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  • #1,761
  • Jul 10, 2021 7:05am Jul 10, 2021 7:05am
i feel the edge is merging the price concepts and volume as further confirmations to it, once volume comes in yet price goes beyond that point to do the algo thing so merging both is a good idea to me. it doesn't matter if price attracts volume or volume moves the price.
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,762
  • Jul 10, 2021 9:53am Jul 10, 2021 9:53am
Quoting bilal1947
i feel the edge is merging the price concepts and volume as further confirmations to it, once volume comes in yet price goes beyond that point to do the algo thing so merging both is a good idea to me. it doesn't matter if price attracts volume or volume moves the price. {image}
" Volume is the major indicator for the professional trader.

You have to ask yourself why the members of the self-regulated Exchanges around the world like to keep true volume information away from you as far as possible. The reason is because they know how important it is in analysing a market!

The significance and importance of volume appears little understood by most non-professional traders. Perhaps this is because there is very little information and limited teaching available on this vital part of technical analysis. To use a chart without volume data is similar to buying an automobile without a gasoline tank."

~ The late Tom Williams (The Undeclared Secrets That Drive The Stock Market & Master the Markets books)
  • #1,763
  • Jul 10, 2021 11:18am Jul 10, 2021 11:18am
https://adamhgrimes.com/reader-question-volume/
on a postive roll...
  • #1,764
  • Jul 10, 2021 11:54am Jul 10, 2021 11:54am
Quoting Rmg
https://adamhgrimes.com/reader-question-volume/
Good source. Agree on that. Fluctuations all around no matter what to use for entry/exit.
  • #1,765
  • Jul 10, 2021 11:55am Jul 10, 2021 11:55am
Quoting Rmg
https://adamhgrimes.com/reader-question-volume/
It seems he commented about an area that he knows less about. Josh raised some valid points.
  • #1,766
  • Edited 2:14pm Jul 10, 2021 1:29pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting mixedbags
2 trades made earlier based off FIBO, would like to see how's the volume look like {image}
The volume looks like nothing (no activity at all)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/fx/...en.quotes.html
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Air force
  • #1,767
  • Edited 4:10pm Jul 10, 2021 2:05pm | Edited 4:10pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} " Volume is the major indicator for the professional trader. You have to ask yourself why the members of the self-regulated Exchanges around the world like to keep true volume information away from you as far as possible. The reason is because they know how important it is in analysing a market! The significance and importance of volume appears little understood by most non-professional traders. Perhaps this is because there is very little information and limited teaching available on this vital part of technical analysis. To use a chart...
Without disrespect to everyone, that is tom williams view, and to me it not true at all after we have been introduced to ICT, yet we can utilize volume till we grow further.

For funs sake, attaching two screenshots of Michael chat where he say volume is retails stuff and wyckoff too, and in a video he spoke if wyckoff would alive he would be his student, i also not agree to him as well.

Again no disrepect to anyone we can use volume and our price action stuff we have learnt so far
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,768
  • Jul 10, 2021 4:14pm Jul 10, 2021 4:14pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Without disrespect to any one, that is tom williams view, and to me it not true at all after we have been introduced to ICT, yet we can utilize volume till we grow further. For funs sake, attaching two screenshots of Michael chat where he say volume is retails stuff and wyckoff too, and in a video he spoke if wyckoff would alive he would be his student, i also not agree to him as well. Again no disrepect to anyone we can use volume and our price action stuff we have learnt so far {image} {image}
Well that shows the arrogance of Michael (the "self-proclaimed god" of the markets). Wyckoff didn't have access to computer data back in his days - he had to work with manual records. Comparing himself to Wyckoff is just madness.
  • #1,769
  • Jul 10, 2021 4:36pm Jul 10, 2021 4:36pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} Well that shows the arrogance of Michael (the "self-proclaimed god" of the markets). Wyckoff didn't have access to computer data back in his days - he had to work with manual records. Comparing himself to Wyckoff is just madness.
Can't really compare the two.
One was from a 'more civilised age' and the other trades today.
  • #1,770
  • Jul 10, 2021 4:47pm Jul 10, 2021 4:47pm
The reason true volume is hidden from retail traders is they don’t want you to know the truth.

To change direction of the market, you only need on average the equivalent of 8 average M1 bars in volume.to flip the dominance to buyers to sellers.
Therefore the realisation that the market contains very little real liquidity most of the time should lead retail traders to the correct realisation.

Hidden thin liquidity enables big players to move the market in the direction of their choice with far less expenditure of their equity.
That is why 30-40% of liquidity is withdrawn from the market before it can ever be executed.
It never really existed.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,771
  • Jul 10, 2021 5:01pm Jul 10, 2021 5:01pm
Quoting RickM
The reason true volume is hidden from retail traders is they don’t want you to know the truth. To change direction of the market, you only need on average the equivalent of 8 average M1 bars in volume.to flip the dominance to buyers to sellers. Therefore the realisation that the market contains very little real liquidity most of the time should lead retail traders to the correct realisation. Hidden thin liquidity enables big players to move the market in the direction of their choice with far less expenditure of their equity. That is why 30-40%...

No different Rick to trading price movement on the gee gee's before the 'off'.... punter drops in money, price moves, then he withdraws as other punters jump on, leaving him with a tidy profit on bets elsewhere on the board.
"Fake' market.
  • #1,772
  • Jul 10, 2021 5:48pm Jul 10, 2021 5:48pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} I have 11 EA’s still running on several pairs. Would you be so kind to borrow me your hammer so I can put myself out of my misery. They say the happiest day in a traders life is when they run their EA onto a live chart for the first time, then shut it down and burn their Algorithm files in the biggest bonfire they can find. A hammer however should do the job nicely.
as we all know ea,s are reconstituted every few years with a new name and new marketing campaign people easy fooled and parted from their money
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #1,773
  • Jul 10, 2021 5:56pm Jul 10, 2021 5:56pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi riclater The beauty of day trading is at the end of the trading day, you are flat. No open positions that big players can attempt to hunt down your stop loss while you sleep. The line that rich people make money while you sleep doesn’t run true with professional day traders. I can’t stomach the fear of opening up my trading platform over night to find I loss money while I slept. I can stomach sleeping well after a profitable days trading with pips in the bank and my equity SAFE. Cheers
very true in my early days i did exactly that
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #1,774
  • Jul 10, 2021 7:08pm Jul 10, 2021 7:08pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi riclater, it works the same on all timeframes. By this I mean the math is the same. Buy a rising market, sell a falling market. It depends on what tf suit your personal schedule and psychologically the trader like the "pace" of the trade. 50 scalping trades a day is a lot of hectic trading to do. A slower once a week trade may suit other folks. {image}
Hey BW,

Sounds like you are saying the trend is your friend. That is an old adage that holds up well. I agree the trading mechanisms are generally the same if you scalp or trade longer term. There are a few tangible differences in trading short term vs longer term. For example overall fees, spreads and commissions which can effect the over all return. In the scalping example you mentioned, 50 scalping trades in FX will generally set you back about 50 pips of value. Average scalp is about 5 pips meaning you need to net 6 to get 5. Or in the example 300 to get 250.

i am not saying its wrong or right. It just is a fact that it is more expensive overall to generate profits on short term than it is longer term. All things being equal. 50 trades to generate 250 pips vs 50 trades to generate 2500. As you said, it is up to the psychology of the individual trader. RickM says he can not sleep at night with risk on. That is him. The trading beliefs you carry tell you a different story.

My trading is basically PA, momentum with a careful eye on fundamentals to swing trade on Daily charts or H4 depending on the instruments I trade. I have all but left Retail Forex and am trading futures but still have bit in Spot FX. I find that just as important a aspect of trading is money management, I await the backlash but I find it to be lacking in most cases. When you visit the trading systems section of this site, you would be hard pressed to find anyone actually talking about detailed money management. All i see is get in here and out here. It is laughable.

In the end I am happy to hear that folks are profiting, what I don't like is people telling others the best way to do something. That is a false narrative. It is the best way for that person, not everyone. Learn and share to find the best way for you. It is OK to follow others and try different things, that is how i learned. In the end, after many many failures, you can find what works best for you.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,775
  • Jul 10, 2021 7:18pm Jul 10, 2021 7:18pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} And here we come to real ugly truth about day trading.. If day traders would implement their trading strategy in an EA and backtest some 10 years past... Most of who trade 1M or 5M or even 1H charts would see they wipe out entire accounts. Without proper backtesting day traders can live in illusion that their "structure" is safe. And then those who code an EA, backtest it and hope that 1 particular setup they found will profit in future... Thats wrong using of backteting too.. Learn about fluctuations and adjust your approach accordingly....
Hey joyny,

I agree one should always back test, but one can not have faith that any system or strategy will work even if you do well back testing. Only live forward testing can show any real data. Back testing is easily prone to curve fitting and building false confidence. You can not back test a traders angst, you can not build confidence in pulling the trigger. All back testing tells you is this method has worked IF the individual trader can execute as perfectly while not knowing what is going to happen in the future. Hind sight is always 20/20.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,776
  • Jul 10, 2021 7:21pm Jul 10, 2021 7:21pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Sorry, we don't have AUDJPY data, only Majors, gold, silver, btc, us500 and so on. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/pro...tAsc&sortField
Hey ryuryu,

A fellow Futures trader, nice. I don't see many on here.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,777
  • Edited 8:17pm Jul 10, 2021 7:55pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey BW, Sounds like you are saying the trend is your friend. That is an old adage that holds up well. I agree the trading mechanisms are generally the same if you scalp or trade longer term. There are a few tangible differences in trading short term vs longer term. For example overall fees, spreads and commissions which can effect the over all return. In the scalping example you mentioned, 50 scalping trades in FX will generally set you back about 50 pips of value. Average scalp is about 5 pips meaning you need to net 6 to get 5. Or in the...
About the best way, imo the best way to everyone of us is the one we individually know best, done it day in day out. Best way is a private thing. Best way is based on the deepest core of our belief how this market work.

As an example the deepest core of my belief is that there are some price moves that goes against the master algo math intent. Such moves create invalid under/over valuation where the market will eventually correct itself. I exploit such moves to make entry with low risk then ride out the current market sentiment. If you look at the suggested alerts marked on the charts I posted, they are all showing this type of temporary against the current market sentiment moves. This is where the trading edge lie on the chart, to me.

I am sure you and everyone of us have this core belief. It's not the nice looking indicators, volume data, price action or candle patterns or whatever used.

I am not a indicator trader. The tools or indicator I use help to give me a perspective about the current market. I use another set of indicators/tools to help in pinpointing my entry on m1 chart. I trade base on my core beliefs both in analysing the market and the actual entry itself.

On this forum there's very little discussion about the traders core belief why he/she thinks the future market is rising or dropping. Most of the discussion is centered on the tools/indicators. IMHO even if I hand over the exact indicators I use another trader will find a millions problems with it. Reason being they don't have the same exact understanding how I use the indicator/tool. (You'll be surprise I don't use the indicators in the "obvious" way. Long story to tell for another time.) They don't posses the same core belief.

Core belief discussion dwells on the detail inner workings of the market. The key point is why the trader thinks the market will rise or fall at his entry zone. Why the trader thinks this point gives a trading edge. It'll be interesting to read about what other traders think in detail and their core belief if they are willing to share on a forum.

About your reference to the trend, we first have to define what a trend means. Which makes the subject difficult. I don't make reference to the trend. My core belief is define as what the master algo intent is for the current market. And based on this algo the current market participants sentiment. I execute trade when both are clear in today's market and entry made when price move in the opposite direction creating temporary over/under valuation. I don't make ad hoc discretionary analysis or decision. I define my core belief in math, algo math. The discretionary content in live market is minimal.

To the rest, I like to hear your story about this Forex market.
Know what you trade
  • #1,778
  • Edited 8:21pm Jul 10, 2021 8:07pm | Edited 8:21pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} Well that shows the arrogance of Michael (the "self-proclaimed god" of the markets). Wyckoff didn't have access to computer data back in his days - he had to work with manual records. Comparing himself to Wyckoff is just madness.
Yes perhaps it is the anger he vent it out when many started saying he copied wyckoff. That's why i mention i didn't agree here to Michael as well.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,779
  • Edited 9:09pm Jul 10, 2021 8:37pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} About the best way, imo the best way to everyone of us is the one we individually know best, done it day in day out. Best way is a private thing. Best way is based on the deepest core of our belief how this market work. As an example the deepest core of my belief is that there are some price moves that goes against the master algo math intent. Such moves create invalid under/over valuation where the market will eventually correct itself. I exploit such moves to make entry with low risk then ride out the current market sentiment. If you look...
The pic presents how i see last weeks GU market. The failure to break the bottom target creates a undervalued pricing situation. The market unwind itself on Friday, the move from London open till close is larger than the rest of the days.

This type of "market failure" moves guided by the master algo gives a clear trading edge. This move is large because it's a move for the week done in the last 12 hours of the week. There are many such similar smaller moves within the trading day. They give the intraday swing moves which can be seen on the chart. This is the clear trading edge to exploit.
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Know what you trade
  • #1,780
  • Jul 10, 2021 9:06pm Jul 10, 2021 9:06pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey BW, Sounds like you are saying the trend is your friend. That is an old adage that holds up well. I agree the trading mechanisms are generally the same if you scalp or trade longer term. There are a few tangible differences in trading short term vs longer term. For example overall fees, spreads and commissions which can effect the over all return. In the scalping example you mentioned, 50 scalping trades in FX will generally set you back about 50 pips of value. Average scalp is about 5 pips meaning you need to net 6 to get 5. Or in the...
Ric - Not sure why you would get any backlash on that. Money management is very important and its a great call out. I think the reason its lacking is because thats they way most are led. Meaning the never get to that point. Most are stuck trying to find out what kind of trader they are or what kind of strategy or edge they can find or whats the next indicator they can throw on a chart. The first thing you see when you come to this thread is a poll. My unpopular opinion on that is, it does not matter, maybe we can add some context to that later, bottom line is, We make money , regardless of how you want to classify yourself, I truly think people are stuck and that is why its lacking for most. In this business you need to be mentally strong and most are not, most have excuse after excuse and from what I see its easy to identify the weak or the failed traders that really want others to fail instead of being successful. Its hard to help those until they have the right mindset, which rarely happens. Failed traders, fail traders. Successful traders make traders successful. Along the same lines of, Hurt People Hurt People, Happy People Make People Happy.

Few brutal truths of trading:

It takes focus
It takes a winning mentality
It takes a patience
It takes grit
It takes fortitude
It takes guts
It take a lot of time
It...well I could list many more
(Notice All of these truths can be applied to winning in life and business and in my opinion will help one become successful)

Ill add one more brutal truth, MINDSET, look if you want to win, win at both life and business. Get mentally strong and get your mind right, develop a champions mindset, cultivate that mindset and be someone who wins consistently. Your trading will thrive.

Ric, why did you leave the largest financial market in the world, to trade futures? No right or wrong answer here, just sparking conversation.
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
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