Attachments: EURUSD only

EURUSD only

#132,521
Edited 10:30am May 19, 2021 10:06am | Edited 10:30am

fxsport
Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts

I'm frankly stumped by the PA in EU today.

I had to put on my fortune teller hat and this is what popped out....

Consolidation until the FED minutes at 14:00 EST at which time the FED only confirms what it's members have been saying - no raising rates, cheap dollar.

Markets pop on the news.....

The only problem is that pop noise....is it a pop/explosion upward OR is it a pop of a balloon and the air coming out?

Time will tell but personally I'm looking to ride the pop up to the 1.23XXXX levels.

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EDITED: After reviewing ATA's and my 4-hour chart I'm leery of any long WITHOUT a pullback to the 1.2170-1.2180 area but I don't feel comfortable shorting now until it gets to 1.2180ish because it could just blast off....Sitting and NOT BUYING (at this time)

...because you never know - until you do!

#132,522
May 19, 2021 10:28am May 19, 2021 10:28am

nic9man
Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,175 Posts

Quoting fxsport

Disliked

{quote} You are correct but I believe pre-mature. Wait until the Dow/Nasdaq loose 8% or more THEN the USD will skyrocket (temporarily until Risk On happens again)

Ignored

Why should they, central banks are dovish and economies improving. In any case it might herald a big USD short trade if the USD would not work as a safe haven any more. Let's see.

Another day, another dollar.

#132,523
May 19, 2021 10:37am May 19, 2021 10:37am

mtako
Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts

Quoting nic9man

Disliked

{quote} Why should they, central banks are dovish and economies improving. In any case it might herald a big USD short trade if the USD would not work as a safe haven any more. Let's see.

Ignored

I like your conversations about the fundamentals. Will understand it all one day, but one thing at a time. I JUST got the "dovish vs hawkish" definitions ! Baby steps

Just closed my closest position, 2218. Too close AND too close TO news time

If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!

#132,524
May 19, 2021 10:41am May 19, 2021 10:41am

raghu4134
| Joined May 2020 | Status: Trader | 3 Posts

PA in EU does not show any change in uptrend, but I suspect DXY is forming a reversal. ANy thoughts??

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bmPNKwvE.png

#132,525
May 19, 2021 10:43am May 19, 2021 10:43am

corongumet
Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 1,483 Posts | Online Now

Daily candle really important.

#132,526
May 19, 2021 11:06am May 19, 2021 11:06am

mtako
Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts

Quoting raghu4134

Disliked

PA in EU does not show any change in uptrend, but I suspect DXY is forming a reversal. ANy thoughts?? https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bmPNKwvE.png

Ignored

We all have our charts in front of us and can be objective, within the limits of our openness, observation, experience and knowledge. I never try to convince anyone, as I know how limited I personally am.

But if I may give my half a cent (dont want to make this fill the whole browser

) :

For this week, without a good trading period under 2190, bulls still have the trend + strong momentum intact.

Lets not forget the last +month of trending and steady momentum.

Probability is rising every day for it to go test the +3years high levels, -+2320-2550

They still have main control, so no possible reversal in my poor sight, except for today, but now stuck midway and facing big news, so not the best time to analyze anything intraday, for me...

Intraday, bears have had their say, but we have gone back in time. Same time, same level : YESTERDAY

And to help get in the right mood for a peaceful mind in the face of crazy news tick dancing time :

Inserted Video

If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!

#132,527
May 19, 2021 11:50am May 19, 2021 11:50am

josip
Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,290 Posts

update
so folks, we go down

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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC

#132,528
May 19, 2021 12:32pm May 19, 2021 12:32pm

mtako
Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts

Finished my prep. Planned for worst case scenarios. Countdown from 30 !

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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!

#132,529
May 19, 2021 12:49pm May 19, 2021 12:49pm

fxpipper
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 805 Posts

Quoting nic9man

Disliked

{quote} Hahaha, were you inspired by Ata's video?

Ignored

No I totally missed Ata's video, (I've since watched it and it's hilarious).

I was actually kind of serious about where I think the price will go in my projection. Just having a little bit of fun trying to be a seer...but I do think this pair is in for a deeper correction than what we saw in the first week of May, and I'm not the only one who thinks that. Of course I believe it'll still end up near 1.2400...but probably not in a straight line like a lot of people think, it never seems to work that way. It really all depends on what the DXY does.

#132,530
May 19, 2021 12:59pm May 19, 2021 12:59pm

Wavegarrick
Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 4,360 Posts

Hi Guys,
I am getting subtle and I mean very subtle bearish hints, I have time on my side. From the 20th to month end could see corrections or reversals, I am in with shorts with 25 pip stops, but will not bet the farm on it.

Trade safe,
Cheers.

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Trade to trade another day

#132,531
May 19, 2021 1:09pm May 19, 2021 1:09pm

Kyuu
| Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Trader | 732 Posts

Just added to my long at 1.21736 , was there any news for this sudden move?

#132,532
May 19, 2021 1:18pm May 19, 2021 1:18pm

Akunigeria
| Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Trader | 18 Posts

Quoting Kyuu

Disliked

Just added to my long at 1.21736 , was there any news for this sudden move?

Ignored

Yes FOMC

#132,533
May 19, 2021 1:19pm May 19, 2021 1:19pm

Kyuu
| Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Trader | 732 Posts

Quoting Akunigeria

Disliked

{quote} Yes FOMC

Ignored

Ok thanks, for some reason it wasn’t showing any news on forex factory , it only now came up for me as an orange envelope. Weird

#132,534
May 19, 2021 1:22pm May 19, 2021 1:22pm

mtako
Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts

Bears got what they came for... Now maybe its a go with enough closings above 2190 !

If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!

#132,535
May 19, 2021 1:22pm May 19, 2021 1:22pm

Wavegarrick
Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 4,360 Posts

Quoting Wavegarrick

Disliked

Hi Guys, I am getting subtle and I mean very subtle bearish hints, I have time on my side. From the 20th to month end could see corrections or reversals, I am in with shorts with 25 pip stops, but will not bet the farm on it. Trade safe, Cheers. {image}

Ignored

Spring-loaded response just after my post

. Anyway, I stay humble and I know the market could take me out 3 fold.
Cheers.

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Trade to trade another day

#132,536
May 19, 2021 1:33pm May 19, 2021 1:33pm

nic9man
Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,175 Posts

Quoting Kyuu

Disliked

Just added to my long at 1.21736 , was there any news for this sudden move?

Ignored

FED minutes revealed that some FOMC members would find it appropriate to begin the tapering discussion in one of the next FED meetings if the economy were to continue on the path of quick recovery.
Not sure if this really is a big surprise, at least one of them (Kaplan) said already several times that he wants to begin to taper soon. Many others don’t. But it is the first hint towards the beginning of thinking about thinking about tapering.

Another day, another dollar.

#132,537
May 19, 2021 1:50pm May 19, 2021 1:50pm

fxpipper
Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 805 Posts

Quoting fxpipper

Disliked

I have a sell limit set at 2242, which may or may not get triggered during the Asian session.

Ignored

Still holding this short...staring at some decent profit, but I am targeting the 2125 area if I have the nerve to keep it open. Will most likely punk out early and exit.

#132,538
May 19, 2021 1:51pm May 19, 2021 1:51pm

mtako
Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts

mmmmm Monday s very tough highs ! Deja-vu ! Bears better take it under and keep it there !

If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!

#132,539
May 19, 2021 2:00pm May 19, 2021 2:00pm

mtako
Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts

Quoting nic9man

Disliked

{quote} FED minutes revealed that some FOMC members would find it appropriate to begin the tapering discussion in one of the next FED meetings if the economy were to continue on the path of quick recovery. Not sure if this really is a big surprise, at least one of them (Kaplan) said already several times that he wants to begin to taper soon. Many others don’t. But it is the first hint towards the beginning of thinking about thinking about tapering.

Ignored

they already knew it and also the big movers ... you know what is going on.. Very interesting thanks a lot Nic!

If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!