- #134,762
- Edited 4:27pm Jun 11, 2021 3:38pm | Edited 4:27pm
- Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,148 Posts
Would anybody please share a direct link to COT report?
I must warn you that this does not represent the real difference in positions. The commercial positions are upside down.. long positions become short positions and vica versa...
That's because commercials are mostly hedging a position (for protection). This approach better represents sentiment, as when they open a short position they are probably long on another position that they want to hedge..
The main thing to notice is that non commercials (mostly banks, ...) are increasingly more bullish... as you can see the positions rising in the lower band.
Another thing to notice is that when you lay the weekly eurusd chart on top of this chart it's practically the same
.Question is if you really need CoT reports to trade (as they lag 2 weeks behind price).
When price moves up that's probably because there is more demand than supply...
I do believe however that in periods of weekly consolidation these reports may provide valuable insight in what the market is probably going to do.. It can answer the question: are we in distribution or re-accumulation?
To answer a question you might have... intstitutional traders are NET LONG. That does not mean however price isn't going to fluctuate.
A fundamental event or a technical factor may cause institutions to dump positions which we will see in price first.. and after two weeks in the CoT reports.
The report that comes out today is a representation of positions on tuesday two weeks ago.
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
- #134,763
- Jun 11, 2021 3:43pm Jun 11, 2021 3:43pm
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,197 Posts
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
- #134,764
- Jun 11, 2021 4:30pm Jun 11, 2021 4:30pm
- Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,175 Posts
Another day, another dollar.
- #134,765
- Jun 11, 2021 4:41pm Jun 11, 2021 4:41pm
- Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,148 Posts
{quote} you could even draw it as a falling wedge. this would be a nice trick, when everyone expects a channel.
I am seeing a regular ABC correction, start of wave 3 maybe?It's hard to predict what institutions are going to do in the future sadly enough
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
- #134,766
- Jun 11, 2021 10:04pm Jun 11, 2021 10:04pm
Closing my short.. Both side still not giving what i want for too long I might regret it but it's ok * Speaking of getting bamboozled. it dropped a bit now{image}
Don't mind me.. i'm crazy
- #134,767
- Jun 11, 2021 10:47pm Jun 11, 2021 10:47pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,228 Posts
Make it Green
- #134,769
- Jun 12, 2021 1:14am Jun 12, 2021 1:14am
- Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,175 Posts
Another day, another dollar.
- #134,770
- Jun 12, 2021 3:34am Jun 12, 2021 3:34am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 4,714 Posts
The Average Discount Everything
- #134,771
- Jun 12, 2021 4:43am Jun 12, 2021 4:43am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,131 Posts
Honestly speaking was wondering why some should go long on EURO/USD. Last week weekly chart showed an engulfing candel against the previous weekly candel which shows that the possibilty of price going below last week low was 80%. On a long term,why should I go Long no way. Check weekly chart, there is bearish divergent with its leg at 1.13000. So I will keep looking for a good level for a short entry with a target of 1.13000 long term.
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #134,773
- Edited 1:08pm Jun 12, 2021 5:38am | Edited 1:08pm
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,079 Posts
- #134,774
- Jun 12, 2021 5:41am Jun 12, 2021 5:41am
{quote} Good reasoning.. yes.. If you are right those who go long possibly have plan b ready.. therefore don't worry.. BUT market has done and still will do things that many of us will never understand.. I follow the monthly and the long term course is to the upside.. You follow the weekly and the course is maybe down for a while.. So be it.. But at this stage one engulfing, one pattern, one divergence etc. is NEVER enough to make conclusions.. We will wait and see how it goes.. Cheers
Plan B and Risk Management are very important. So as we speak. There is a Higher chance that this is only a bounce back. we should wait for the confirmation.
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Patience is very important.
- #134,779
- Edited 4:46pm Jun 12, 2021 4:32pm | Edited 4:46pm
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,079 Posts
A few things to say about this image.
1. This running flat ABC correction may have ended.
2. I do not know about anyone but Jeff Booth who is saying that the end game is deflationary down spiral that is not gonna be followed by any inflation. Even Steven Van Metre is thinking that a deflationary crash would prompt hyper inflation. What if even he is wrong about this second part? Yes, there was hyper inflation after the great recession, but with a 45-year delay.
Imagine a 5 wave structure down kicking off from here. What exactly makes quantitative easing in the US different from quantitative easing in Japan?
3. The Covid white out was a volatility whip - first time I saw this on a weekly
1. This running flat ABC correction may have ended.
2. I do not know about anyone but Jeff Booth who is saying that the end game is deflationary down spiral that is not gonna be followed by any inflation. Even Steven Van Metre is thinking that a deflationary crash would prompt hyper inflation. What if even he is wrong about this second part? Yes, there was hyper inflation after the great recession, but with a 45-year delay.
Imagine a 5 wave structure down kicking off from here. What exactly makes quantitative easing in the US different from quantitative easing in Japan?
3. The Covid white out was a volatility whip - first time I saw this on a weekly