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  • #131,621
  • Edited 8:46am May 6, 2021 8:30am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting Kyuu
Holding my short since 1.214.. I'm a little conflicted, I expect us to go up long term but at the same time I expect this support to break based on how it's been reacting... I think we'll have a bull move very soon, we're just accumulating/trapping early bulls now. Let's see what happens {image}
This support line since FOMC before has been pretty accurate. My 2 scenarios are both bullish, I personally don't know if this was a long enough accumulation/pullback to set the price upwards. If we close above 1.20779, I expect the us to make new highs tomorrow.

Based on weekly, if this is the real push now, we could end at 1.22 tomorrow... Hoping that we will have 1 more week of accumulation southwards and the week after we break 1.22. A 4H close above 1.20779 will decide that for me.
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  • #131,622
  • May 6, 2021 8:33am May 6, 2021 8:33am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Looks like it has broken already now and we will visit 1.2040 for a restest
It's looking just a bit flimsy for a short for me. Might work but I'm not loving it. Good luck if you take it. I'd like to wait for my zone, for now I think we're just in thin air
  • #131,623
  • May 6, 2021 8:51am May 6, 2021 8:51am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Is retail long?
retail is short af
Withdrawal makes your profit real.
  • #131,624
  • May 6, 2021 8:54am May 6, 2021 8:54am
Quoting corongumet
Try to early sell from 1.2050 SL 50 pips close all long
Its to early. In this case i will to change Be ASAP
Try to add more short at 1.20868

Cot was bear
I use last commercial data changed.
Its to look weekly sentiment.

My strong Resistance at 1.2102- 1.2150
And strong support at 1.2020-1.1985
Im done for today
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  • #131,625
  • May 6, 2021 9:02am May 6, 2021 9:02am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} Its to early. In this case i will to change Be ASAP Try to add more short at 1.20868 Cot was bear I use last commercial data changed. Its to look weekly sentiment. My strong Resistance at 1.2102- 1.2150 And strong support at 1.2020-1.1985 Im done for today {image}
It was just a gap fill move for dxy. When its time to fill the gap it always does it in a single swoop like that. The short opportunity will come a bit higher on EU.

Was waiting for this demand on dxy before shorting to see what the reaction was, it may have rejected already though

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7OQQtbPm/
  • #131,626
  • May 6, 2021 9:11am May 6, 2021 9:11am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} It was just a gap fill move for dxy. When its time to fill the gap it always does it in a single swoop like that. The short opportunity will come a bit higher on EU. Was waiting for this demand on dxy before shorting to see what the reaction was, it may have rejected already though https://www.tradingview.com/x/7OQQtbPm/
Thanks for your insight. I haven't had time to research DXY correlation with COT data (What data will I use?).

i use the commercial, and look it 3 or 4 month ago. And its correlate. Lets see. How long it can be move?
  • #131,627
  • May 6, 2021 9:15am May 6, 2021 9:15am
Quoting mtako
...Just got a long open at 20249 as I write this. Moved at BE the second 33 is hit, if hit....
Quoting mtako
Buy stop .20485
Quoting mtako
{quote} 1st step not met, have to move SL early to .20445, moving to BE when/if 2068 is hit. (usual dynamic TP would now be 74 in this case.) That was my last trade of the day and probably also my last trade before tomorrows many coming news volatility dances. We don't need to outrun the charging bear or Bull! (big movers), we only need to outrun the other guy ! Cheers all, take care and trade strong and happy ! {image}

Best case scenario for bulls, for me, has been reached: 2068. All positions now at BE again.

Now, for me, no selling allowed above 2057, and at least till next week.
Bulls need it to make a clear and clean close above 2070 for a much higher chance of a continuation tomorrow; and that could mean a push much higher still, as many more longer term bulls would be jumping on board. Bears need to be(ar) extra beware!

Now no buying allowed before tomorrow is done with its funky news ticks dances.


Im done at last, and probably for the week ! Cheers and have a with me !

P.S I am the one in the red skirt ! Close ! But I survive ! You guys are the red shirt and the yellow skirt, we all survive.
Lets thank from the bottom of our hearts the tall one, for her sacrifice
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #131,628
  • May 6, 2021 9:21am May 6, 2021 9:21am
Had an order to sell at 2072 and price just missed triggering it
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #131,629
  • May 6, 2021 9:37am May 6, 2021 9:37am
Well shoot - just noticed I had an active small short from 2053 already. Currently trading on phone and didn’t see it. It’s coming back up on be from the 2070 area retrace. Keeping it alive for now and setting stop to 2085 I think for now. Maybe I got in by accident even if I little too early.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #131,630
  • May 6, 2021 9:39am May 6, 2021 9:39am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Looks like it has broken already now and we will visit 1.2040 for a restest
1.1240 was retested already. We testing other lvl rn.
SF
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  • #131,632
  • May 6, 2021 10:09am May 6, 2021 10:09am
Quoting josip
I found another wedge, youpii... sorry for usdjpy, little joy... update EU> still long, can be small short, but again Long {image}
Waiting for Ata to dislike this
Another day, another dollar.
  • #131,633
  • May 6, 2021 10:11am May 6, 2021 10:11am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Waiting for Ata to dislike this

was about saying same thing
  • #131,634
  • May 6, 2021 10:17am May 6, 2021 10:17am
update my view

ok EU hold on Long, Buylimit
we can test lower positions
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #131,635
  • May 6, 2021 10:40am May 6, 2021 10:40am
Quoting jdtown99
{quote} 1.2150 resistance held this week. My sell signal is active on 4H. Normally I'd look for a retest of 1.2150 where I would add sell positions and hold for a significant swing down. Unfortunately, I entered sell positions way too early on this Q2 bull run last week which limits my ability to add more sell positions at retests. Lesson learned for next swing.
Sell signal remains active if my weekly resistance of 1.20649 holds. It is certainly getting testing. Good opportunity for me to add small sell positions. Can add bigger sell positions if I see a clear bounce off 1.20649. Resisting urge to try and predict when bears will run and make the mistake of getting in too early. There is a possibility bears might not run at all.
  • #131,636
  • May 6, 2021 10:56am May 6, 2021 10:56am
I'm still kinda amazed how simply two HMA's indicators can be benefical to trading. Well actually this is my old way of trading. Cca 5 years back, but still works lovely. Used before on 1H chart but also in lower TF also possible.

You can guys see the small sell signal. Drawdown is literally zero, actual move down is +13 pips. With 1 000 USD account this is gross profit of 338 USD. With comission cca 323 USD. This is pretty good for a 1 hour long trade.

I expected this to happen few hours back already, but I was forced to close last sell trade (still in profit tho) because HMA's were not in good position. Check my second chart.

If You guys have any thoughts, feel free to ask or tell.

SF
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  • #131,637
  • May 6, 2021 11:13am May 6, 2021 11:13am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} Its to early. In this case i will to change Be ASAP Try to add more short at 1.20868 Cot was bear I use last commercial data changed. Its to look weekly sentiment. My strong Resistance at 1.2102- 1.2150 And strong support at 1.2020-1.1985 Im done for today {image}
Its my key level. I hope it can break 1.2020
  • #131,638
  • May 6, 2021 11:24am May 6, 2021 11:24am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} Its my key level. I hope it can break 1.2020
I would suggest we stay long.. Price is way above daily resistance 1.2032.. Careful with a bearish mindset! Also notice that majority of retail is bearish too.. So?
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #131,639
  • May 6, 2021 11:27am May 6, 2021 11:27am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I would suggest we stay long.. Price is way above daily resistance 1.2032.. Careful with a bearish mindset! Also notice that majority of retail is bearish too.. So?
Locked in. I Have long scenarios, now my risk 2% for short. I can take it back, ASAP
I follow my rule and i have a scenarios to change the directions


I have sell order at 1.2067 (Sl at Be)
And 1.2052 (SL 1.2073)
Its 2%

I want to recounting if break my key level.
Thanks for suggestion
  • #131,640
  • Edited 11:51am May 6, 2021 11:40am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} Locked in. I Have long scenarios, now my risk 2% for short. I can take it back, ASAP I follow my rule and i have a scenarios to change the directions I have sell order at 1.2067 (Sl at Be) And 1.2052 (SL 1.2073) Its 2% I want to recounting if break my key level. Thanks for suggestion
Gotcha.. Good luck then

*I am long from 1.2047.. Waiting for progress..
Focus only on what truly matters!
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