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  • #131,781
  • May 7, 2021 9:50am May 7, 2021 9:50am
My long now pretty much at the previous high for the day. Recouped my 2 impulsive trades plus some ok pips.

For those who long ago passed my mentality and experience level - given the scenario today would you just book the win take your ball and go home for the week? This is my classic moment where I could exit at a nice spot vs staying in and seeing the position erode 30-60%

Especially with say the sentiment and of Ata saying possible good short @ 2160/80. Or maybe just move stop up real close? My experience there is when I do that I’m always like 3 pips too far from where it wouldn’t get triggered and then keeps heading in right direction - me getting stopped then watching it move again.

love it all but so frustrating at times. I doubt my decision making process and still trading out of emotion in many cases
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #131,782
  • May 7, 2021 10:03am May 7, 2021 10:03am
Quoting Monk
My long now pretty much at the previous high for the day. Recouped my 2 impulsive trades plus some ok pips. For those who long ago passed my mentality and experience level - given the scenario today would you just book the win take your ball and go home for the week? This is my classic moment where I could exit at a nice spot vs staying in and seeing the position erode 30-60% Especially with say the sentiment and of Ata saying possible good short @ 2160/80. Or maybe just move stop up real close? My experience there is when I do that I’m always like...
I dont believe there is one best way of dealing with this. It depends on too many factors, both on your end and on how the price is moving.

But would it be possible to close some of it to cover your previous days loses, and leaving the rest at BE?

If not, at this point, I would personally tighten the SL at 2135. Bears can still have their say and bring it back down to 2110.

Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but no matter what happens, dont forget you will get more great opportunities next week also.

Good luck and hope it helps.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,783
  • May 7, 2021 10:20am May 7, 2021 10:20am
Thanks as always Mtako - i had moved the stop to 2130. I’m always open to others past experience especially when it’s something like “oh yea I used to go through the same thing and now this is how I think about it” - this over the last month or so I’ve been active on here lot of the cobwebs from being out of the market for so long are starting to clear. Not that I really new what I was doing years ago. Hoping to be able to recognize the patterns of how and why I make trading decisions and then apply that to what I’m discovering on how eur/usd moves. Like a dance I guess.

For example 2150 was the highest high in a while 4/21 I think and my chart shows it exactly as 2150. My thinking is that a rejection of that would be pretty swift if it did happen OR if broken would pop like a spring. That’s what I’d assume would happen. But i don’t really know enough to be able to pull together several other factors which would support one of those two options. I guess the 3rd would be it gets stuck with in a 20 pip range around that for 3 days and becomes a spring winding to pop up (or down).

for now letting it ride - and hoping for some winding of the spring to pop towards end of the day / week as one last push. Then maybe get in “early” on a short for some retrace beginning of the week

edit: meant to answer your question about closing some of it - my trade sizes usually start out at like 10-15k (.1 / .15 of lot) it occasionally .25 but rarely. At most I will have total open of 40k. The biggest drawdowns I let myself get into are say 60 pips on a .1 or .15 trade. Most of my trades I’m closing out at say a 30 pip lost and that’s usually after having tried to wait and nurse it back to be - often getting almost to be again then Not booking a smaller loss only to have price move against me and end up down +30 again lol.

so closing out say .1 of the .25 I have open is for sure an option. But at the levels I’m at makes more sense to just hold it. Or does it? Maybe I need to get in the habit of closing partially even at these levels so when I AM trading “lots” I’m trained to do so
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #131,784
  • May 7, 2021 10:36am May 7, 2021 10:36am
This looks a bit like a rising wedge to me intraday, think I sell some of the excess longs I bought at 1.2105..
Another day, another dollar.
  • #131,785
  • May 7, 2021 10:39am May 7, 2021 10:39am
Quoting Monk
Thanks as always Mtako - i had moved the stop to 2130. I’m always open to others past experience especially when it’s something like “oh yea I used to go through the same thing and now this is how I think about it” - this over the last month or so I’ve been active on here lot of the cobwebs from being out of the market for so long are starting to clear. Not that I really new what I was doing years ago. Hoping to be able to recognize the patterns of how and why I make trading decisions and then apply that to what I’m discovering on how eur/usd moves....

You got the best entry you could under these conditions. Very well done mate !

Volatility has not stopped growing for 4 hours now, which is pretty much around the maximum I usually see.

It managed to hold on to momentum, also to above average duration. Pay attention to how weak were the bears moves in the last 2 days, in comparison with the bulls. Hence my number of momentum trade setups doubling these last hours.

For now, as crazy as that seems, it has no more calculatable limits, and a close above 2150 today combined with a follow through above it next week will be an even stronger sign the bulls are back in charge for the longer run.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,786
  • May 7, 2021 10:40am May 7, 2021 10:40am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Why do you think there will be a sell off? What in the charts is indicating that to you? I'm curious - really
Well. Not the charts but the blowout on its own. When there is a lot of profit for the taking in a short time usually it happens.
  • #131,787
  • May 7, 2021 10:41am May 7, 2021 10:41am
Quoting nic9man
This looks a bit like a rising wedge to me intraday, think I sell some of the excess longs I bought at 1.2105..
so you’d be just closing out open positions and booking the profits now opening new shorts?
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #131,788
  • May 7, 2021 10:44am May 7, 2021 10:44am
Quoting Monk
{quote} so you’d be just closing out open positions and booking the profits now opening new shorts?
No I don't open shorts, I have a long term target of 1.28 and until then I just constantly try to grow my long exposure by managing my longs (trying to sell some high and buy back more lower). In this case my long exposure grew to big today, so I reduced some to make some free cash, just in case it comes back to 1.21, one never knows. But generally I think today will shoot of a movement to much higher levels.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #131,789
  • May 7, 2021 10:48am May 7, 2021 10:48am
Quoting nic9man
This looks a bit like a rising wedge to me intraday, think I sell some of the excess longs I bought at 1.2105..
Very unlikely one will be confirmed, but who knows ! Wouldnt be the first and it would be nice as I know how much you like them!!

I personally, right now, and under this fire, would not consider any shorts or closings of longs over 2140.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,790
  • May 7, 2021 10:50am May 7, 2021 10:50am
Think there is a chance of a temporary rebound from 1.2175
Another day, another dollar.
  • #131,791
  • May 7, 2021 10:51am May 7, 2021 10:51am
Quoting mtako
{quote} Very unlikely one will be confirmed, but who knows ! Wouldnt be the first and it would be nice as I know how much you like them!! I personally, right now, and under this fire, would not consider any shorts or closings of longs over 2140.
Yes, same boat, I just have a too huge position on...
Another day, another dollar.
  • #131,792
  • May 7, 2021 11:00am May 7, 2021 11:00am
1.2185-1.2210 possible bounce, though i don't think it will be much.
1.2256-78 might stall a bit more. Tomorrow perhaps
Don't mind me.. i'm crazy
  • #131,793
  • May 7, 2021 11:01am May 7, 2021 11:01am
Quoting nic9man
Think there is a chance of a temporary rebound from 1.2175
2175 would actually be one of my yesterdays shared momentum trades 2nd TP!


WOW! Minus 30min about an hour before news occurred, it is going on a 10th hour of volatility growth ! Long time no see !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,794
  • May 7, 2021 11:12am May 7, 2021 11:12am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Just went long at 1.2103..
Congrats for taking the "Elfmeter".

Stupid me got greedy and switched the assest class.
Who does not want to hear, has to feel...or something like that...
Ouch
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #131,795
  • May 7, 2021 11:14am May 7, 2021 11:14am
Speaking of which, volatility decreased over 30minutes for the first time in all those hours. This usually happens much earlier. But they are done dancing .

Now is the real moment of truth.

"I am far away enough from my stops, volatility is down, can at last accept setups again" ..He says, as the wondrous sun sets.

If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,796
  • May 7, 2021 11:31am May 7, 2021 11:31am
Quoting jdtown99
{quote} Sell signal remains active if my weekly resistance of 1.20649 holds. It is certainly getting testing. Good opportunity for me to add small sell positions. Can add bigger sell positions if I see a clear bounce off 1.20649. Resisting urge to try and predict when bears will run and make the mistake of getting in too early. There is a possibility bears might not run at all.
Thankfully I resisted temptation to sell yesterday seeing that 1.20649 wasn't strong. But, there is strong resistance at 1.21669 that is being tested now. This is the sell setup I was looking for. The previous dip helped me clear my previous sell positions which is also great and worked in my favor. I have now added sell positions.

Sell: 1.2162
SL: 40 pips
Profit: Open

Break below 1.21166 next week will validate a bear run.
  • #131,797
  • May 7, 2021 11:45am May 7, 2021 11:45am
From here until market close I will try to sell up-swings and attacks towards 1.2160...
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #131,798
  • May 7, 2021 11:48am May 7, 2021 11:48am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
From here until market close I will try to sell up-swings and attacks towards 1.2160...
sir where we be your stop loss
  • #131,799
  • May 7, 2021 11:51am May 7, 2021 11:51am
Stop out at 2150 and now flat. Of course the FOMO is me wishing I’d closed at 2160+ and gone short and heavy lol.

hope everyone ended up positive for the week or at least even. The last couple weeks I’ve almost dig myself out of a hole I created 3 weeks ago in about 2 days of stupidity.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #131,800
  • May 7, 2021 11:51am May 7, 2021 11:51am
Quoting kingsleynwan
{quote} sir where we be your stop loss
I will roughly set my mental stop to 1.2190.. but I expect price to stay below 1.2179 today.. If volume drops and we got stuck short around 1.2150/60 I will be prepared to close my entry with loss because next week market could open with a bullish gap! Always careful on Fridays!

Anyway... I also will trade long if I see support around 1.2136 area..
Focus only on what truly matters!
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MysticNic