Down trend from the weekly graph looks like very important.
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- #134,745
- Edited Jun 12, 2021 3:16am Jun 11, 2021 12:49pm | Edited Jun 12, 2021 3:16am
- Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,148 Posts
Hi everybody ; what will be the effect of the FED meeting?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...e-signal-noise
To conclude.. if they talk tapering this will probably cause yields to fall (risk off environment), this is caused by money flowing away from risky asssets (stocks, ...).
So this would be bullish for safe haven assets (bonds, dollar, yen, gold, ...)
Second factor is the tapering itself which compared to the ECB's stance could trigger a downward trend in EURUSD.
This would mean that it depends on what the fed says, so best is to stay out of the market when the news comes out.. let it show direction and trade in that direction.
I do believe however, that the fed isn't going to taper and that massive inflation is the END GAME to wipe out the middle class (quote GM)
As the main factor behind this "printing" is to influence export prices because of the massive trade deficits. For now the one who has the weakest currency "wins".
Second factor is to keep rates supressed, and not to trigger a year long economic depression.
Read this article for more insights in why a more easy money and a low interest rate desicion would flee investors out of bonds and mainly into precious metals..
At the current rate of inflation the real yield on bonds is negative. Why would you hold them? Why would you hold cash? ...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we...i-highest-1980
Yields however are supressed because the fed is buying every bond that is sold as investors flee out. As long as that goes on, inflation rises but yields stay low..
The higher inflation rises the less attractive bonds become to investors, so the more investors flee out of them.
To keep rates supressed, the fed will have to provide larger and larger sums of liquidity, to meet the supply. That's why the balance sheet is going parabolic.
They also have said, a couple of weeks ago, that monetairy policies will stay in place until 2023.
The inflation we are seeing now is peanuts from what we are about to see when the velocity of money picks up.
And at the current rate of money printing, we may see weimar like hyperinflation.
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If they decide not to taper, and keep rates unchanged I also see it possible for a situation like ATA's post below play out.
I do however have my doubts that it has anything to do with candles opening above resistance.
I would draw it like this and I just see a possible bull flag that may play out in the direction of the trend when sentiment, that changes (or stays the same) because of fundamentals, say so.. (but that's my opinion)
If that's the case we break an important resistance and we'll see the EURUSD rise, possibly for years to come.
Grtz
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
- #134,746
- Jun 11, 2021 12:50pm Jun 11, 2021 12:50pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
{quote} ...... told you brov, watch out those guys...... heeeeyaaaa )) {image} {image}
And here is my crazy theory.. Sorry that my monitor is not big enough to show the full candle.. couldn't fit it in.. Coming soon...
Time will tell.. 
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #134,747
- Jun 11, 2021 1:18pm Jun 11, 2021 1:18pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
{quote} Once again: it was about your timing.. that was the only things I criticized.. not that I care though.. all of it was just friendly teasing..
...because you never know - until you do!
- #134,748
- Edited 1:42pm Jun 11, 2021 1:21pm | Edited 1:42pm
- Joined Jul 2020 | Status: Trader | 999 Posts
{quote} Once again: it was about your timing.. that was the only things I criticized.. not that I care though.. all of it was just friendly teasing..
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
- #134,749
- Jun 11, 2021 1:42pm Jun 11, 2021 1:42pm
{quote} Once again: it was about your timing.. that was the only things I criticized.. not that I care though.. all of it was just friendly teasing..
- #134,750
- Jun 11, 2021 1:51pm Jun 11, 2021 1:51pm
- Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,175 Posts
{quote} Once again: it was about your timing.. that was the only things I criticized.. not that I care though.. all of it was just friendly teasing..
Another day, another dollar.
- #134,751
- Jun 11, 2021 2:05pm Jun 11, 2021 2:05pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
{quote} ...i just told you watch out because your are long, that's it )))
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #134,752
- Jun 11, 2021 2:10pm Jun 11, 2021 2:10pm
{quote} Once again: it was about your timing.. that was the only things I criticized.. not that I care though.. all of it was just friendly teasing..
Can't tell if you're serious or just trying to make bulls feel better. Those that are still long from 2265 and got slaughtered today. 
Technically anything is possible. On the daily it looks like a textbook bull-flag ready to break. Plus we are sitting at the 61.8% fib. But there are still two major demand zones down below. One which sits at 78.6%, and the other negates fibs entirely.
I still believe we should hit 2300 at some point, for reasons described a few pages back.
Next week should be exciting.
(BTW, where is mtako this week? This thread is a little less lively without him.)
- #134,753
- Jun 11, 2021 2:19pm Jun 11, 2021 2:19pm
- Joined Sep 2018 | Status: Trader Man | 2,123 Posts
"No pain no gain"
- #134,754
- Jun 11, 2021 2:29pm Jun 11, 2021 2:29pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
{quote}
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #134,756
- Jun 11, 2021 2:40pm Jun 11, 2021 2:40pm
{quote} I am 100% focused on my system buddy.. what many here say or do (including you) is none of my business.. So no need for you to parent people here.. fyi
- #134,757
- Jun 11, 2021 2:53pm Jun 11, 2021 2:53pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
{quote} ...i don't parent anyone ))) ...i quote like you do to me , that's it )))
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #134,758
- Jun 11, 2021 3:01pm Jun 11, 2021 3:01pm
- Joined Sep 2018 | Status: Trader Man | 2,123 Posts
"No pain no gain"
- #134,759
- Jun 11, 2021 3:07pm Jun 11, 2021 3:07pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
Week ends again in no mans land..
Meanwhile on monthly: 1.2314 area is key resistance.. We are still in bull territory.. This retracement can bounce up from red MA line 1.1988 but it is the monthly and nothing happens instantly here.. Until bulls continue their journey it can require a lot of patience.. Next week is crucial.. My exaggerated bullish view is backed up by monthly! As long as candles are inside the triangle bulls have the upper hand (doesn't mean it can drop 100 pips more lower but bulls still have the upper hand until 1.1895)
Both of my long orders are active.. Will touch nothing..
Calling it a day.. Enjoy your weekends folks
Meanwhile on monthly: 1.2314 area is key resistance.. We are still in bull territory.. This retracement can bounce up from red MA line 1.1988 but it is the monthly and nothing happens instantly here.. Until bulls continue their journey it can require a lot of patience.. Next week is crucial.. My exaggerated bullish view is backed up by monthly! As long as candles are inside the triangle bulls have the upper hand (doesn't mean it can drop 100 pips more lower but bulls still have the upper hand until 1.1895)
Both of my long orders are active.. Will touch nothing..
Calling it a day.. Enjoy your weekends folks
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #134,760
- Jun 11, 2021 3:24pm Jun 11, 2021 3:24pm
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,197 Posts
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!