EURUSD only

EURUSD is consolidating on the weekly chart above 5 sma, there is not so much momentum building on the bearish side, but instead I see a good uptrend yet (channel).



On the daily chart EURUSD is bearish, testing its "new" range which should be - 2180/2050. There is good bearish pressure that has build below 2250.



In the 4 hours chart above 2050 there are still some chances for it to test 2175/2200 we are in bearish consolidation.



FOMC will be the event of the week.

The dxy in h4 with rsi14 was overbought last Friday and started already retracing a bit from 90.60 to 90.50 in the usa session only.

Eurusd in m15 is rebounding from the lows (europe close 1.2100 and usa close 1.2110).
When downtrend persists it should stay below my channel, rebound target 1.2120.
If it makes a bigger retrace what more than once has happened after a friday max we could see pivot (1.2130 zone) or even 1.2147 as retrace.

My system did give a good short signal last Friday around 1.2165- 1.2170. After that no long signal m15 was given.
But signals arent always good in m15. Market should move and not range.
To enter trades i always switch back to m5 and m1.
The Color ma BDv8_12_31 settings are 50-1-3 for one and for the second Color ma 50-1-2. The other indicators are used default.
The button trader (not part of the system) is an expert to manually enter trades, close trades (pb,ps little buttons close only if in profit) and in the menu it has a trail option.
You can find the files under the uploaded files in my profile if you want to try the template.

Well said bro.This is Forex trading am watching too..

So ur post in summary.... EU can go UP..... or Down... LOL

This analysis based on Monthly. Details mentioned inside the chart.

Possible Pathway

Simple MACD on 4hrs.

- Hi guys, I hope to find you all healthy here!
I try to follow the forum whenever I can. Many see mirages here, yes because the market is dynamic, deceptive and tempting.
I see many here and there waiting for important news , this and that... I don't really follow any of this to make my entries in the market. I follow what I can here with you, to learn more and more ,,, As we all know, the market is made of waves. Then; I try to make the chart as clean as possible, yes, I just use Renko's chart.
Everyone has their operating system, I use Renko's charts and point to everyone, insert their favorite indicators into both charts and you'll see what I mean here.
I see here, the market has already closed in an uptrend, so let's go up a little, how much will it go up? I don't cling to it, I'll be on the go until I get the momentum.
Simplicity always wins, if you insert too many indicators on your chart, you will often not enter the market due to the confluence between them.

DXY

26 week target(s)

Expecting a small retracement towards 1.21160 - 1.21360 area before resuming the fall
TP1 - 1.20730 (-1.28 fib extension of the Jun 4th - 9th rally)
If TP1 breaks, TP2 - 1.20630
SL >= 1.21450

US10Y Broke an important support (4H) what will be the effect of US10y

Yeah, at this point I've switched to the bear camp. I currently do not have any positions in the market, I have closed all my longs for the time being.

Your reasoning for the decline on Friday is very logical, but one interesting thing that I've noticed is that the move on friday was more caused by USD than by EUR. For this reason I believe that we are in for a further drop during this week.

I'd like to add that we are at a CRITICAL point right now, the switch has not yet been full established, we might be going for a day, or a month of bearish movement. I will keep following the situation, for tomorrow I will only be looking for chances to SELL EUR/USD.

The biggest trading opprotunities happen in moments like this, and for me this is where it's always worth it to start building up a position, be it long term or not.

Currently there is very high potential for making short trades with a very good risk reward ratio... I'll be staying in the bear camp for now, looking for chances to sell. There is also a chance that the market reverses and goes long again, in this case I will likely not be placing any trades tomorrow.

I have a few detailed scenarions drawn on charts, I'll post them later.

In the charts below you can see the relative value change in the value of EUR and USD, as clearly visible when looking at relative values USD was the market mover, while EUR stayed neutral. Based on macro data, the EUR should have lost more value compared to a basket of currencies, it should have been the market mover rather than USD. This is another argument to reinforce a further price drop - "the eur owes the market a drop" - we will see if this materializes in the coming week.

For me - this cycle is over and I'm looking for a new cycle, at this moment it looks like It'll be a bearish one, but I'm also open to all options, so i can not rule out a bullish scenario. It's never good to run around in both directions (at least for me) so i will focus on the more likely scenario at the moment- the bearish one.

[quote=Vorenzd;13581361]{quote} Tak, w tym momencie przeniosłem się do obozu niedźwiedzi. Obecnie nie mam żadnych pozycji na rynku, na razie zamknęłem wszystkie ..... {obraz}[/cytat]

forget , analysis cycles etc, next week is the option period

ups

New entry in 1.21023 , Without TP / SL

Good luck with this one! Well, my impression is that bulls will be back shortly, but not now, not this week. I sense quite some selling pressure, and will tend to buy swings to the upside. I may be wrong though, of course.

...

the best level seeking buy at level 50% fiboo ret weekly 1.19849 .... at that level it is more likely for bulls to come to protect the price to go down

Or you can draw this channel somewhat steeper, in which case it would go down to 1.2060-70 area.