Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

@ T Oops sorry pressed the dislike in error ! - blame Billy. My favourite Eric song is Badge.

Just gets better and better.

The highlighted bit is what I have been trying to say all this time.

That I'm looking at DAX now is a bit of a coincidence. I used to look at the DAX more in the past.

Thanks.

I checked the DAX and FTSEE for both breakout ranges, the "Not the Billy Bar, 07:45-08:00" and the "BillyBar, 08:00-08:15".

There are quiet a lot of fails. From a first impression scrolling back manually both charts back to the beginning of the year that wouldn´t work out too well.

Looking for either a fixed risk/reward ratio of 1:2 like TP=200 Points (20 Pips), SL=100 Points (10 Pips) or using the opposite end of the range as SL and look for a minimum profit target but then having a 2,3,4,5 times higher risk. Here the win rate would be again far better for sure but the losers would eat up all profits easily.

Morning, when u say checked, what do u mean exactly? How and what stats do you keep?

I will need to look at my own stats to confirm, but I'm pretty sure a 10 pips stop loss on the DAX is very tight. You had a spread of 5 the other day, that means your stop loss is only 2x the spread. Also 20 pips on the DAX is not the same as 20 pips on the FTSE.

Why choose 20 pips and not say 60 pips? (Legitimate question)

Good morning. Regarding to the spread. Yes, i wrote about 5 but that was wrong. Average spread on DAX i have 0.5-1.2 Pips. Same for FTSE.

I checked for for two options on both instruments (DAX & FTSE) on the BillyBar and NTBB.

Option A) SL = 10, TP = 20,
Option B) TP = 5, SL = Opposite Low/High of the signal bar/range.

I only manually looked over it without taking exact stats but roughly checked for the performance and it didn't seemed to produce better results than the BillyBar for GBP/USD would have done, even not for the latest weeks where Billy says GPB/USD wouldn´t act as usual.

I am currently trying to import tick data to a copied MT4 installation so i will be able to run some better back tests here which seems to be much easier to gather such kind of statistics instead of having to manual scroll the charts and writing down numbers to Excel.

I do not think any of them, no matter what range specification and fixed risk/reward criteria applied, will produce any longer term profitable results out of the box. I mean that would pretty much come close the holey grail otherwise...

So without any own judgment and intuition as part of the trading process it probably would not produce satisfying results but not sure?

I then looked again for other "strategies" over the weekend but couldn't find anything yet with the potential to actual WORK for me where work means it works in terms of producing profitable results after x period trading it with the same discipline and entry/exit criteria every day. Fitting my personality, trading style. Not having to gamble my money with hedging my trades any longer and then not knowing how to come out of them or fix them else where having no plan for.

These open range breakout triggers discussed in the topic here AT LEAST provide me with that kind of objective criteria for entering or exiting a trade. So something where i do not have the headache of having to draw or find something on a chart in the moment that can be then seen differently each new day and especially then looks different again as soon as you start to switch over to a different time frame and/or do a multiple time frame analyse which most of these strategies further often relies on.

I then also looked at all the institutional trading stuff hyped so much lately, like Supply & Demand, "order-blocks" or similar. I think the "z-lines" are quiet similar. I mean i understand these concepts, there is nothing much to say about it, but hell, no single person out there manual trading like that way (proven successfully) is able to show you the full plan. Meaning, how they really manage to trade it day in day out, having a clear routine, risk management and all that ahead of times for it too.

I follow this one guy on YouTube for some time now, (Tom H.) a danish retail trader, not only claims to do it professionally but also seems to be ablle to make a life from his trading without having to sell you courses or ebooks. He is very transparent about what he is doing but i was not able so far to make any use of his teachings/informations for me personally. It looks to me he is trading pure price action patterns on naked charts, whenever he's around. So again, no clear defined set of rules/conditions. Probably with enough experience thats the best way to trade, idk. However it doesn´t help me too much at the moment. He also seems to often add to his open positions and holding trades often for longer than a a single day. Far different from trading a specific strategy and calliing it a day once reached a specific target or willing allowed risk.

What might help, when you go through a backtest like that, is write down a few more stats. For example, the size of the range and the maximum positive excursion of a trade. That way you can make a frequency distribution. You can easily see what TP could be worthwhile. Might be a little bit more work at first, but you can do a lot more with the information.

You can still trade Z lines (and others) and have objective entry criteria, like I have shown before. The way I see supply demand/zlines, or whatever u want to call it, is that it gives you context, bias and a potential area to trade from/towards. But if you don't see merit in it then drop it

As far as your objective entry criteria goes, no matter how you enter a trade, wether it is with 27 indicators on your chart or naked, objective of subjective, you enter the market at a price and that price is always represented as a line. Price will at some point move away from that line. The market does not care how you entered. From my own observations, what happens next and how you handle what happens next makes the difference.

Just my two cents, meant well, as always

Thanks for your strong help. Yes. I did all the stats you talk of for the BillyBar. The +5 Pips is a good take profit target to keep the win rate high. I think Billy didn´t come with it for nothing. My own stats however do not include any further buffer than the raw 5 Pips counted from high/low. I think Billy's statistics here are collected for a minimum target of 10 Pips. I am not sure about his win rate he has here, i guess it is slightly worse than mine.

I get something like 60-70% on average to hit the +5 Pips within the first break of the range. I count stats for (if that fails) too. So if the first break fails the second break following up for the same day then provides a 80-90% chance to hit the +5 with such second opposite break. And approx. a +95% if both failed to hit the +5 after the third opposite break (So first low break failed, second high break failed, third low break again = normally is good).

My first thoughts were therefor in case of a recovery plan to play with position size increasement. BUT as i want to be able to call it a day once reached the +5 Pips i take the first entry at a rather high position size. (Still far not high enough so it would provide me with a life).

So lets say it is 10 lots on the initital trade to make $500 gross from the +5 TP. If the first break fails at a range of 20 Pips, i am down -$2000. To recover this by looking for +5 again on the next break my trade size would already have to increase to 40 lots (that would be only to be back to break even gross not net). But after two consecutive fails here to reach the +5 Pips on that break at a range of 20 Pips you would already have to increase heavy. A second fail of the -20 Pips again (price travels to the opposite end of the range again) you are down another -$8k. To recover that with the third break looking forward to finally hit the +5 TP you need to increase to ... well do the maths.

We just had two days in a row where the BillyBar failed to break for the +5. Yesterday and today. So increasement today if done that would have made a nice hole into the account. I do not have extended stats about how many consecutive losses/wins in a row there would have been in the past. I think someone mentioned a 8 losses in a row screnario here some time ago. I am however not sure for what time period that was looked back.

So i think my plan here to simply increase in position size within the next action/s is crap.

The next plan i had would be to keep the loss on the failed break "locked" e.g hedging it like Billy says he does. However if you then do not have a GURANTEE to come out at that trade for break even (or at least have a freaking high chance/probability of doing so) with what ever your next action/s would be. Well, then it isn´t any different/better than simply closing the trade, waiting for the next signal and placing on the next trade. Having that bigger loss in your account you then need 5-6 more positive trades with wins of +5 again to have it balanced out / fixed without increasing size.

So, and regarding to the different "fixed" risk/reward ratios to get an overall better picture WITHOUT having to do these "fixes" my statistics so far taken for the BillyBar or NTBB didn´t gathered any successfull results. I tried with 10 Pips SL, 20 Pips TP like said. It wasn´t any better. I then tested the same settings on the DAX, FTSE back to beginning of this year but also didn´t produce any profitable results for me.

With the z-lines or the "institutional trading stuff" i mentioned, like supply/demand or "order blocks" or what ever fancy terms lately people gave it, my main conflict is the huge discretionary involved, and that i have no idea how to pre-plan things here. I guess as you here trade what you find and see in the moment you would have to be in front of the charts all day long or even have to trade multiple instruments to find enough setups. You might argue different here, however if you are not even able to spot these things on the chart (i tried hard for some weeks now) it is probably not a good strategy for me. Its all to "vaque" for my taste. I like numbers, maths, stats and things that don´t change if you switch from M5 chart to H1 or what ever. This is pure brain f#ck for me then and i don´t know how people are able to trade for a lifestyle like that, that will at least pay the bills. I mean i am looking for something to make consistent INCOME, not growing my account. I have enough money in my account. I dont need to grow it, that would be a total different game. You have all time of life then to only pick the best setups with no goals, no pressure to reach something.

Maybe things are getting lost in translation, but it would seem you are missing the point of the help that is being offered.

I'm confused as to wether you have or haven't collected the stats in the way I mentioned. You say you did collect these stats and in the next sentence you say you only collected the +5 stats for the BB and the 10stop/20tp for DAX/FTSE.

Have you collected the MPE and made a frequency distribution?

Write down how many points the break travelled. For example; today's Billybar the first break had a MPE of about 0.5, the second break had a MPE of about 24. The range was 17. You can't arbitrarily choose 20 pips. Even if it works one one instrument does not mean it will work on another.

I wrote an elaborate response to the rest of your post, but decided not to post it as it is a repetition of what has been said before over and over again.

oh my god. this thread has been hijacked...

Not for long we'll be back to normal soon.

Wizz has tried and this says it all - 'but decided not to post it as it is a repetition of what has been said before over and over again'

I'll get Lem posting again. Don't know where Billy is but he'll turn up.

Horses, music, pivots. All in a days work !

Easy afternoon so far. Will it bounce off yesterday's low ?

Time for a chill out session

As a long time lurker I thought this may raise a smile

What is the difference of having the stats collected in the way you mentioned than looking for a min amount of point in distance? I told you that i am looking to make +5 on the break as well as daily target. If the first break then travels on for a 30 more pips, i don't care because my trade is exited and done. If the first break fails and the second break then makes more pips than the +5, that might be interested to know, and yes i took stats here, and no it won't cover the losses you get.

All this has nothing to do with the questions and FACTS i posted by the way.

Something different today : )

Peaceful today

That's outstanding.

That would be great as an answer phone ring tone, lol.

Happy Friday!



Have great weekend all