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Pivot Trading

  • #38,381
  • May 5, 2021 9:02am May 5, 2021 9:02am
Quoting GreenEarth
{quote} Pivoter , that's exactly what I'm lookin for , coupled with more positive News out of the US. I think that Janet Yellen actually made a decent comment saying , "..might need to raise interest rates.....". However , I think it was overlooked and not fully absorbed. From my perspective , with a declining USD , the positive side is what she didn't say , and that is something like , "....we have no intention of raising interest rates....". Far better response , imo. Roughly 4 weeks ago , I posted that oil spiked due to speculators , and it would...

another driving force behind the rise in oil: the pandemic is slowly passing, the economy is picking up momentum, the vaccines are working so slowly, the infections are decreasing
the highest point comes before the fall
  • #38,382
  • May 5, 2021 9:46am May 5, 2021 9:46am
Quoting Pivoter
{quote} another driving force behind the rise in oil: the pandemic is slowly passing, the economy is picking up momentum, the vaccines are working so slowly, the infections are decreasing

I agree Pivoter.
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,383
  • May 5, 2021 8:07pm May 5, 2021 8:07pm
Hey Professionals ,
Just entered a LONG UC position at 1.22685.
This is a COUNTER TREND TRADE , so it is going against the MAIN TREND of the UC.
I also have a position , LONG UC at 1.2310
My TP is WPP (1.2347) and 1.2380 area in extension.

Oil PA is currently retreating , and from my perspective will probably be in the 64'sBBL very soon.
The Bull's & Bears are locked right now in a battle at S38.
My thinking is that market participants are just beginning to feel more bullish with this pair and already looking ahead to Friday's NFP Release.
Can this pair disappoint and breach S38 and tumble to 1.2200 or lower, absolutely. And at anytime before Friday. Friday's News could also be a non event too.
I'm always amazed by how quickly the "shorts" of this pair run for the exits when WTI PA shows signs of weakening.
Lot's of "longs" still sitting in the 1.2480-1.2580 as well.
As MD stated , "It only takes 1 trader in the entire World , the ENTIRE WORLD , to negate your trade." MD also went on to say , that understanding this is HUGE.
See y'all in the morning , be safe
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,384
  • May 5, 2021 9:34pm May 5, 2021 9:34pm
Good Days to all Pivot'ers

Just dropped in to say...good to see day to day all pivot'er making progress and profit.

STAY{safe,healthy,patient}
LESS{mistake,stress,analysis,distraction,chart}
MORE{focus,disciplined,PROFIT!!!}


Enjoy with your family & friends!!!
  • #38,385
  • May 6, 2021 3:06am May 6, 2021 3:06am
Another win EN, currently 2.6% profit. I initially had a 3% drawdown but I let it go to S100 and gave it time to mature. I was a bit stressed and after a long series of wins I was not completely ready to accept a loss. But if the price broke the S100 I would close it (Would I?). Also I learned two things in this trade. First, EN was a very volatile pair so I should have reduced my lot size accordingly. Second, my positions are still too large for me because 3% drawdown from one pivot to the other is too much for my mind and I felt uncomfortable and unsecure and that was going to shadow my judgment.

Best Regards
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  • #38,386
  • May 6, 2021 3:37am May 6, 2021 3:37am
Quoting ebitalebi
Another win EN, currently 2.6% profit. I initially had a 3% drawdown but I let it go to S100 and gave it time to mature. I was a bit stressed and after a long series of wins I was not completely ready to accept a loss. But if the price broke the S100 I would close it (Would I?). Also I learned two things in this trade. First, EN was a very volatile pair so I should have reduced my lot size accordingly. Second, my positions are still too large for me because 3% drawdown from one pivot to the other is too much for my mind and I felt uncomfortable...
Closed the trade for 3.41% profit. It moved higher but I was satisfied with the results. Yes I could let one of the positions go but I didn't (a mistake). Still waiting and preparing myself for the black swan after 15 consecutive wins.

Pivot Trading Works! Thanks Davit.


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  • #38,387
  • May 6, 2021 7:05am May 6, 2021 7:05am
Quoting ebitalebi
{quote} Closed the trade for 3.41% profit. It moved higher but I was satisfied with the results. Yes I could let one of the positions go but I didn't (a mistake). Still waiting and preparing myself for the black swan after 15 consecutive wins. Pivot Trading Works! Thanks Davit. {image}{image}
Great job Ebitalebi !!!!!
Excellent PATIENT MINDSET , not easy to develop if a person is not born that personality trait.
Beautiful equity curve.
Regards ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,388
  • May 6, 2021 7:26am May 6, 2021 7:26am
Need lots of green News in a few minutes out of the US.
Oil has potential to hit $64.50 or $64.20 today.
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,389
  • May 6, 2021 8:45am May 6, 2021 8:45am
Hi Folks ,
Closed my LONG UC position of 1.2310 and took the loss.
This was a contrarian trade , and I lost. Simple. I move on.
I grossly underestimated the SHORT HORSEPOWER behind this pair.

I don't know if a BLOWOUT NUMBER in the US NFP tomorrow would even make that much of a difference in this pair at the moment.
This could all change in 10 seconds , literally.

If WTI is not trading in the $64.70 range or below by 5 o'clock today AST and PA of UC has not recovered to S38 , I will close my LONG UC position @ 1.22685

Green Pips to all,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,390
  • May 6, 2021 9:16am May 6, 2021 9:16am
Closed all UC trades just before the massive spike down to S61 , definitely was not in my vision this week.
Just an instinctive fluke folks. At least partly. Closed trades at 1.2238 , soon as it broke 1.2240
Done for the week , gonna let my mind reboot and go at it again on Sunday night.
1st weekly loss I've had in a long time , win ratio is currently at 94% , and I owe this result to all of the SUPERTRADERS ON THIS THREAD , especially Davit , rarely have I seen him wrong in 3 YEARS !!!!
3 years ago , I was absolutely the worst trader on Planet Earth.

I believe that I moved into a mental state of overconfidence as MD said , almost into euphoria.
I know that it was me , my decisions , I was GAMBLING instead of trading. I know better. I broke the #1 Rule of Trading , and I lost.
I beat myself this week , too cocky.

Being Canadian , I'm afraid for my friends South of our Border. The US Economy is in BIG , BIG , TROUBLE. My fear is that the worst is yet to come.
Like him or not , I sure wish Trump had won the US Election.

Green pips to all of you my friends , be safe , help each other , COVID-19 is NOT A JOKE. GET VACCINATED , whether you believe in it or not , the life you save may be the person that you love the most. Me personally , I'm anti-vaccine , BUT , I did it last week anyway , got the AstraZeneca. Moderate reaction , had to go to hospital to ensure my own safety because of it. Feel much better knowing my loved one's will be much safer.

If I offended any of you , I am TRULY SORRY. I sincerely apologize for preaching.
Be safe ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,391
  • Edited 10:08am May 6, 2021 9:46am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting GreenEarth
Closed all UC trades just before the massive spike down to S61 , definitely was not in my vision this week. Just an instinctive fluke folks. At least partly. Closed trades at 1.2238 , soon as it broke 1.2240 Done for the week , gonna let my mind reboot and go at it again on Sunday night. 1st weekly loss I've had in a long time , win ratio is currently at 94% , and I owe this result to all of the SUPERTRADERS ON THIS THREAD , especially Davit , rarely have I seen him wrong in 3 YEARS !!!! 3 years ago , I was absolutely the worst trader on Planet...
my opinion is also like davit already said. cad is overbought, but could go until 1.21 .. a little below s100.... but of course that has nothing to do with pivot trading in smaller time frames, it's just a glimpse into the future of what could happen ...

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the highest point comes before the fall
  • #38,392
  • May 6, 2021 11:31am May 6, 2021 11:31am
Quoting Pivoter
{quote} my opinion is also like davit already said. cad is overbought, but could go until 1.21 .. a little below s100.... but of course that has nothing to do with pivot trading in smaller time frames, it's just a glimpse into the future of what could happen ... {image}
Davit is absolutely the best I've ever seen. Lucky for us.
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,393
  • May 6, 2021 3:42pm May 6, 2021 3:42pm
uc falls and falls, that is no longer normal, replaces the rule of our strategy out of power, but that means you can't foresee anything. the market indicates the direction, not the trader
the highest point comes before the fall
  • #38,394
  • May 6, 2021 3:45pm May 6, 2021 3:45pm
but the reversal takes place
the highest point comes before the fall
  • #38,395
  • May 6, 2021 5:06pm May 6, 2021 5:06pm
Quoting Pivoter
but the reversal takes place
Exactly. I'm not currently focused on one pair but falling UC is good for those who are specifically follow the pair. As Warren Buffet said when the stock you love gets cheaper will you get mad? no you'll buy more of it at much better price. CAD is overbought and we have to see what happens. To me CAD is like a bleeding sheep in wolves' country now.

Quoting GreenEarth
Closed all UC trades just before the massive spike down to S61 , definitely was not in my vision this week. Just an instinctive fluke folks. At least partly. Closed trades at 1.2238 , soon as it broke 1.2240 Done for the week , gonna let my mind reboot and go at it again on Sunday night. 1st weekly loss I've had in a long time , win ratio is currently at 94% , and I owe this result to all of the SUPERTRADERS ON THIS THREAD , especially Davit , rarely have I seen him wrong in 3 YEARS !!!! 3 years ago , I was absolutely the worst trader on Planet...
Congratulations GE. You stopped the loss. It requires courage.
  • #38,396
  • Edited May 7, 2021 10:55am May 6, 2021 8:17pm | Edited May 7, 2021 10:55am
Hello Fellow Pivotors,

Sumnary of Davit's Posts on Trading Pivots here from April to June 2016 for your study.
Note:To see the Charts, on hold the CRTL button and double CLICK and it will come up.

Enjoy and Regards !

- Dr. John
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Davits Trading Posts - April to June 2016 - 135 pgs.pdf   2.0 MB | 674 downloads
"What Goes Up, Must Come Down." - (c) Sir Isaac Newton - 1647
  • #38,397
  • May 7, 2021 10:40am May 7, 2021 10:40am
Quoting DrForexMD
Hello Fellow Pivotors, Sumnary of Davit's Pivot Posts here from April to June 2016 for your study. Note:To see the Charts, hold the CRTL button and double CLICK and it will come up. Enjoy and Regards ! - Dr. John {image}
AWESOME !!!!! THANK YOU DrForexMD !!!!!!
SUPER VALUABLE !!!!
Thank you for your commitment to this thread in order to help everyone reach their goals.
Sincerely ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,398
  • May 7, 2021 2:29pm May 7, 2021 2:29pm
Hi traders. This is the definition of patience by Rumi, a great Persian poet and philosopher about 800 years ago. (I posted it in 2016 but I want to share it here as well).

Best Regards
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  • #38,399
  • Edited 1:52am May 9, 2021 12:06am | Edited 1:52am
Let's look at Business and Consumer sentiment in the US.. ( MANUFACTORING PMI )
For currencies our aggregate / World View is more important i.e. is the United States ( the worlds largest economy ) growing or slowing in Aggregate? Is the world growing?

Just think about USDCAD, the view is to short the currency pair?
NOW THE QUESTION IS, WERE WILL THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXTREME BE?
I'M STILL BEARISH USD FOR NOW.

THIS IS JUST A VERY SMALL % TO COMPILE AND IMPLEMENT YOUR CALENDAR ( SENTIMENT)
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #38,400
  • Edited 2:18am May 9, 2021 2:01am | Edited 2:18am
PIVOTS WILL RESET BACK TO S38,
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
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