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  • #1,281
  • Edited 5:34am Jun 16, 2021 5:19am | Edited 5:34am
Quoting simnz
And use ADR of ticks as the TP or SL.
Tim is trying to check if there is a difference between broker tick volume data and futures volume data. So averaging is not an approach for that task at all. And there is a difference. The lower TF the bigger the difference. So broker tick data can't be used for trading on 1M tf for example. But may be it is good to trade on higher TF, because the difference is not so big and the whole picture remains the same.

Next task is to compare Delta the same way. I think it will be very interesting. The purpose of that is to answer a question: is it possible to trade like RickM trades but using broker tick volume not the futures.

I think it is not possible. Because 69% (and it is max value) correlation in not enough. I think it terms of math it called Not Equal At All.

Personally I'm trying to compare not the whole data blocks (they are not equal), but the entries. The question is: Can I have the same entries using broker tick vilume like I have using futures volumes? And the answer is no. Broker tick volume produce far more entries and can't be used for that purpose. NB I'm talking about 1M TF only.
Observer effect
  • #1,282
  • Jun 16, 2021 5:28am Jun 16, 2021 5:28am
Quoting Winston Reed
.... I'll be retiring soon and trading will continue to be a hobby but one that will add a modest amount to retirement income and one that I will never rely on for a living.
Hi Winston Reed,

I understand what you said and fully buy your point.

That's exactly my same program, going to retire in a few years and I think to trading as an integration to my total income besides something I like to do.

All those who sell courses, indicators, systems and signals make money by selling to stupid people and certainly not by trading.
In all these years I have known only one person who lives by trading, I believe that many know him and he deserves all my respect and is https://www.forexfactory.com/profitfarmer.

Best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #1,283
  • Jun 16, 2021 5:46am Jun 16, 2021 5:46am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Tim is trying to check if there is a difference between broker tick volume data and futures volume data. So averaging is not an approach for that task at all. And there is a difference. The lower TF the bigger the difference. So broker tick data can't be used for trading on 1M tf for example. But may be it is good to trade on higher TF, because the difference is not so big and the whole picture remains the same.
The results of his research also confirms what I have observed when using the tick data for Wyckoff and VSA purposes. I found the tick data to be less reliable for anything less than the hourly timeframe.
  • #1,284
  • Jun 16, 2021 5:51am Jun 16, 2021 5:51am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} The results of his research also confirms what I have observed when using the tick data for Wyckoff and VSA purposes. I found the tick data to be less reliable for anything less than the hourly timeframe.
Seems the logic is that higher TFs are just averaging all the data and it become "the same".
BTW for me there is no dilemma at all. I know that mt4/5 is not a software to trade seriously, higher TFs are not the TFs for serious profits, Brokers tick volume is not the data to analyse. Since time is finite resource then spending it on fakes and cheats is not good. So let them trade using their fake data without us
Observer effect
  • #1,285
  • Jun 16, 2021 6:16am Jun 16, 2021 6:16am
Quoting joyny
{quote} "average" with 4 exclamations... {image}{image} {image} Peter... boy... little boy.... little conservative boy... you "have found".... o Peter Peter boy... now all clear. tnx Peter boy. this was funny


I did say average. Naturally I cannot "make" a market do what I want all the time, so let's keep some realistic perspective here. The maths you are showing is silly. After you deduct any transaction costs, tax and any other monies you need to pay out or put aside, the %'s are less. Trading is not free. So please put your brain in your head. It's all about ....... say it with me ....... CONSISTENCY.

Just look at a 60 minute chart with the usual daily separator on it. Surely you can do THAT properly, seeing as you cannot handle the real life mathematics and bookkeeping. Almost every day there is a setup. And so .... who cares what you do or don't do. What you CAN or cannot do. The chart is showing you what's on offer. Either trade it or don't trade it. Simple right??? Yeah I thought so too.

Your FIRST job as a trader is to think properly. So quit it with your BS. Consistency and usable maths skills. WOOOW !!! It's as if I'm talking to preschoolers. Can you say up? And now say down? Now say them in sequence !!! Well done.

This is why I have a MAJOR problem with people here. Stupidity rules. I understand that not ALL persons here are F/T traders i.e. a person who draws their primary income from trading. But are you that mentally docile to think that everyone else is just "trying to work this stuff out" ???? It's very disturbing that as soon as you speak about money to people around here, I can actually HEAR their brains curl up in the fetal position in the corner of the room. Are you THAT scared of it? Or perhaps you don't understand it? Whatever the reason ........... MONEY ............. PROFITS .............. HIGH PERCENTAGE RETURNS.

Are you shaking in your panties yet? WOOOW !!!

Seriously ...... WOOW !

If you want to learn or just do BETTER than you've been doing, then that's great. But to be a fool, not necessary.

Learn or piss off.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,286
  • Jun 16, 2021 6:47am Jun 16, 2021 6:47am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Tim is trying to check if there is a difference between broker tick volume data and futures volume data. So averaging is not an approach for that task at all. And there is a difference. The lower TF the bigger the difference. So broker tick data can't be used for trading on 1M tf for example. But may be it is good to trade on higher TF, because the difference is not so big and the whole picture remains the same. Next task is to compare Delta the same way. I think it will be very interesting. The purpose of that is to answer a question: is...
I am talking about H4 trading only. From my experience of index futures derivatives CFD only.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,287
  • Jun 16, 2021 6:51am Jun 16, 2021 6:51am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} I did say average. Naturally I cannot "make" a market do what I want all the time, so let's keep some realistic perspective here. The maths you are showing is silly. After you deduct any transaction costs, tax and any other monies you need to pay out or put aside, the %'s are less. Trading is not free. So please put your brain in your head. It's all about ....... say it with me ....... CONSISTENCY. Just look at a 60 minute chart with the usual daily separator on it. Surely you can do THAT properly, seeing as you cannot handle the real life...
Yawn.
What one would call, ‘up one’s own bottom’!
  • #1,288
  • Jun 16, 2021 7:07am Jun 16, 2021 7:07am
Quoting TraderTim125
Futures vs Tick..............

Have you been thinking, calculate these values by session, example London.

I don't know would there be any difference, but thinking there can be lot of noise out of active times, more ticks than trades in futures (relative) , which may mess the results. ?

Thank you for study/research these kind of things
  • #1,289
  • Jun 16, 2021 7:09am Jun 16, 2021 7:09am
Quoting PeterCaleb
This is why I have a MAJOR problem with people here.
The reason you have problems here with people is that you are liar.

Please show us where you get 5% movement a day with 10% SL (you are using RRR at least 1:2 yes?). Of where is movement of 0.5% daily with 1% SL. Or... wait. It can't be lower because if so you DD will be very big? Ah please don't say you have multiply trades, because you are trading higher TFs only. And do not say you are trading multi pairs, because you said that you profit is 5-6% in average 3-4 times a week on selected pair.

I know what you will say. Something with word "LEARN".

Your dreams about exclusive math rules that works only in your imagination are not interesting.
Observer effect
  • #1,290
  • Jun 16, 2021 8:39am Jun 16, 2021 8:39am
Below is an example of one who achieves a daily return of 2% for one year with a starting amount of $1000.

I find it somewhat strange that someone who claims such a return would be wasting time posting here in these forums with such silly arguments.
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  • #1,291
  • Jun 16, 2021 8:41am Jun 16, 2021 8:41am
This is a mere return of 0.2%/day. With this one would double their account in 1 year.
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  • #1,292
  • Jun 16, 2021 9:02am Jun 16, 2021 9:02am
Starting with $1000 and doubling it every year.

Year 0: $1000
Year 1: $2000
Year 2: $4000
Year 3: $8000
Year 4: $16000
Year 5: $32000
Year 6: $64000
Year 7: $128000
Year 8: $256000
Year 9: $512000
Year10: $1024000

Doesn't seem so difficult but probably few could do it. So claims of 5% per day are truly outrageous.
  • #1,293
  • Edited 9:23am Jun 16, 2021 9:13am | Edited 9:23am
Let's return to the tick volume vs real volume. All that Peter's 5% daily is very interesting but not.

So, to get delta (difference) and to find some imbalance we need to get real trades happened. I can be wrong, but forex broker don't have such a data. Where I can see the list of trades with volume for 15:19 GU today for example? Not the bid/ask. Bid/ask are "May be I want to buy some at XXX price" and "Ok, I can sell you some at XXX price". Because imbalance of bids and asks is not the data we are looking for.
Then there is no big sense in tick volume? What you think guys?
Observer effect
  • #1,294
  • Jun 16, 2021 10:19am Jun 16, 2021 10:19am
Quoting PeterCaleb
I did say average. Naturally I cannot "make" a market do what I want all the time, so let's keep some realistic perspective here. The maths you are showing is silly. After you deduct any transaction costs, tax and any other monies you need to pay out or put aside, the %'s are less. Trading is not free. So please put your brain in your head. It's all about ....... say it with me ....... CONSISTENCY.
Peter boy... I have an account balance in MT4 10000 usd. I make 5% daily profits as you said. Then I have on account after 1st trading day 10500 usd. I start 2nd day trading with 10500 usd. What transaction costs, tax here or "other monies" you see here little silly Peter boy?
  • #1,295
  • Jun 16, 2021 10:42am Jun 16, 2021 10:42am
Quoting PeterCaleb
If I can please chime in here .... The more someone limits their definitions of things, the more they miss out on learning. Eg - For me ...... I do an average (!!!!) of 5-6 % per day that I trade. Now please keep in mind this is conservative and does not happen EVERY single day of the week. But I have found that this is doable at least 3-4 times per week on any given instrument. Once you understand the construct dynamics of any move, it is easier to determine what can be done. This is just my lingo but essentially = initial reversal then follow...
Doable
  • #1,296
  • Jun 16, 2021 2:08pm Jun 16, 2021 2:08pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
This is why I have a MAJOR problem with people here. Stupidity rules.
This is what confuses me about you Peter. In my experience, normal people do not engage with individuals whom they feel are beneath them. Why would you waste your time? It takes time to put up a paragraph on a forum. If you are making around 5% a day on average, less commissions, fees, and taxes then you should be on CNBC. If you took 4% out in overhead, leaving you with a mere 1% per day on average, I am still quite sure that GS, C, HSBC, and several families of questionable repute would be very interested in your services. Peter Caleb would be a household name. So, why would you post something that is so easily shot down unless you are simply seeking attention?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,297
  • Jun 16, 2021 2:53pm Jun 16, 2021 2:53pm
Let's say you managed to trade only once per week and averaged 5% on those trades. Let's also say you withdrew 50% of profit for whatever. Let's also say you traded 48 weeks out of the year taking a 2 week vacation twice per year. Starting with $1000:

Year 1: $2271
Year 2: $7430
Year 3: $24,307
Year 4: $79520
Year 5: $260148
Year 6: $851071
Year 7: $2784269
  • #1,298
  • Jun 16, 2021 3:01pm Jun 16, 2021 3:01pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} This is what confuses me about you Peter. In my experience, normal people do not engage with individuals whom they feel are beneath them. Why would you waste your time? It takes time to put up a paragraph on a forum. If you are making around 5% a day on average, less commissions, fees, and taxes then you should be on CNBC. If you took 4% out in overhead, leaving you with a mere 1% per day on average, I am still quite sure that GS, C, HSBC, and several families of questionable repute would be very interested in your services. Peter Caleb...
Anyone with the experience Peter claims to have, would never claim to achieve 5% every day he trades. George Soros has never made 5% a day, consistently, over an extended period of time. No big bank has ever made 5% a day, consistently. And Peter made a point of "consistency". If he were an experienced trader, he'd know this is an impossible bar to set. I've said some pretty unflattering things about Peter, because he never, ever explains himself in a clear and concise manner. Let's see how he explains 5% per day, every day he trades.

Edit: Regarding an actual trading topic, the FOMC announcements today is a great example of the importance of targets. The moves in most pairs went right to targets. I hope everyone reading this got some of this FA move, and not just 5 or 6 pips, but 40 or 50. If you ever want to make 1% to 3% a day (not every day, but on good FA days like today), start looking at targets. There's a brutal truth in that statement somewhere, or maybe just me ranting again!
  • #1,299
  • Edited 4:01pm Jun 16, 2021 3:37pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Edit: Regarding an actual trading topic, the FOMC announcements today is a great example of the importance of targets. The moves in most pairs went right to targets. I hope everyone reading this got some of this FA move, and not just 5 or 6 pips, but 40 or 50.
I must agree with you about the targets. Even a novice like me got it right today..

Edit: The past 2 days they made a range of about 53 pips on EU (of which that is normally made in 1 day). So something was up and FOMC was used to cover the shortfall.
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  • #1,300
  • Jun 16, 2021 3:41pm Jun 16, 2021 3:41pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Just look at a 60 minute chart with the usual daily separator on it. Surely you can do THAT properly, seeing as you cannot handle the real life mathematics and bookkeeping. Almost every day there is a setup. And so .... who cares what you do or don't do. What you CAN or cannot do. The chart is showing you what's on offer. Either trade it or don't trade it. Simple right??? Yeah I thought so too. Your FIRST job as a trader is to think properly.
Created special thread to reveal PeterCaleb wisdom. Let's get maximum out of all this we can! Let's start LEARNING.
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