy wasting task that people get consumed with. Hopefully this wont sidetrack the thread too much, anyone watching the POIRIER vs McGREGOR 3 tonight?
Hey HTC,

My point was it is only good to test if a theory is viable. Trading live is the only real way to fully test if the theory will pan out. However, before you go wasting real cash on a untested theory, back test using the best data you can afford or get your hands on to test it out in history. Then demo trade for a bit to get the kinks out. THEN go live and test it for real. If it works, grow slow and steady.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,787
  • Edited 1:38am Jul 11, 2021 12:14am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The pic presents how i see last weeks GU market. The failure to break the bottom target creates a undervalued pricing situation. The market unwind itself on Friday, the move from London open till close is larger than the rest of the days. This type of "market failure" moves guided by the master algo gives a clear trading edge. This move is large because it's a move for the week done in the last 12 hours of the week. There are many such similar smaller moves within the trading day. They give the intraday swing moves which can be seen on the...
Hi BWilliam,
My value interpretation is also almost same like this. I have marked the failure as an undervalued zone (even I will refer it as control point) too. Demarcation zone (balanced zone) is same as yours. And the overvaluation is not much. But just a little bit. Great. So just a question. Will you sell the top or next value target is 1.39500/1.40800? That was interesting read.
Good luck

I understand when you say algo target. That created undervalued price 5 days.
edited
  • #1,788
  • Jul 11, 2021 2:15am Jul 11, 2021 2:15am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Hi BWilliam, My value interpretation is also almost same like this. I have marked the failure as an undervalued zone (even I will refer it as control point) too. Demarcation zone (balanced zone) is same as yours. And the overvaluation is not much. But just a little bit. Great. So just a question. Will you sell the top or next value target is 1.39500/1.40800? That was interesting read. Good luck I understand when you say algo target. That created undervalued price 5 days. edited
Hi Ihlas, this pic answer your question. Follow what the master algo say.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: huh4.PNG Size: 49 KB
Know what you trade
  • #1,789
  • Edited 3:50am Jul 11, 2021 3:07am | Edited 3:50am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Ihlas, this pic answer your question. Follow what the master algo say. {image}
Hi BWilliam,
First of all thanks for your time. I can clearly see why it's demarcation zone. Thanks.
Question again Do you think that demarcation zone should be updated every single time when it hits that zone? I update the demarcation zone when it hits. It doesn't carry any value after hit
Are channels, MTF volume and Force arrow your coded indicators or can I find them on the Internet?
Thanks again
  • #1,790
  • Jul 11, 2021 3:29am Jul 11, 2021 3:29am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Yes perhaps it is the anger he vent it out when many started saying he copied wyckoff. That's why i mention i didn't agree here to Michael as well.
Saying Michael copied Wyckoff is just plain ignorance.

Michael refers to Wyckoff as one among the authors that inspired him on the market maker series. But also Larry Williams and others quite obvious when you see him talking about turtles and Wolfe waves. He even released a few videos about recommended readings and he always credits others if he explains something that is not his own creation.

But Wyckoff theories are not what Michael teaches at all.

The funniest thing is that 35% of his teachings are free and public on his YouTube channel and if one says that is Wyckoff, it means ignoring both Wyckoff and Michael styles.
  • #1,791
  • Jul 11, 2021 4:20am Jul 11, 2021 4:20am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Ihlas, this pic answer your question. Follow what the master algo say. {image}
Hey BWilliams

That Demarcation zone just looks like GeorgeAUS's - Herd Validation Zone to me.

It works very well for him and I still have know idea to this day why George went rogue on Elliott Waves.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,792
  • Jul 11, 2021 4:51am Jul 11, 2021 4:51am
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Hi BWilliam, First of all thanks for your time. I can clearly see why it's demarcation zone. Thanks. Question again Do you think that demarcation zone should be updated every single time when it hits that zone? I update the demarcation zone when it hits. It doesn't carry any value after hit Are channels, MTF volume and Force arrow your coded indicators or can I find them on the Internet? Thanks again
I update the demarcation zone when the master algo paint a new structure.

I created those indicators.

Quoting RickM
{quote} Hey BWilliams That Demarcation zone just looks like GeorgeAUS's - Herd Validation Zone to me. It works very well for him and I still have know idea to this day why George went rogue on Elliott Waves. Cheers
Imo the last piece to his algo idea is volume, that's the missing link. Not EW. Volume at George's targets is a solid combination that show up the trading edge. You use the band, I use the channel to measure the distance.
Know what you trade
  • #1,793
  • Edited 5:12am Jul 11, 2021 4:56am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Yes perhaps it is the anger he vent it out when many started saying he copied wyckoff. That's why i mention i didn't agree here to Michael as well.
He is kind of irritating because he knows nothing about the Wyckoff (judging from his examples). He is like someone who opposes the Word Of God and selectively extracts from the Bible.

In one of his recent videos, "If I had to restart again as a trader", he says Wyckoff doesn't talk about the Equal Highs (or Lows) and he used an example on the attached image. In fact Wyckoff does talk about it but he doesn't use the same terminology that ICT is using. See on the image you firstly see the Sign of Weakness then after you see the widening of the bullish candles followed by the narrowing (Phase B - giving retailers the sense of strong resistance) and the upthrust (Phase C - activating breakout traders orders and taking out the buy stops). That is in the Wyckoff literature (not written in ICT terminology).

One of the patterns he recommends is nothing but a Sign of Strength and the Last Point of Support (jumping across the Creek), he calls it OTE, in a re-accumulation. Edit: A Supply and Demand trader could have easily spotted that one as a Rally-Base-Rally opportunity for a buy (Demand Zone).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h1 (2021-07-11).png Size: 91 KB
  • #1,794
  • Jul 11, 2021 4:59am Jul 11, 2021 4:59am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I update the demarcation zone when the master algo paint a new structure. I created those indicators. {quote} Imo the last piece to his algo idea is volume, that's the missing link. Not EW.
Thank you BWilliam. I appreciate. I do it manually. BTW Great indicators.
Good luck.
  • #1,795
  • Jul 11, 2021 5:00am Jul 11, 2021 5:00am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey HTC, My point was it is only good to test if a theory is viable. Trading live is the only real way to fully test if the theory will pan out. However, before you go wasting real cash on a untested theory, back test using the best data you can afford or get your hands on to test it out in history. Then demo trade for a bit to get the kinks out. THEN go live and test it for real. If it works, grow slow and steady. - Ric
With m1 data you can test anything on H1 candles and higher.

With tick data you can test anything.

No difference to live. You can add spread artificially.
  • #1,796
  • Edited 6:28am Jul 11, 2021 6:17am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I update the demarcation zone when the master algo paint a new structure. I created those indicators. {quote} Imo the last piece to his algo idea is volume, that's the missing link. Not EW. Volume at George's targets is a solid combination that show up the trading edge. You use the band, I use the channel to measure the distance.
Hi BWilliams

One day on a voice chat with George on Skype in May last year, I raised that point with him. I talked about how volume could just be that "special sauce".
But you know George, he won't discuss / debate any other addition to his strategy.
Therefore I was on my own.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,797
  • Jul 11, 2021 6:50am Jul 11, 2021 6:50am
Some people can make a living from playing poker. That doesn't mean 99% or even 99.9% of people in general can.

Some people can win the lottery. That doesn't mean the likelihood of YOU winning the lottery is higher than one in ten million.
  • #1,798
  • Jul 11, 2021 7:39am Jul 11, 2021 7:39am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} He is kind of irritating because he knows nothing about the Wyckoff (judging from his examples). He is like someone who opposes the Word Of God and selectively extracts from the Bible. In one of his recent videos, "If I had to restart again as a trader", he says Wyckoff doesn't talk about the Equal Highs (or Lows) and he used an example on the attached image. In fact Wyckoff does talk about it but he doesn't use the same terminology that ICT is using. See on the image you firstly see the Sign of Weakness then after you see the widening of...
he is very smart he must be knowing wyckoff more than us, trust me.

if he opposes the word of God it is between him and God, but if he mistreat God's people for sure God will not forgive him.

I dont understand wyckoff terms and schematics even vsa, but the bottom line is what is more understandable to us. Perhaps to many it may be wyckoff to a few ict, whatever is more suitable to one only that is what matters. i dont worship any of them but i learn from everyone, Even here at FF some tell me what not to do that they are doing i.e, leg pulling, making fun, and to follow others who guides me and others and i like to follow their footsteps.

i wish you good luck and may Gods blessings be with you in whatever you do.
regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,799
  • Jul 11, 2021 8:35am Jul 11, 2021 8:35am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} he is very smart he must be knowing wyckoff more than us, trust me. if he opposes the word of God it is between him and God, but if he mistreat God's people for sure God will not forgive him. I dont understand wyckoff terms and schematics even vsa, but the bottom line is what is more understandable to us. Perhaps to many it may be wyckoff to a few ict, whatever is more suitable to one only that is what matters. i dont worship any of them but i learn from everyone, Even here at FF some tell me what not to do that they are doing i.e,...
Hi bilal
Wyckoff Methodology is not hard at all, you can learn Wyckoff Methodology from "The Wyckoff Methodology in Depth" book.
Recently I have completed this book. I quite like the book.
You will develop a different mind set learning about Wyckoff Methodology.

ICT is a course seller, That's all I will say about ICT.
Best of luck
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #1,800
  • Jul 11, 2021 9:39am Jul 11, 2021 9:39am
Quoting hasib
{quote} Hi bilal Wyckoff Methodology is not hard at all, you can learn Wyckoff Methodology from "The Wyckoff Methodology in Depth" book. Recently I have completed this book. I quite like the book. You will develop a different mind set learning about Wyckoff Methodology. ICT is a course seller, That's all I will say about ICT. Best of luck
My friend, you dont know ICT yet, but i know a bit of wyckoff
Follow what you find easy and more relates to you.
"Exchange of hands"
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