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  • #134,401
  • Edited 1:33pm Jun 9, 2021 1:10pm | Edited 1:33pm
Looking for 15 min/1hr to close 1.218.

If it does back to 1.219 -1.12215
  • #134,402
  • Jun 9, 2021 1:37pm Jun 9, 2021 1:37pm
Quoting hesron
so up movement today is price manipulation .... price will be going to 1.150 ... by bye up trend ...met you again at 2023
What you call price manipulation I call price consolidation....

So please tell me why this is the end of the uptrend?

Did the 50 day EMA on the dailies break?

Was the MACD primed for a dump

Are most indicators terrible for prediction and useful for confirmation (with exception of E-Waves and Fibs; but that's another thread) - yes.

So convince me to sell the EU - you're up...
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #134,403
  • Jun 9, 2021 1:41pm Jun 9, 2021 1:41pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} What you call price manipulation I call price consolidation.... So please tell me why this is the end of the uptrend? Did the 50 day EMA on the dailies break? Was the MACD primed for a dump Are most indicators terrible for prediction and useful for confirmation (with exception of E-Waves and Fibs; but that's another thread) - yes. So convince me to sell the EU - you're up...
learn how the market build trend
The Average Discount Everything
  • #134,404
  • Jun 9, 2021 1:47pm Jun 9, 2021 1:47pm
Quoting hesron
{quote} learn how the market build trend
I understand PA very well my friend - that is why I'm NOT a bear at this point.

The little drop today from 1.2215 back to 1.2175 is NOTHING!

When bears get going 40 pips are a blip. Bears will wipe you out in a heartbeat, especially for those fools trying to catch falling knives.

When I look at my 4 hour chart I see as many large green as red and nothing to give me hesitation for a bear market - Correction of course but the dollar sucks and unless and until there is FEAR and BLOOD in the streets we are in a risk ON situation hence me buying EU.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #134,405
  • Jun 9, 2021 2:04pm Jun 9, 2021 2:04pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} I understand PA very well my friend - that is why I'm NOT a bear at this point. The little drop today from 1.2215 back to 1.2175 is NOTHING! When bears get going 40 pips are a blip. Bears will wipe you out in a heartbeat, especially for those fools trying to catch falling knives. When I look at my 4 hour chart I see as many large green as red and nothing to give me hesitation for a bear market - Correction of course but the dollar sucks and unless and until there is FEAR and BLOOD in the streets we are in a risk ON situation hence me buying...
bulls have lost power, are getting weaker and will continue to weaken
The Average Discount Everything
  • #134,406
  • Jun 9, 2021 2:21pm Jun 9, 2021 2:21pm
Quoting hesron
{quote} bulls have lost power, are getting weaker and will continue to weaken
Yeah they have, it's called cycles, on this we both agree.

HOWEVER,


Just because the bulls have slowed doesn't turn them into bears.

I don't have ANY classical sell signals and the trend on the daily chart is still up - so....

Let's look further shall we?

Looking at 2021 - this year.

High Jan 6 1.2340
Low Mar 30 1.1700
Currently 1.2180

The current price is 160 pips from the 2021 high and 1,480 pips away from the 2021 low and you are betting on a drop from here - am I correct?

Please tell me why?
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #134,407
  • Jun 9, 2021 2:31pm Jun 9, 2021 2:31pm
Daily S/R Levels for Thursday

  1. Bulls are still trying to achieve a candle close above dotted black line.. For tonight that would be 1.2174 but even a close above 1.2168 can boost up bulls until end of this week..
    In other words: Bulls must watch the resistance zone at 1.2165/75!
  2. Bears however will try to achieve a candle close below my RED moving average.. For tonight that would be 1.2158 area.. Therefore bulls have to be more careful with their orders whenever price comes closer to this level..

That's all.. I hope it helps

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #134,408
  • Jun 9, 2021 2:31pm Jun 9, 2021 2:31pm
Calm down guys... the market is made of waves, so have your tea and relax.
For now, I'm on the sand enjoying the breeze.
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"No pain no gain"
  • #134,409
  • Jun 9, 2021 2:37pm Jun 9, 2021 2:37pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Yeah they have, it's called cycles, on this we both agree. HOWEVER, Just because the bulls have slowed doesn't turn them into bears. I don't have ANY classical sell signals and the trend on the daily chart is still up - so.... Let's look further shall we? Looking at 2021 - this year. High Jan 6 1.2340 Low Mar 30 1.1700 Currently 1.2180 The current price is 160 pips from the 2021 high and 1,480 pips away from the 2021 low and you are betting on a drop from here - am I correct? Please tell me why?
Don't lose focus while getting more and more sucked in into meaningless arguments.. We are here to post around EURUSD and not to dig deep into what others think or believe.. It's all opinions.. Not a big deal.. Let members say or do whatever they want to do as long as rules are followed.. Your focus should be on your charts.. Share what you know and leave the interpretation to the audience.. That's the key to a happy life and a happy forum.. Focusing on your own reality..

Let's continue to post around EURUSD.. Thanks.. Cheers
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #134,410
  • Jun 9, 2021 2:43pm Jun 9, 2021 2:43pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Don't lose focus while getting more and more sucked in into meaningless arguments.. We are here to post around EURUSD and not to dig deep into what others think or believe.. It's all opinions.. Not a big deal.. Let members say or do whatever they want to do as long as rules are followed.. Your focus should be on your charts.. Share what you know and leave the interpretation to the audience.. That's the key to a happy life and a happy forum.. Focusing on your own reality.. Let's continue to post around EURUSD.. Thanks.. Cheers
Ata sir, my apologize but trust me I don't want to talk about meaningless arguments I was attempting to understand if I was missing something, some technical indicator or some new fangled trading analogue.

I respect everyone's opinion - more so if they can back it up with data.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #134,411
  • Jun 9, 2021 2:48pm Jun 9, 2021 2:48pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Ata sir, my apologize but trust me I don't want to talk about meaningless arguments I was attempting to understand if I was missing something, some technical indicator or some new fangled trading analogue. I respect everyone's opinion - more so if they can back it up with data.
All good.. as long as you are aware and in control of your feelings no problems Best wishes..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #134,412
  • Jun 9, 2021 3:00pm Jun 9, 2021 3:00pm
I see a sell off towards 1.21 next based on the daily pinbar (gravestone doji?) from the daily supply area

DXY broken out of a 1h channel, broken daily downtrend to the upside, retested, now I think headed up to the supply in the mid 91s

Cheers
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  • #134,413
  • Jun 9, 2021 3:14pm Jun 9, 2021 3:14pm
Tomorrow ECB rate decision and speech of Lagarde.
Nothing to expect here or very little.

But at the same time USA CPI that will influence the FED message a week later.
From the USD side comes the pressure to go down in eurusd.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/us-...-back-20210609

I will sit on my hands till market decides and hop on the train where ever it goes.
Waiting at least till 14:45 hour Frankfurt time (=15 minutes after cpi release).
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #134,414
  • Jun 9, 2021 4:37pm Jun 9, 2021 4:37pm
Dollar to regain strength?

I believe intermediate wave B may be complete. Inflation numbers coming tomorrow, can expect high numbers.
Fed talking about tapering, but are not going to. Tapering talks may spook the stock market en cause risk off environment, with money flow to safe haven assets.
Inflation is a bullish sign for the dollar. I would expect a medium term wave down, break of basechannel would mean wave 3 of intermediate C.

C can go to 88.6% of primary 1, in this case we may see a period of distribution first. I do believe however the dollar is going to die and in the longer run eur will get stronger, as in the wave count this is the end of primary wave 1, working on primary 2 in a much larger cyclical wave III.

Grtz
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What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
  • #134,415
  • Jun 9, 2021 5:43pm Jun 9, 2021 5:43pm
an attempt to figuring wave count purely from stochastic waves

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  • #134,416
  • Jun 9, 2021 6:34pm Jun 9, 2021 6:34pm
Quoting SteFX85
Dollar to regain strength? I believe intermediate wave B may be complete. Inflation numbers coming tomorrow, can expect high numbers. Fed talking about tapering, but are not going to. Tapering talks may spook the stock market en cause risk off environment, with money flow to safe haven assets. Inflation is a bullish sign for the dollar. I would expect a medium term wave down, break of basechannel would mean wave 3 of intermediate C. C can go to 88.6% of primary 1, in this case we may see a period of distribution first. I do believe however the dollar...
I think we have 2 scenario.first Your scenarios, and second its not 1 but 3-4 and wave 5 not finished. Now i playing 3-4 and now otw to 5. But if FED rate increased i playing your scenarios.

I hope all EW user check it until lower Time frame. Its only 32% fibonaci from wave 0 to higher hight.
Sometimes wave count of elliot wave not clear. It could be rising and making wave 3 and 4. Rule wave 2. More than 50% fibonaci making a-b-c or not.
  • #134,417
  • Jun 9, 2021 6:46pm Jun 9, 2021 6:46pm
The EUR is trading in the high 1.21s with an aim to breach the 1.22 mark that resisted its climb on Monday and stands as a strong ceiling ahead of a possible move to the mid 1.22s. The EUR has sat in a ~50pips channel through the week with firm support coming it at the 1.2150 area, where buying on dips is likely to emerge, that will be followed by a stronger floor at 1.21 if it fails to hold. The EUR is generally holding its uptrend since late-Mar which suggests that 1.22 resistance will remain under pressure.

The relative trend is still bullish and we should be looking at buy opprotunities, however, the recent rise in the relative value of USD and the stagnation of the relative value of EUR, as well as the relative value nearing the critical level of 1.00… it is possible for us to consider it might be time for a trend change.


The risk is currently elevated for a potential trend change, If a bearish case builds, an intraday analysis should be made to try to intercept a trading opprotunity as soon as possible. At this point it might be wise to partially exit some longs and sit on the sideline for a bit... see how things go.

The relative value of EUR/USD has remained nearly identical for 2 sessions, marginally increasing, and still bouncing very close to the critical level at 1.46… It’s important to add that both currencies got relatively stronger, but USD is closing in… perhaps the CPI on Thursday will be the factor that changes the trend from bullish to bearish. At this moment it is hard to tell, but a lot that we’ve studied in the past few days has happened. The new calculations for a trend change by the end of this week (talking about daily timeframe) is around 39%... which is significantly higher (day to day) than yesterdays 33%... that’s quite a jump for one day. The volatility and aftermath of Thursday’s CPI might be the deciding factor in the pares mid term direction.

Charts provided below.
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Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #134,418
  • Edited 7:54pm Jun 9, 2021 7:07pm | Edited 7:54pm
Quoting Kyuu
Based on all the indicators and my opinion, I believe we'll have a 100% bull day from start to finish as I think yesterday was just a big accumulation for longs. Let's see if that unfolds, still long {image}
Yesterday I posted that I thought today was going to be a straight bull run based on all my indicators. I also saw everyone and their mothers talking about going long, so it kind of worried me.

The market flew up today and here we are basically right back at where we started. I still think that the same exact thing is going to happen and here we are at square 1 accumulating once again. My order entry at 1.21736 missed by the spread (1.21734 was the low) so I'm hoping I get filled. Mental SL of 10-15 pips, TP still 1.22693

Edit: Just got filled
  • #134,419
  • Jun 9, 2021 9:28pm Jun 9, 2021 9:28pm
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The Average Discount Everything
  • #134,420
  • Edited 11:16pm Jun 9, 2021 10:46pm | Edited 11:16pm
I really want believe in the bulls but the current PA is sus... The only reason I can imagine with my own strategy is that the long term bull trend pullback has not yet completed and we could even go as low as re-testing the broken resistance and break the low of last week (I find it highly unlikely since we bounced off the price which we broke the resistance initially, image 2)

For me, either that big pullback happens or we will go straight up from here just like I predicted yesterday but we won't drop since a whale has successfully entered here. Let's see the end result tomorrow

Even though the 15 min is sloppy and I don't really want to be long here at 1.21736, I'm willing to take a loss if I'm wrong because of my long term bias.

Side note: My pattern appeared at the price of 1.2166 and I would have longed there or even now (1.2168) If I wasn't already long at 1.21736. I have a feeling this is one of those trades I lose in my system but we'll see what happens
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