Does anyone knows the major countries US is trading with?
Perhaps, we can research and predict a "trade balance" by looking at individual country's trade balance sheets - IF they publish their sheets earlier than US.
We know China is the major trade partner... And it has been a one-way trade in favor of China.. How about other countries?
August- us has trade surplus
united arab emirates
australia
netherlands
hong kong
belgium
singapore
egypt
panama
bahamas
qatar August-us have trade deficit
china
japan
mexico
canada
germany
venezuela
malaysia
saudi arabia
nigeria
ireland August-top ten trading partners
canada
china
mexico
japan
germany
uk
south korea
taiwan
france
malaysia
Top ten countries above
65.27% of US imports
63.92% of US exports
Quoting BurgerKing
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Does anyone knows the major countries US is trading with?
Perhaps, we can research and predict a "trade balance" by looking at individual country's trade balance sheets - IF they publish their sheets earlier than US.
We know China is the major trade partner... And it has been a one-way trade in favor of China.. How about other countries?
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Commerzbank stated that they expect a lower trade balance defecit figure due to the drop in oil prices and a large us delivery of some jetliners. My thinking is that this should lead to a healthy spike but it should not have much follow through because the smart money knows these facts.
Commerzbank stated that they expect a lower trade balance figure due to the drop in oil prices and a large us delivery of some jetliners. My thinking is that this should lead to a healthy spike but it should not have much follow through because the smart money knows these facts.
Ignored
China has been purchasing a lot of Boeings lately. They ordered about 15 777s (as against A380) last month October. If im not mistaken, they ordered about same number last August too.
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Jungle Lion posted that he heard rumors of a weaker than normal number but he did not say his source. Since there are more details to Commerzbank's statement I will cut and paste it.
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This is from FXCM:US Trade Balance (SEP) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EDT)
Consensus: -$66.0B Previous: -$69.9B
Outlook: The US trade deficit likely narrowed through the month of September, as a falling energy bill led imports lower for the world’s largest economy. This forecast should come with a caveat, however, as market analysts previously used the same reasoning to call for an improved trade balance through August. Given that the deficit grew to an all-time high at $69.9 billion, many traders wondered how consensus estimates could be so far off the mark. Regardless, there is little reason to believe that the trade figure reached further records through the most recent observation period. Instead, crude oil’s sustained decline should limit further import growth and lead the net debit lower. One has to wonder whether markets will actually react to surprises, however, as implied volatilities continue to set new lows. Indeed, options traders have currently priced in one week volatility only slightly above Monday’s record-lows. It will likely take a substantial surprise in either direction to elicit volatile price moves in major world currencies.
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Quoting BurgerKing
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What do you mean "Weaker" than normal?
Thats the problem when talking with negative numbers; when yuo say "lower than -65B", mathematically it means -70B, -75B....
Ignored
When they say weak they are refering to the trade relationship. If you are selling more than you are buying that is strong. If you are buying more than you are selling that is weak. Any negative number means you are buying more than you are selling.
Thats the problem when talking with negative numbers; when yuo say "lower than -65B", mathematically it means -70B, -75B....
Ignored
Anyone knows the ratio of Oil imports to other imported goods?
Based on the last Retail Sales, pump sales accounts to 25% of the retail sales and with that brought Retails Sales down.
SO, if pump accounted to 25% of Retail Sales, and assuming that the ratio is the same on the International Trade, I assume that the importation cost would drop just as much... But of course US also produces its own fuel...
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[quote=BurgerKing]Anyone knows the ratio of Oil imports to other imported goods?
Based on the last Retail Sales, pump sales dropped by as much as 25% due mainly to lowered prices.
SO, if pump accounted to 25% of Retail Sales, and assuming that the ratio is the same on the International Trade, I assume that the importation cost would drop just as much... But of course US also produces its own fuel...[/QUOTE]
Yes of course, but we buy far more than we sell abroad.
Man, at 2 am this morning during london time, it seems that there was speculation for the weakness in the trade balance. WIth all these reports coming out saying that the trade balance might be negitive, it seems that it came after the fact that people trading in london time has already moved the market. I wish there could be a speculation that speculates prior to london trading so alot of peeps can get in. RIght now, i believe that news feeds and US traders/analysists are reacting to teh market in london times, which could be said that the price will be negitive. Which could also mean that the price might already been priced in the market.
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Quoting FXopportunist
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Jungle Lion posted that he heard rumors of a weaker than normal number but he did not say his source. Since there are more details to Commerzbank's statement I will cut and paste it.
well i swooped in for my 30 pips got in on 2nd push at 9013 on the gbp, would have gotten in earlier but market moved pretty fast on 2nd push from 20s to low teens i guess. I screwed myself on the BOE this morn i stayed in untill it went all the way back up to BE so i dint make any money on that one but i was 20 pips ahead on that one at some point . The market dwindled that away to 2 pips....... of coarse the market went back to 10 to 20 pips posative if i would have stayed in lol, all in all good pip day anyone else have a good strategy on trhis news event? anyone starddle this bad boy ?
Ghost
Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
Guess I should pay more attention to technicals than listening to rumor's .
Ignored
Welcome to the conversation JL.
If you scroll back through the posts you will see the fundy analysis I had cut and pasted was pretty acurate. I usually consider the source before I lend too much credibility.
