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  • #135,441
  • Jun 23, 2021 7:58am Jun 23, 2021 7:58am
My bias is 80/20 it goes up no matter what. Either spike or slo-mo steps.
  • #135,442
  • Edited 8:15am Jun 23, 2021 7:59am | Edited 8:15am
In 45 minutes (9:40 am EST) the US PMI "should" provide some PA but there are two (2) scenario's that are in play.

1. PMI numbers are better than expected - this increases the inflation trade/fear. Result? Dollar soars and EU tanks

2. PMI numbers are terrible - this increases the stimulus talk and puts the inflation to rest until the housing details. In this scenario dollar falls and EU rises.

Of the 2 above scenarios I think that #1 is more likely and I have changed my daily bias to shorting at 1.1950-60

EDIT: BTW there is a seasonal trade in the SPY that over the past 20 years it has "dipped" from June 25 - July 4th afterwhich it rebounds. I'm currently playing the SPY & QQQ shorts and I am prepared for the EU correlation of a risk-off event in the coming 10 days.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #135,443
  • Jun 23, 2021 8:16am Jun 23, 2021 8:16am
Quoting fxsport
In 45 minutes (9:40 am EST) the US PMI "should" provide some PA but there are two (2) scenario's that are in play. 1. PMI numbers are better than expected - this increases the inflation trade/fear. Result? Dollar soars and EU tanks 2. PMI numbers are terrible - this increases the stimulus talk and puts the inflation to rest until the housing details. In this scenario dollar falls and EU rises. Of the 2 above scenarios I think that #1 is more likely and I have changed my daily bias to shorting at 1.1950-60 EDIT: BTW there is a seasonal trade in the...
In this condition, I am more confident in the trend, because news is only a tool for campaigning
The Average Discount Everything
  • #135,444
  • Jun 23, 2021 8:17am Jun 23, 2021 8:17am
Quoting yvestrcz
My bias is 80/20 it goes up no matter what. Either spike or slo-mo steps.
What's interesting is this -

Bull markets - last much longer than bear markets, usually short choppy movement
Bear markets - much shorter in duration and moves are usually very violent and quick followed by consolidation.

Let's face it for folks who shorted last Wednesday - they made more in 1 day than longs who held their positions the prior 3 days.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #135,445
  • Jun 23, 2021 8:39am Jun 23, 2021 8:39am
Closed all longs here at 1.1960... Will wait until I see a bearish signal..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #135,446
  • Jun 23, 2021 8:46am Jun 23, 2021 8:46am
Just went short at 1.1966.. (1.19658 to be exact)
Mental stops at least 25 pips or higher..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #135,447
  • Jun 23, 2021 8:56am Jun 23, 2021 8:56am
Quoting Endoephemera
This is scary. The percentage of retails in profit (long) is higher than I've ever seen it. I closed the long and put on a token short. PS. Between Asia and London today it's +11% for me. Not risking to ruin it. It's really tense. They don't know whether to slam it up or down. 16:45 ST Hedged my token short just in time 1.1957 but I'm not longing this. 16:52 ST IMO I't looking for a top from which to reverse sharply. Lots of selling into this retails fed up move today.
What's it at? Or where could I see for myself? Thanks
  • #135,448
  • Jun 23, 2021 8:56am Jun 23, 2021 8:56am
Rough PA with bull and bear in full effect.
  • #135,449
  • Jun 23, 2021 9:01am Jun 23, 2021 9:01am
Let's see if macd divergence on M15 will have an effect or not.. That could support bears.. but it must come quick otherwise bulls will take over again..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #135,450
  • Jun 23, 2021 9:02am Jun 23, 2021 9:02am
Quoting Kyuu
{quote} What's it at? Or where could I see for myself? Thanks
https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio?filter=NZDUSD
  • #135,451
  • Jun 23, 2021 9:05am Jun 23, 2021 9:05am
Swing structure is perfect, good pushes at the right spots.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 69 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #135,452
  • Jun 23, 2021 9:11am Jun 23, 2021 9:11am
Quoting chusma133
{quote} https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio?filter=NZDUSD
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} Check out the retails in the money partying down. https://fxssi.com/tools/dom-snapshots?pair=EURUSD Makes me want to throw up!
Thanks! I thought it was gonna be much worse than it is, but it's cool to see. I'm still long tho
  • #135,453
  • Edited 9:56am Jun 23, 2021 9:32am | Edited 9:56am
can the trend also no longer be trusted at the current price movement ....... then there are no more reliable factors .... whether the trend can no longer be trusted at the current price movement .... then there are no more reliable factors .... hope the FED intervenes to bring prices according to the current down trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: b781d70206ee1cc6f4cc2621ecdfe762.png Size: 21 KB
The Average Discount Everything
  • #135,454
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:02am Jun 23, 2021 10:02am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Just went short at 1.1966.. (1.19658 to be exact) Mental stops at least 25 pips or higher..
Closing order with +20 pips.. Waiting for next opportunity..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #135,455
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:10am Jun 23, 2021 10:10am
@Ata, I started following you over a month ago and can't but wonder how you get so proficient with your analyses that are mostly on point. Kudos
  • #135,456
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:11am Jun 23, 2021 10:11am
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13595980
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 sr II.png Size: 63 KB
  • #135,457
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:18am Jun 23, 2021 10:18am
Quoting Dipson
@Ata, I started following you over a month ago and can't but wonder how you get so proficient with your analyses that are mostly on point. Kudos
Thanks brother.. Years of screen time and sweat, that's all and I still have bad days sometimes.. but can't complain..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #135,458
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:19am Jun 23, 2021 10:19am
I've opened short position at 1.1948. My target 1.1917.
  • #135,459
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:32am Jun 23, 2021 10:32am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Thanks brother.. Years of screen time and sweat, that's all and I still have bad days sometimes.. but can't complain..
The best of the best Trader , teacher and leader
  • #135,460
  • Jun 23, 2021 10:35am Jun 23, 2021 10:35am
Based on H1,
Opening long order here at 1.1945..
Mental stop is watching if any H1 candle closes below 1.1915 or not..
Focus only on what truly matters!
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