Focus only on what truly matters!
- #131,721
- May 7, 2021 4:01am May 7, 2021 4:01am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,259 Posts
- #131,724
- May 7, 2021 4:09am May 7, 2021 4:09am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,259 Posts
I think it is best to take a nap until NFP.. Later folks 
Zzzzzzzz....
Zzzzzzzz....
Focus only on what truly matters!
I hope this post gets accepted in time.
I'd like to present you a simple yet effective strategy, I'm sure you all heard about a hidden divergence. So. First pic is H4 purple lines indicating the hidden divergence. Aand I anticipate for a normal divergence to form in a couple of hrs on either H1 or M30(pic2H1). When that happens we can expect a fall. Correct me if I'm wrong please, I'm a rookie
I'd like to present you a simple yet effective strategy, I'm sure you all heard about a hidden divergence. So. First pic is H4 purple lines indicating the hidden divergence. Aand I anticipate for a normal divergence to form in a couple of hrs on either H1 or M30(pic2H1). When that happens we can expect a fall. Correct me if I'm wrong please, I'm a rookie
- #131,727
- May 7, 2021 5:00am May 7, 2021 5:00am
- Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,175 Posts
1110k is the shadow expectation. If the shadow expectation is met there will probably be a selloff followed by a slow but full retreat.
Another day, another dollar.
- #131,728
- May 7, 2021 5:06am May 7, 2021 5:06am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #131,729
- May 7, 2021 5:07am May 7, 2021 5:07am
- Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,129 Posts
I think it is best to take a nap until NFP.. Later folks
- #131,730
- Edited 5:33am May 7, 2021 5:10am | Edited 5:33am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 4,723 Posts
the important thing is the price pattern seen before the release of the NFP .... I don't know where the price will go because it's just an early indication .... I agree with what Ata-Turkoglu said, it will be very painful to buy at the top before NFP, if later the price goes down after NFP it will be difficult to go up again
what is clear is that today's price position is prone to manipulation .... market maker will continue to count on the release of NFP .... dominant buy then market maker is selling .... dominant sell then market maker is buying .... so be carefull ......... Today's release is a crucial moment .... Yellen wants to raise interest rates quickly ...... or will there be a spectacular moment today, where NFP is accompanied by charging interest rates, who knows, wait and see ... and I feel the price will be choppy to NFP ... it is better not to enter until the NFP is out and the direction of the price has been clearly detected
what is clear is that today's price position is prone to manipulation .... market maker will continue to count on the release of NFP .... dominant buy then market maker is selling .... dominant sell then market maker is buying .... so be carefull ......... Today's release is a crucial moment .... Yellen wants to raise interest rates quickly ...... or will there be a spectacular moment today, where NFP is accompanied by charging interest rates, who knows, wait and see ... and I feel the price will be choppy to NFP ... it is better not to enter until the NFP is out and the direction of the price has been clearly detected
The Average Discount Everything
- #131,731
- Edited 5:49am May 7, 2021 5:20am | Edited 5:49am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
{quote} Yes sure, that makes sense - but in case a 2mm number shows up we might see below 1.20s, so there is some known tailrisk here and someone who is very long can reduce a bit to be able to buy much lower just in case.
mmm 2nd espressoooo
There are many "in case" to take into consideration. And a move to below 2000 is unlikely, but yet I have planned for it.
Nonetheless, I find that you are absolutely right Nic. And that the worst is definitely the most important thing to consider and properly plan for.
I will not go into the details of my approach to risk in worst case scenarios, as it is dependent on too many factors... But maybe just share a few points I find crucial :
To add to what I have already shared in previous posts, I use a quite complex risk management plan for every worst case scenarios (unfilled stops, hedging usage... ), that depends on many factors and also on where price is shortly prior to the given news. In my current situation, it is still too early to activate my plan.
I ve been through over 15 years of these and have survived the worst black swans and that is not to brag, it is to say how important it is to take all possibilities into consideration, even the ones resembling the worst outcomes we have seen throughout the many years.
I have been sharing my careful approach for a while now and have mentioned around a week ago my becoming conservative with my longs until this correction ends or until IT ends my longs run. It was not for nothing. Frankly, I did not expect it to last that long.
If I get out, it is for a good reason, and if my longs survive, it is for an equally good reason.
You bring in some real good points about big news impact. And I have repeated again and again how much it is important to plan for the worse just as much, if not more, than for the best. Sorry for my rambling
. And I cant wait to see what this big mover has in store for us! I for one, have already taken in account what could happen and hope you all have to.I really enjoy hearing your views on fundamentals Nic!
P.S dont worry for me my friend and thanks again for the heads up, but the vast majority of my remaining longs are under 1930. So unless we get a real black swan, I will still get more than my usual returns. Also, as I said already, I do not use high leverage.... here I noticed most here seem to use high leverage, so I am no longer surprised to see many get really hurt from news spikes, and am often saddened by that, but I have not been one to be exposed to such dangers for years.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #131,732
- May 7, 2021 5:32am May 7, 2021 5:32am
- Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,175 Posts
Another day, another dollar.
- #131,733
- May 7, 2021 5:50am May 7, 2021 5:50am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 4,723 Posts
but we don't know the changes at the time of the NFP
The Average Discount Everything
- #131,734
- Edited 6:14am May 7, 2021 6:02am | Edited 6:14am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
Closed my long at 2088..was hoping for 2095 but good enough for me seeing NFP in a few hours. edit: couldn’t resist a small short from up here...wanting to makeup those few pips from 88 to 95 lol. Tight stop 2012 edit: closed the short @ 2076 now flat for NFP
I like to see you are very active Monk, as much as I am usually(I would have sold there to!), but now NEWS, wise to be flat.My momentum trade I shared with you would stay open even through NFP, as its main SL is based on a closed candle and crazy news wicks are nothing in the face of the unwavering momentum it relies on.
I for one am waiting on my usual volatility decrease before considering any setups. Probably wont be before a good half hour after the news.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #131,736
- May 7, 2021 6:18am May 7, 2021 6:18am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
Wow, could it be it is now starting to form a falling wedge or something?
! Nic loves those wedges ! Nice, but I dont trust any moves so close to these news.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #131,739
- May 7, 2021 7:03am May 7, 2021 7:03am
{quote} Yes, according to yesterdays OHCL these would have been todays goals. So maybe tomorrow, Friday? Today does not count, just too slow... {image}
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
- #131,740
- May 7, 2021 7:07am May 7, 2021 7:07am
- Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Trader | 1,129 Posts
{quote} Nic, wedge
SL hit, but no hard feelings about it. You win some, you lose some. As always.