EURUSD only

Daily S/R Levels for Monday (based on Tuesday)

Since in my methodology the Tuesday S/R levels are important for Monday I am planning to keep this tradition of implementing "next day's" levels to understand current day better..

1. 1.2187 is support area with highest importance.. While candles open above this level, bulls have the upper hand..
2. However 1.2211 area is currently acting as strong resistance and that zone can be extended up to 1.2238.. It won't be easy for bulls to break this..
3. If bears can pass 1.2187 they still have to break 1.2143 for deeper lows and that's not the end.. So it won't be easy for bears too to achieve deeper lows.. Catch 22 situation..
4. To trade successfully one must constantly pay attention to intraday pa whenever price comes closer to these levels.. I will mostly stick to my H1 chart but M15 could help as well.. Tricky phase for sure.. So trade safe and beware of fake breakouts!

I hope it helps

LOL

Virgo Beats

completely agree.

spending some time over the long weekend with charts. Care to elaborate on what you found between last post and this one? I see the moves down to 2115 area based on the high spike and dip on 5/13-14 but not seeing the push all the way back up without a lot of noise in between. Guess it really doesn’t matter what the noise is as long as buying at 2115 area with a tp of 2250+ and ideally buying any nice dips within the noise.

spent a little time last night and today - and will continue to do so - looking over my trades the last couple months. My brokers software provides some basic analytics like trade disposition - how long I am in a losing trade over winning trade - which was very informative. focusing in on scaling in my positions in a trade like that buying as close to 2115 as possible with a tp of 2250 then buying each retrace I can on the way up. I known this is all sort of fundamental and elementary to most here but just felt good to actually see the numbers working. Looking back at my history and seeing not only where it worked but also the places where I could have been many times more profitable on a trade if I had just done that. In some cases 5x more so with no more risk involved. I had the margin sitting there and in profits why not use it.

My disposition by the way us like 1.75 which is good per them meaning I cut my losers early and let the winners run. But that I realize is skewed because the are counting a winning trade as even a +1 pip where I was underwater for 12 hours and down from minute one. I guess end of the day it’s still a winner though. But it does throw off the number for sure.

looking forward to the week already

EURUSD broke both ways last week only to sit back in the range again. Will this week brink it above the last highs towards 2300, or NFP will break its plans and move it closer to the lows around 2100. The trend looks up yet, but still end of Month flows and good news from US may slow down its advance.

Sorry to bring it to you but we need more data to imagine better.. Check out all 18 similar cases based on DAILY chart compared to what we have now and try to see that there is no specific pattern to this.. Yes there are some rare cases (4 cases out of 18 which I marked with red borders) where it does do what you just pointed out but most cases are not like that.. Behavior is all over the place.. One thing for sure: Intraday wise there is some resistance around my red Linear Weighted MA 6 line (level: -50)... I marked the ones with a red dot where red line resists and forces price down.. But even those are only 6 out of 18 (33% chance)...

Long story short: Let's stick to the intraday signs before making bold decisions.. No rush.. we will figure out what this pair intends to do

*The only worth to mention behavior these wicks show is that in most cases (still not all) price tries to attack previous highest high.. In some cases bulls succeed, in others they fall short and in rare cases they don't even attempt.. We could say the chances for a potential attack is higher than 60%.. But we still don't know when exactly the bull attack could start.. So again: It is best to wait for more data..

H4 Status Update

1. For now we should see supportive pa around 1.2180 and 1.2191.. But while price stays below 1.2204 we can not be sure if bulls are winning.. Monday could become a boring day with a tight range until some decision is made..
2. AB=CD still seems to be in tact but since TP1 was achieved there is also no guarantee that TP2 and TP3 could play out.. Better to go step by step..
3. Notice that my black wma-12 line is flattening out which could signal a choppy sideways phase where price gets stuck inside no mans land for a day or longer.. Time will tell..
4. One last thing: If bulls attack 1.2245 area that could become the completion point of a potential bearish cypher which then could bring price back down..

I hope it helps

The Day After Tomorrow it mostly returns to usa close stockmarketprice = 1.2193 as USA and UK are not present tomorrow. .

Based on H4, I couldn't come up with a better channel.. This is the one that fits best to most of the turning points..

Now based on this channel these are my thoughts for the first 12 to 16 hours after market opening..

1. 1.2201/16 area is main resistance and target that bulls are aiming to break! All eyes on this zone!!!
2. 1.2168 area is nearest support and main target for bears to retest lows!
3. If bulls win, next target would be 1.2249 area..
4. If bears break 1.2168 the crucial last support inside channel would be: 1.2121/36 area..

I hope it helps

a lot of noise in between. Dailies haven’t completed a correction to 1.2340. I will Still b trading both sides if market but may b inclined to hold on to failed longs. Eg. I’m currently short targetting 1.2130

This isn't directly about EUR/USD,
but the Euro can be manipulated the same way due to the FXE etf.

https://forexfore.blog/2021/05/30/kiss-amc/

Mequite Thrilled

The channel in 4hrs.

Trading Plan

I strongly believe it'll touch the 100 - 1.2046

Nic, you asked me about my Fundamental view. I dont have anything on particular. But why don't pitch in every now and then about the Fundamentals on ongoing basis, we can discuss and analyze.

I gotta tell you this, i dont trade based on Fundamentals but i'd love to be in the good market conversations.

100% agree. But it can 1.22300 zone before drop to that zone. Roads are empty to downtown Then it's going to make HH

Ata, thank you very much for spending your time on this, and sharing your thoughts on the topic! Highly appreciated indeed!
I am particularly interested in the institution of the tiniest trades. Trading points instead of pips, trading at the level of ticks.
I will never be a long-term trader for certain. I am particularly interested in the (perhaps naïve) idea of making 3.6 thousand trades a day. Meaning none of the trades will last more than a minute. Or perhaps they will, but only in case they keep raising profit with two ticks out of three or something. Of course, I expect most of the trades only lasting few seconds, the rest of the time shall be dedicated to opening the trade the right time, i.e. upon two to four following dipping/raising ticks or something. Part of it will be investigating a lot in terms of stochastics and the behaviour of PA. I know it is now just blah blah, but basically, I just think it will be benefitial to dig into this programming thing. As you have mentioned, it can help a trader in multiple ways. I am certain that an in-depth understanding of the trading system is key to getting better as a trader as well. And that's it. Thanks again!