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  • #131,661
  • May 6, 2021 1:27pm May 6, 2021 1:27pm
School is out for the summer
  • #131,662
  • May 6, 2021 1:34pm May 6, 2021 1:34pm
Quoting Monk
{quote} not sure what you meant by last part: if followed by a break of over 45m under 2848 and its over 2848?
I am guessing he was talking about 1.202848
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #131,663
  • May 6, 2021 1:37pm May 6, 2021 1:37pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Gotcha.. Good luck then *I am long from 1.2047.. Waiting for progress..
Moving SL to break even and calling it a day.. If I get stopped out so be it.. Volume is low anyway..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #131,664
  • May 6, 2021 1:46pm May 6, 2021 1:46pm
What’s everyone’s general rule for NFP? It’s been God like 8 years since I’ve “traded” on that day. Guessing all those with multiple long (as in length of time not market direction) term trades just hunker down and maybe adjust stops. But for those who have trades open for a day or the week whatever do you close them out prior to the announcement? Or just move stops out some maybe put in some crazy limit order in your favor and hope to catch the lightening strike in favor?

I looked back on the last few of them on a daily but didn’t really see any significant moves like I remember in the past - 50 to 150 pip whipsaw moves over 30 minutes or so and no clear direction till it seems to be too late to get in and take advantage.

thoughts on how current price levels will react to positive / negative numbers? How were the last few months of numbers and the price action?
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #131,665
  • May 6, 2021 1:48pm May 6, 2021 1:48pm
Quoting Monk
{quote} not sure what you meant by last part: if followed by a break of over 45m under 2848 and its over 2848?
sorry, 2048! of course. Thanks for pointing that out. But first it needs to break straight through 2062, only after that does the other conditions matter.

This strat uses many conditions throughout its evolution. I cannot share it well enough as it needs its variants, each adapted to a different evolution after entry.

In its simplest form though, far less optimal :
it would be closed if 1h candle closes below 44.
Partial TP when 1h candle closes with rsi breaking its highest value of the day, the rest would then be moved to BE, and remain open with trailing stop of about half days atr.

Again, those are far from being optimal. I am actually a bit ashamed of sharing it in pieces. But maybe it will give ideas to anyone working on developing their own strat.

Dont forget why I didnt take this myself, explained in my previous post. Also, it hates bidirectional volatility and tomorrows news, well you know...

P.S this is often a slow mover, slow but steady, and a trailing stop would be better than the simple form of TP I have mentioned. Again, that would depend on what happens going forward so I cant really make any precisions.

Also, now it has not pulled back down below 2050, that is very good sign. BUT did not even test 62 yet, not so good. If 62 is not even tested withing the next 15m, I would have to move SL early, below the low of the hour. Or just exit the trade entirely and wait for next setup...
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,666
  • May 6, 2021 2:04pm May 6, 2021 2:04pm
Quoting Monk
What’s everyone’s general rule for NFP? It’s been God like 8 years since I’ve “traded” on that day. Guessing all those with multiple long (as in length of time not market direction) term trades just hunker down and maybe adjust stops. But for those who have trades open for a day or the week whatever do you close them out prior to the announcement? Or just move stops out some maybe put in some crazy limit order in your favor and hope to catch the lightening strike in favor? I looked back on the last few of them on a daily but didn’t really see any...

wow yes, range really changed in the last 8 years !!

Before considering any entries, I personally wait for volatility and average range to stop growing for at least half an hour. The majority of the time, I still get at least a decent setup after that, and a much safer one at that.

And I loosen SLs that are around border of range and close any that are within.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,667
  • May 6, 2021 2:05pm May 6, 2021 2:05pm
I think so many people will be surprised tomorrow. My point is down. Just my thoughts. But let's see!
  • #131,668
  • May 6, 2021 2:15pm May 6, 2021 2:15pm
Quoting bigiivan
I think so many people will be surprised tomorrow. My point is down. Just my thoughts. But let's see!

I wouldnt be surprised to be surprised

No, I think I will just marvel at the birds in the blue sky and count the sound of my alarms getting hit for as long as it takes me to find and a bull and a bear shaped clouds.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,669
  • May 6, 2021 2:26pm May 6, 2021 2:26pm
Quoting bigiivan
I think so many people will be surprised tomorrow. My point is down. Just my thoughts. But let's see!
If we don't see brekout thru black resistance zone there will be up's and down's... betwen both S/R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bb.png Size: 51 KB
  • #131,670
  • Edited May 7, 2021 2:31am May 6, 2021 2:32pm | Edited May 7, 2021 2:31am
Quoting Monk
What’s everyone’s general rule for NFP? It’s been God like 8 years since I’ve “traded” on that day. Guessing all those with multiple long (as in length of time not market direction) term trades just hunker down and maybe adjust stops. But for those who have trades open for a day or the week whatever do you close them out prior to the announcement? Or just move stops out some maybe put in some crazy limit order in your favor and hope to catch the lightening strike in favor? I looked back on the last few of them on a daily but didn’t really see any...
Myself I only adjust my positions after the outcome, according to the dollar smile in the current regime (meaning very good or extremely bad numbers compared to expectations are usually USD positive and everything near expectations is EUR positive). Because most of the time the big move comes slowly with plenty of time to trade on the number, even though some algos trade directly, that does not matter to the ultimate outcome.

As expectations are very high for tomorrow the euro will probably even lose initially when expectations are met but slowly rebound thereafter.

In my context (being long medium-term), I would act like this:
>1.4mm: sell some longs and buy back the next day or so
<1.4mm & > 1mm: sell some longs and buy back a few hours later
<1mm & > 850k: buy the potential dip rather quickly
< 850k & > 500k: add longs
< 500k: in the current context this will probably not trigger a risk-off move with USD strength but rather more USD weakness, but not sure

EDIT: Revised upper threshold for intraday buy the dip to 1.4mm because most of the big boys expect payrolls above 1mm (Goldman e.g. 1.3 mm, Citi 1.15 etc), so the shadow expectation is probably higher than 1 mm.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #131,671
  • May 6, 2021 2:34pm May 6, 2021 2:34pm
Quoting bigiivan
I think so many people will be surprised tomorrow. My point is down. Just my thoughts. But let's see!
to the upside or to the downside?
Another day, another dollar.
  • #131,672
  • May 6, 2021 2:38pm May 6, 2021 2:38pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Myself I only adjust my positions after the outcome, according to the dollar smile in the current regime (meaning very good or extremely bad numbers compared to expectations are usually USD positive and everything near expectations is EUR positive). Because most of the time the big move comes slowly with plenty of time to trade on the number, even though some algos trade directly, that does not matter to the ultimate outcome. As expectations are very high for tomorrow the euro will probably even lose initially when expectations are met but...

Wow nic9man, thanks a lot for that thorough response. I never keep an eye on fundamentals. You're making me want to. Your post is awesome. Will probably follow the news with your post open in another window.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,673
  • May 6, 2021 2:45pm May 6, 2021 2:45pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} I wouldnt be surprised to be surprised No, I think I will just marvel at the birds in the blue sky and count the sound of my alarms getting hit for as long as it takes me to find and a bull and a bear shaped clouds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: polar-bear-cloud-bob-welch.jpg Size: 100 KB
Seems like a bear shaped cloud approuching!!
But I wouldn't be surprised if it turn to a bull!
Groeten vrienden, Darrell!
  • #131,674
  • May 6, 2021 3:00pm May 6, 2021 3:00pm
Quoting DrDarrell
{quote} {image}Seems like a bear shaped cloud approuching!! But I wouldn't be surprised if it turn to a bull! Groeten vrienden, Darrell!
Wow, yes, that is what I will be looking for tomorrow ! Groeten vrienden !




Quoting mtako
{quote} ....... P.S this is often a slow mover, slow but steady, and a trailing stop would be better than the simple form of TP I have mentioned. Again, that would depend on what happens going forward so I cant really make any precisions. Also, now it has not pulled back down below 2050, that is very good sign. BUT did not even test 62 yet, not so good. If 62 is not even tested withing the next 15m, I would have to move SL early, below the low of the hour. Or just exit the trade entirely and wait for next setup...

And look at that silly bear. He is supposed to be holding the 2070 Defense Post. Now the bulls trying to sneak their way behind him


Ok, bedtime. Cheers all and thanks a lot for the views and laughs.
Attached Image
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,675
  • May 6, 2021 3:25pm May 6, 2021 3:25pm
Quoting k.k
{quote} would you please tell me how your system working or refer to where could I find about your system.
I'll make a thread about it later. Shouldn't be here. Let's use this thread for trading ideas or entries.

SF
  • #131,676
  • May 6, 2021 3:35pm May 6, 2021 3:35pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Here a glimpse for you of where I see the cypher forming.. {image}

I love the way ur indicator fits perfectly. Would u like sharing?
  • #131,677
  • May 6, 2021 3:43pm May 6, 2021 3:43pm
Hmmm, it looks like the next/first serious resistance lies around 1.21. Good night.
  • #131,678
  • May 6, 2021 3:54pm May 6, 2021 3:54pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Wow nic9man, thanks a lot for that thorough response. I never keep an eye on fundamentals. You're making me want to. Your post is awesome. Will probably follow the news with your post open in another window.
Just an educated guess - usually I don't like to trade on those numbers and stick with my overall picture, but sometimes the market reaction on the numbers creates opportunities or the number requires action. In the end this payroll report does not matter for the overall picture yet, because there are still more than 16 million Americans on government aid meaning the FED will keep waiting with any signs of hawkishness while the system is flooded with dollars. So I stick with my 1.28 target. Until then no short setups for me, unless a multi-week rising wedge appears or Powell starts thinking of thinking of tapering. This is just the US side - on Europe's side I am pretty sure numbers will soon come in like on steroids as vaccinations progress quickly now. When all the locked up people get freed they will unleash a spending spree like no other.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #131,679
  • May 6, 2021 3:56pm May 6, 2021 3:56pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} to the upside or to the downside?
I suppose it will visit both sides in first few minutes. Then I expect to go down. Below 1,2000.
But let's see tomorrow! There are so much water to flow before the storm.
  • #131,680
  • May 6, 2021 4:08pm May 6, 2021 4:08pm
Quoting decklinz
{quote} I love the way ur indicator fits perfectly. Would u like sharing?
Chart is already showing the parameters..
Attached Image
Focus only on what truly matters!
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