The brutal truth of day trading

sweet! but its just like Bill (Williams) says, you can only trade your own personal belief systems, here is what 30+ years of trading yields.
45 days live https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachmen...95206/8501.jpg its not so hard to master trading, if you dispel the lies you believe to be true about trading.

I previously alluded to the natural human tendency to seek recognition and I included myself. A forum such as FF designed to "share" ideas about trading provides ample opportunity to seek recognition. Having no built-in check on claims made by individuals seeking recognition pretty much anything goes. Most claims are relatively benign and go unchallenged.

Soap opera entertainment is provided when one comes along with spectacular claims or an attitude suggesting he/she exclusively has an understanding that eludes most. An air of arrogance about such a person serves to rev things up. Of course such a person is pounced on immediately. A person making outlandish unsubstantiated claims who fails to receive the recognition he/she seeks and desires eventually resorts to the same ridiculing and demeaning that those providing an audience are doing to him/her. Eventually things just deteriorate to truly vile depths where no one will come out ahead.

It really is quite sad because such a person is truly suffering. So while I'll provide facts to dispute untruthfulness I won't participate in a campaign to destroy someone either. A certain individual has seen it fit to create a thread designed to nothing but mock. Its creation is nothing but a forum to kick someone when they're down. Yeah they might not know they're down but they are.

So while some learning can come of even these kinds of disputes it seems that even that has ceased with the creation of a thread where a mob can now attack another individual.

I hope your proud.

The question is motive.
What is Caleb's motive on this or anyone else's thread.
When Rick comments Caleb is ready with a retort.
Rick demonstrates an understanding of how to trade and a particular view as to how the markets work.
So once again, ask one self the question, what is Caleb's motive.

How did this approach do with this FOMC? USD got soo strong suddenly. Could that be foreseen with this software?

What happens with USD yesterday, pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUDUSD drops drastically, USD strongest
or may FOMC already giving impact?

The only response to all this talk is this - there are the people will do whatever it takes to prove me wrong THEN there are the people who HAVE proven what I have always said, to be true, and THEN there are those people who are SO SHELL SHOCKED to believe that someone in the world can do something better then them. Or, knows how to do something they cannot (yet) do for themselves.

I am a human being first and then a trader. It is what I do and not who/what I am. ANY real life trader in this world who's worth his/her salt, knows that % work is far superior over total points or $$$ because the "amount" you work with changes, therefore, you need a central "theme" as an anchor.

I use %'s to help gauge volatility per day. I use %'s inline with this to set daily targets. DEAL WITH IT. If someone NEEDS to produce a primary income then this IS what you do. It's called WORK rugrats. Therefore, I am not a "one ticket guy".

I am on this site for the same reason it's always been and no amount of ridiculous chatter will change that.

If you're simply too immature to just admit you don't know something, or don't know how to do something, then that is on YOU.

But if it's "easier" to put me on the pile with the other people you choose to crucify, then fair enough. All I can say is --- Welcome to real life.

So bad luck if you don't believe it, bad luck if you don't agree and bad luck if you don't like it.

I learned at an early stage in my career that only I can manage my money. Unfortunately, most "average thinking" people do not want to learn. You just want to remain relentlessly silly, ignoring certain simple realities of trading.

So really, in the end, who cares what your opinion is, the losers will cry and scratch meanwhile other people sense the usual "crowd" seem to only show their lackings whenever they open their mouths. I'm not here to glorify your ignorance. So here's a novel idea - go out and prove me right. It requires no backbone and strength to spit on something but it requires IMMENSE courage to prove it right.

So THERE is an interesting challenge for you all - go look in the mirror and admit you've been an idiot and do something productive. OR, keep being the way you are and then someday, you'll piss off the wrong person and ..... well, I'm sure we ALL have some idea of what happens next when you do all this in real life.

Cheerio

Peter

My challenge to you still stand

Challenge 1
Download this trade report, trade from Asian Open to London Closed and post the report.
Fixed a day in advance if you want to take up the challenge, this is to avoid only post report on winning day.
TradeReport_compact.mq4

Challenge 2
Take up the5ers free challenge.
Complete the 3 stages in 1 month, even tough there is no time limit set by the5ers.
Upon completion no need to pay for their funded account.

Have no interest.
You started grandstanding from day 1, running people down, ridiculing, and nothing has changed.
Forex Factory is full of them.
Life is full of them.
You are one of them.
Cheerio.

What I started from day 1, was a simple process of showing all people, the difference between the mental emotional degenerates that exist in the "Facebook/Twitter/Forex Factory/TradingView/Youtube World" these days, who have little knowledge of so many things. What you call grandstanding is just your idea of things going on and doesn't come close to reality.

I knew going in that these degenerates exist, and that "right fighting" with people who are like this, is futile. And I knew that the "liar-liar" syndrome exists. So I simply found a better way to do it. While the idiots/degenerates do "their thing", they help pave the way for real people who legitimately want to learn. And by doing this, it also shows the "others" who believe age and wisdom are a natural couple.

These types of people I have mentioned, show others how not to be, how not to think and how not to approach their trading interests.

Those who won't learn become the object of someone else's learning. That's just how Life works, in all facets.

People ask me how I have time for being here and doing my trading? It's called being organized and attentive to real life.

So truthfully, who cares at all about the opinions of "no-names" and degenerates, be it online or not?

I draw issue with the things that obviously create large shortcomings in people's efforts.

There is no replacement for common sense.

I can't teach you that. No one can.

So have fun with the idea that you're right, as you never were.


Peter

Hi Skyf

Unfortunately no software can foreseen a strong move like last night. The software can show what has just happen a few seconds later only but the DOM can on a few occasions show what may happen within the next 30 seconds.

An example is an continuous order that restricts movement in one direction, therefore with the intent to change market direction.
I was trading one on Tuesday night where they blocked a bullish EURUSD move and created a short term bearish move.
Its performed by a EA and tops up the lot order size every time it gets hit. Generally it is about 3 times the size of the average chart order and never decreases much at all.

Another example and one I called out of the live trading channel was density stacking of AUDUSD on Tuesday night as well (last night was untradable during London session). That is where the Asks (Sellers) were stacked in high numbers close together to absorb any bullish breakouts and creates a strong bearish move.
The numbers were on futures 1530 lots selling, 531 lots buying - A strong bearish move occurred which was reflected as well in spotfx.

I have never lost a trade if a Futures move ran true and it didn't play out as well on spotfx as well.
If the setup fails on Futures, then I also lose money on spotfx.
Their hearts beat together

Cheers Rick

“the weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness”--LaPlace

What is an extraordinary claim? A quick Google search tells us this : Hume precisely defined an extraordinary claim as one that is directly contradicted by a massive amount of existing evidence. For a claim to qualify as extraordinary there must exist overwhelming empirical data of the exact antithesis.

The above is what you just did Peter, you made an extraordinary claim, and then you get your panties in a bunch when challenged on this claim. To suggest you are being crucified is just silly, and a bit arrogant to boot. Playing the martyr card is just poor taste.

We are not responding to the man, we are responding to the claim, and the method of communication.

It's strictly business, never personal.

Yes I can't teach you.

Not as good as you only miserable 1%

Something about setting 40 pips target. Just count last night/yesterday morning that you were lucky cos the news move in favour of you.
Try today 40 pips target.

TARGET!TARGET!TARGET!
This target is stop hunt, and we sit at the sideline and watch the pip moves (yes there is an indicator just for that) plus the FIBO, TMA, and an oscillating indicator.
Plus take a look at recent George's images.

If you see someone suffering, should you help him, call help 911 or forexfactory admin.

This case what you are talking about, i don't have lot of empathy or compassion. From far away and only reading stuff and because i am not shrink or medical specialist I cant say do he has Asperger syndrome or something similar. So I could feel different for him.

If you think that way, when someone is stabbing people on streets, and others try to stop that, because forexfactory admin don't do nothing.

So call them mob and "to be proud", for me you belittle people who are stabbed.

futures.io forum the dude would be kick out hours.

I hope you think couple times about your thoughts, its not easy make reasoning , when case is not clear.

For observation , where you anchored the FIBO must be constant and not be subjective.
If you keep shifting your FIBO you learn nothing.

stop my trade when it almost at 54

Up-Down-Up-Down-Up-Down-?-?-?.......

Hopefully everyone achieve their % target daily/weekly/monthly.

for EU and Move after FED.

I am asking from myself, why the price stall around 1.2 while it was also easy spot drawing level, dumb as me.
was it because there was so many passive and limit orders what couldn't absorb ?.

Profit, Risk, and Edge


The above comments are some of the most sobering thoughts I have come across on this forum.

Most of us have probably heard stories about someone who opened a $100 FX trading account and turned it into a $million dollars over a year or two. Believe it or not, if you are a very good trader, such a thing is possible, at least theoretically. Of course it is also possible to win the grand lottery!

If you’re a poor or mediocre trader, you’ll probably get better odds investing in lottery tickets.

Whenever someone says they earn 5% or 25% a month on their capital the first question that comes to my mind is what is your risk? More specifically. What is your draw-down or even more specifically your maximum intra-trade draw down over the period that you are measuring your profit? And what is the period or more specifically how many trades have you taken over that period? It needs to be at least 30 and preferably a lot more. Attempting to measure monthly returns with only 4 or 5 “swing trades” is meaningless. For trades of this duration you would need to use a longer period of say 6 or 12 months.

There are a number of ways of measuring risk but the one I prefer is intra-trade drawdown. That is a “real world” risk that churns your gut and blows up your account.

A simple formula that we all know but often forget when we start talking about trading profits is

Profit is proportional to Capital x Risk x Edge

It is easy enough to pour money into a trading account and wind up the risk to achieve a high return on capital but that doesn’t demonstrate how good a trader you are. That is determined by your edge and to a lesser extent your risk tolerance.

You might be earning 25% a month which sounds impressive but if your maximum intra-trade drawdown is 50% it means you have a reward/risk ratio of 0.5. This then becomes a very ordinary performance with an exceptionally high level of risk that sooner or later will almost certainly result in a blown up account and a loss of everything. To my mind, trading with this level of risk projects an unhealthy level of desperation.

What is all this intra-trade drawdown about?

Not all that long ago I was asked to evaluate the performance of a couple of traders who were publishing their trades on MyFxBook, probably in the hope of being discovered by a prop trading firm. One of the first things I looked at was their draw down. MyFxBook and many similar services utilise FX history data which only records closed trade profit and loss. MyFxbook appears to be doing some other things as well. Possibly they are spot sampling live trades but their reported draw downs can be highly inaccurate and some traders appear to have worked out ways to game the system to show much better results than deserved.

If you are using a conservative stop loss, then there won’t be much difference between intra-trade and closed trade draw-down but if you use very large stop losses or even worse, no stop losses at all then the difference can be huge.

When I extracted the trade data from MyFxBook for these guys and ran it through a simulator (not the MetaTrader simulator) the real maximum intra-trade drawdown was several times greater than what was being reported by MyFxBook. These guys turned out not to be the sort of traders that you would want to employ or otherwise trust with hard earned capital.

A few years ago I had a different opportunity to monitor the trading performance of a small group of prop traders for several months. They were the best traders that I have ever personally witnessed. For me their trading skills were impressive.

They each traded different time frames and strategies under very strict risk management rules. Their overall performance was remarkably similar and ranged from about 4% to 7% a month with a maximum intra-trade drawdown ranging from about 1% to 2%. The truly impressive thing was their consistency. They did this month after month.

When the market was in the doldrums, they all showed lower returns. When the market was buoyant, they all showed higher returns. When the market threw them a regime change, they all quickly adapted or modified their strategies to meet the changed conditions and hardly missed a beat in the process.

A few of my trading friends and I have a little peer-to-peer mentoring group where we share trading results on a monthly basis and provide support and practical assistance for each other. As a result of my experience with these prop traders, we set ourselves a a monthly bench mark of 5% with a maximum of 2% intra-trade drawdown.

I have achieved that on a few occasions, as have some of the others, but not consistently. None of us have. Perhaps mastering order flow will be the leg up we need to get past that hurdle.

Regards
Tim

Hi kk100,

Yes, Interesting idea.

I have just run a few additional tests mostly on EURUSD & GBPUSD and mostly for the times 10:00 to 17:00 New York Close chart time (UTC +3). It didn't seem to make a whole lot of difference. There was a difference of a few percentage points here and there but nothing that I would regard as significant. I am currently carrying out these tests for a 5 day period and there is more day to day variation than what is being observed by measuring just the "busy" periods of the trading day.

Regards
Tim