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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #481
  • Nov 17, 2020 3:26am Nov 17, 2020 3:26am
Quoting tiborf71
when I was a rookie, I started learning with huge hopes, but as the years went by and the more I learned about forex trading, the pink mist began to clear up. the point is to pick up the market as if it were random. and that is the right way. the technical analysis assumes that the market is not made up of random movements, I would rather say that the market is not always random. the traditional technical analysis will not work, but you have certainly already figured this out. there are contexts in the market that can be traded profitably,...
All the charts you see here have been randomly generated. As you can see, you could draw trendlines, find candlestick patterns, detect supply&demand zones, etc... which raises some questions regarding the very nature of the markets.

Are my randomized charts here comparable to real markets? To what degree markets are random? 100%? 90%?

If markets are mostly random, can we profit from trading them?

And if markets are profitable (in theory), how can we successfully detect windows of times where they aren't totally random?

But wait, there's more. Out of the four chart shown here, I know for certain that 3 are totally random and one contains an implicit bias (it is still random, but an underlying statistical trend up or down is applied). Which one isn't 100% random?
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  • #482
  • Nov 17, 2020 4:01am Nov 17, 2020 4:01am
Quoting b4rhep
traders fail for two reasons 1- think they are sometimes right the truth are ALWAYS wrong 2- close their losses very quickly (just what the brokers want) So... know that you will ALWAYS be wrong and that you will not close your losses so fast start thinking like that and you will have extra income for the rest of your life
If a trade is wrong, get out

Trading is very simple. why risk a large draw down because you are stubborn.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #483
  • Jan 12, 2021 2:39am Jan 12, 2021 2:39am
What is the highest leverage that you have used until now?
I have used 300x.
  • #484
  • Jan 19, 2021 12:04pm Jan 19, 2021 12:04pm
Leverage above 5 gives you a significant mathematical disadvantage in a zero sum or negative sum game.

Retail leverage was far too high but regulators finally step in. The latest change will be:

https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...ed-volume-dip/

Aussis are going to 30:1 max leverage too adopting the ESMA leverage caps by March 31, 2021.

Switzerland must follow with a max of 30:1 and a negative balance protection for retail customers. If they can't ensure enough liquidity to close out retail positions without bringing their accounts into negative balances, they still offer too much leverage. It's that easy.

Dukascopy, Saxo, Swissquote.... etc. all of them have to be regulated stronger to prevent an other SNB EUR/CHF desaster. Same is true for crypto..... if that shit crashes retail CFD crypto heros will lose their shirt..... that's as sure as the amen in the church.
  • #485
  • May 19, 2021 12:38pm May 19, 2021 12:38pm
Flash crash in crypto today.

Manipulation techniques from those who first learned it in forex over 3 decades and now apply it on crypto, where regulation is still close to zero.
Cryptotrading is a zero sum game for losers too. Same mechanics, but combined with a mass deception of epic proportions and a cult like crowd behaviour fueled by a perfect social media marketing machine on all channels with budget in the billions of USD.

Today retail traders experience the same trick with mulitple trading plattforms like in forex. As soon as the shit hits the fan an the market goes heavily against their positions, the trading apps and trading applications went offline for hours to make sure they can't trade while vola is high. When they return they see their positions closed at the worst possible price and a lot of them see their accounts completely evaporate.

Minus 41% in 4 days should be enough to kill most of the leveraged accounts with a leverage higher than 3..... all the fancy +/- 100 USD with 100:1 leverage (or more) gaming accounts are gone for good for sure.

After mission accomplished prices recover and the game continues with the search of new victims. Affiliate marketers will earn a killing to channel the new generation of sheeps to the retail brokers.

With China, the second biggest economy started to clamp down on crypto exchanges and crypto products. The retail traders in those countries that regulate the latest the fall out will be worst. This might finally kick off a regulation race by financial regulators in the EU and the US. So far the EU just puts out warnings, but these will have zero effect on addicted crypto gamblers. The losses of today will speed up the pressure on regulators, since a huge number of retail traders suffered big losses and will start to ask the questions why people like Musk can manipulate markets without any consequences for their actions.

Regulators are allways late.... major damage has to occur before they really step up their actions. Won't be different this time.
  • #486
  • May 19, 2021 8:52pm May 19, 2021 8:52pm
Awesome thread! As a new trader (1 year - relatively new) I found this thread incredibly helpful and encouraging.
  • #487
  • May 26, 2021 7:59am May 26, 2021 7:59am
Here a number to quantify the damage in the crypto crash of May 19th 2021:

According to data from Bybt.com over 887,000 accounts totaling $9.4 billion in aggregate crypto assets were liquidated as a result of leverage-based margin calls on May 19.

Nonetheless you will find lots of people claiming here on FF they make money. After 5 years >99% of them are proven liars, about 1% could still be green due to luck, not skill.....

I really ask myself what has to happen that people finally get it:

Retail forex and retail crypto are negative sum games for losers.
  • #488
  • May 26, 2021 10:24am May 26, 2021 10:24am
Quoting HudithePfupf
Here a number to quantify the damage in the crypto crash of May 19th 2021: According to data from Bybt.com over 887,000 accounts totaling $9.4 billion in aggregate crypto assets were liquidated as a result of leverage-based margin calls on May 19. Nonetheless you will find lots of people claiming here on FF they make money. After 5 years >99% of them are proven liars, about 1% could still be green due to luck, not skill..... I really ask myself what has to happen that people finally get it: Retail forex and retail crypto are negative sum games for...
This is the flaw in your argument. On the one hand, you claim that >99% of traders who claim to make are liars, but on the the other, the one percent who do make money are simply lucky. So, you have completely hedged your statement. Almost everyone is a loser, and those that are not losing are just lucky? So, no one has the mental aptitude to make money? Currency pairs are not some mysterious entity. It is simply a pairs trade. Not only that, a trader has fundamental pressures to drive one currency or the other. What is so hard about that?

That said, I do agree with you about the leverage. But the broker is out to make money, and if a trader cannot make rather basic math computations, then a fool and their money are soon parted.

The broker is there to provide a service for a fee. If the trader misuses that service, then it is time to blame the service provider?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #489
  • May 26, 2021 9:56pm May 26, 2021 9:56pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} This is the flaw in your argument. On the one hand, you claim that >99% of traders who claim to make are liars, but on the the other, the one percent who do make money are simply lucky. So, you have completely hedged your statement. Almost everyone is a loser, and those that are not losing are just lucky? So, no one has the mental aptitude to make money? Currency pairs are not some mysterious entity. It is simply a pairs trade. Not only that, a trader has fundamental pressures to drive one currency or the other. What is so hard about that?...
I don't have any qualms about the leverage... traders will consistently lose of they're losing traders and consistently win if they're winning traders. The leverage, if anything, just speeds up the process.

One way or another; a trader is likely to repeatedly and consistently lose everything for several years to the sharp edge of that sword... but if they weild it themselves they should be quite satisfied with how well it's been honed.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #490
  • May 26, 2021 11:15pm May 26, 2021 11:15pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I don't have any qualms about the leverage... traders will consistently lose of they're losing traders and consistently win if they're winning traders. The leverage, if anything, just speeds up the process. One way or another; a trader is likely to repeatedly and consistently lose everything for several years to the sharp edge of that sword... but if they weild it themselves they should be quite satisfied with how well it's been honed.
There is much to what you say, however, the OP is making a point. Leverage means little once a trader can make money, because they will not make poor decisions. Leverage, to the novice however, is a honey trap, and a broker in my mind should require a trader to earn their leverage, much like a prop firm. Of course, they will not make money this way. If had the power, I would start every new trader at 10:1 leverage, to be increased by ten with every month to a maximum of 50:1. Leverage is not meant to dig a trader out of bad trades, but to allow a good trader to push good trades. A broker who is actually concerned with the success of a trader would severely limit new traders. Your mileage may vary on this topic of course.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #491
  • May 27, 2021 1:39pm May 27, 2021 1:39pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} This is the flaw in your argument. On the one hand, you claim that >99% of traders who claim to make are liars, but on the the other, the one percent who do make money are simply lucky.
Explained it in this thread already how a simple mathematically model considering 3 months data from CFTC or 6 month data from ESMA, an efficient market and average spread and volume commissions exactly explains the numbers that brokers try to hide as good as they can.

You rarely catch a glimps of independent long term data from regulators, but all of them in existence confirm since 3 decades exactly the same results in praxis.

99% lose over 5 years, 1% can still win just based on luck. This statement is true for speculative, leveraged retail forex traders.
  • #492
  • May 27, 2021 1:49pm May 27, 2021 1:49pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} The leverage, if anything, just speeds up the process.
This statement is very wrong.... you should study the impact of leverage in a zero sum game.... it's just math. So no room for an opinion, just a mathematical fact.
  • #493
  • Jun 7, 2021 2:23am Jun 7, 2021 2:23am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Explained it in this thread already how a simple mathematically model considering 3 months data from CFTC or 6 month data from ESMA, an efficient market and average spread and volume commissions exactly explains the numbers that brokers try to hide as good as they can. You rarely catch a glimps of independent long term data from regulators, but all of them in existence confirm since 3 decades exactly the same results in praxis. 99% lose over 5 years, 1% can still win just based on luck. This statement is true for speculative, leveraged retail...
well just had a laugh going to post this on my thread
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #494
  • Jun 8, 2021 11:44am Jun 8, 2021 11:44am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} well just had a laugh going to post this on my thread
Aussi, how is the shovel seller business going, old man? Still feel entertained?
I love your selective P/L tables....

At least ASIC finally became active on leverage reduction. So you hopefully won't gamble away missie's cookie money...

Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers. But I fear a old pony doesn't want to learn new tricks, does it?

So how are the retailers led by your actions "selling the dream" in down under currently doing?
Holy sh.... even worse than expected...

https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...ing-in-1-week/

A bad week in March 2020..... this is the result:

As highlighted by ASIC, the client losses of $234 million net (or $428 million gross) are only based on 12 CFD providers, so the aggregate retail client losses across the industry for this single week may be higher.
“In fast-moving markets, prices can gap and losses can exceed the initial investment,” ASIC said in its report. “Many retail client accounts went into negative balance in the week commencing March 16. 5,448 retail client accounts of the 12 providers in the sample (or 2% of their retail client accounts that traded during that week) went into negative balance to the value of over -$4 million in aggregate. That is, they lost their initial investment and owed a further $4 million to the CFD providers.

Ohh boy, just in one fucking week.... so many from hero to zero.... guess they traded without stop loss....an who again doesn't use stop losses?

So keep your lies to your own thread. Cheers!
  • #495
  • Jun 8, 2021 4:13pm Jun 8, 2021 4:13pm
People lose at trading FX because they do not understand statistics and probabilities. Instead they trade off visuals at various times, during various sessions, so there is no baseline for statistics.
  • #496
  • Jun 8, 2021 5:26pm Jun 8, 2021 5:26pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Aussi, how is the shovel seller business going, old man? Still feel entertained? I love your selective P/L tables.... At least ASIC finally became active on leverage reduction. So you hopefully won't gamble away missie's cookie money... Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers. But I fear a old pony doesn't want to learn new tricks, does it? So how are the retailers led by your actions "selling the dream" in down under currently doing? Holy sh.... even worse...
What these reports show is:

1. Retail traders generally do not understand leverage, market risk, sector risk, or gap risk.
2. Retail traders are human, which means they abhor risk and prefer certainty. This is exactly backwards if you are a speculator.
3. Based on #2, retail traders do not cut losses.

You have yet to prove that retail FX is a negative sum game. What you have shown is that most new traders are bad.

I am not here to be combative, just playing devils advocate.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #497
  • Jun 8, 2021 5:34pm Jun 8, 2021 5:34pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Aussi, how is the shovel seller business going, old man? Still feel entertained? I love your selective P/L tables.... At least ASIC finally became active on leverage reduction. So you hopefully won't gamble away missie's cookie money... Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers. But I fear a old pony doesn't want to learn new tricks, does it? So how are the retailers led by your actions "selling the dream" in down under currently doing? Holy sh.... even worse...
It seems you don't know anything on how things work in forex you just selectively pick and choose the data you want to fit your bogus ideas, and as far as my trading leverage never changed, i do not use a stop loss mate as you know I don't play the same game the brokers plays and if you learnt how to play their game you would be a winner, but you will never be a winner because you're a negative person and as far as lies go read what you write, i have shown over the years live trades the bad and good at least i put my foot forward and shown traders what I do, however your side of things are as you put it ""a negative sum game""
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #498
  • Jun 8, 2021 5:38pm Jun 8, 2021 5:38pm
Quoting DepthTrade
People lose at trading FX because they do not understand statistics and probabilities. Instead they trade off visuals at various times, during various sessions, so there is no baseline for statistics.
You are right mate I can quote stats and fig,s all day mate it does not affect my trading
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #499
  • Jun 9, 2021 1:49am Jun 9, 2021 1:49am
Hey, Hudi, nice thread! A collection (sum) of morons.Your provocative stand attracts denial losers like flies.
Addicts can't stand the truth. I wouldn't bother to challange them
And I would normally ban idiots who's saying "you will never be a winner because you're a negative person" or "People lose at trading FX because they do not understand statistics and probabilities" ...but you don't ! That makes it more fun. I'll come by more often
Member
  • #500
  • Jun 9, 2021 1:59am Jun 9, 2021 1:59am
Quoting TudorIoan
Hey, Hudi, nice thread! A collection (sum) of morons.Your provocative stand attracts denial losers like flies. Addicts can't stand the truth. I wouldn't bother to challange them And I would normally ban idiots who's saying "you will never be a winner because you're a negative person" or "People lose at trading FX because they do not understand statistics and probabilities" ...but you don't ! That makes it more fun. I'll come by more often
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
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