I'm long but if bulls don't sneak a nice bullish candle in 1 hour for the 4H close, I'm not certain we will go up. If 1.21641 breaks, that'd be quite concerning for bulls. Just hoping this is just an accumulation at an important horizontal level.
As far as I can see... the music is off for today. A bit early, I know, but the market sometimes is like this. The daily chart for today looks as if it will print a pathetic inside bar... so, the band will rock tomorrow.
For tomorrow we should be looking at buys only, the relative value of the EURO has remain unchanged for three consecutive sessions, while USD remains at a low level (even after it gaining in relative value today). Even though today was a quiet day, like yesterday and the market ranged in a very small, 30ish pips range, any downside movement was caused by the relative increase in the value of the dollar, rather than a decrease in the euro caused by various economic data.
The relative value price of EUR/USD is steadily declining, but the trend remains bullish. By my estimations there is a 33% chance that we see a shift in the relative trend by the end of this week, a shift in relative trend does not mean a shift in real trend, at least not yet, but what it tells us is that a shift in real trend is very likely to occur very soon… this gives us good trading opportunities. I’ll examine this matter further as the week progresses and as we see the developments of both the relative and the real price.
By relative price I'm talking about the price of the currency derived from prices of other currency pairs, adjusted for volume and any relevant derivatives that might have impacted the price(s).
I'd also like to add that "looking for buys" does not mean that the market will go up, it might go down all day... it means that my direction will be buy only, i might find an opprotunity or i might have a "dry day", it is how it is. I like to only take high reward and low risk trades that last a couple days,perhaps even weeks, sometimes it's hard to filter them out, but for me that works best.
Since I have not posted about this before, in case you have any questions related to how I made my statistical estimations or calculations, you can quote me here or ask privately in PM. I will reply to all.
In the image below you can see the charts I made in statistica related to the relative value of EUR/USD, EUR and USD respectively.
Long term profits are inversely proportional to leverage