Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2906 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #58,101
  • May 5, 2021 2:08pm May 5, 2021 2:08pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Perfect Double-Doji entry signal there as well.
Yep, Volman was echoing on the 1 minute as well…!
  • #58,102
  • May 5, 2021 4:50pm May 5, 2021 4:50pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} nah, i hunt for easy money. As i say, Cable isnt running like it used to. OK the 08-00 is ok,,,but the fixing is more work. Nifty 50 is tremendous, but i have to wait for triggers. Then along came FTSE 100 lol


I am still trying to understand if there is any mathematical/monetary advantage in hedging a failed trade instead of using the broker's SL. After all my research so far it really looks like to me that there is no such.

May i friendly ask you again (and all others doing that) what advantage in locking in a failed trade e.g, buy 1 lot (initial trade) then sell 1 lot (to limit further risk, lock it) provides to you?

I understand to hedge/lock it until the next trigger appears that would validate exiting one side of such trade again. Then using the remaining position basically as a new trade with that you are then trying to get back on track.

However, could you then not simply exit your initial trade that obviously failed by reaching to your level of risk and then re-entering at such new valid trigger by opening a new position? What is the difference? This way you would also not have to worry about the potential risk of even increasing the costs of the locked-in trade by having to hold it until the next day / overnight and get charged swap on it, risk of massive spread widening and so on.

Honestly i might be too stupid to understand this but to me it looks like just from a monetary/mathematical point of view that there is no advantage hedging like that instead of realizing the loss instantly after the trade obviously failed and reached to what ever pre-determined limit of risk, like in case of the BillyBar, the opposite end of the range.

I also looked back for over 4 years now of past data for every single day on the 08-15 range and there is no way you would ever have ended up net profitable by the end of the year if you would have taken the stop loss at the opposite end of the range and booking profits for +5.

It say that trading only the BillyBar setup/method as a stand-alone will not let you end up profitable in the long run. Especially not for the +5 at the end of each single day. Maybe for some weeks it will work out but you would give it all back again on just 1-2 bad weeks at such poor r/r you would have at a rather large range.

So I mean without fixing it! Fixing... It sounds like something magical. But it just means you will have to take new risk to make back a prior loss or generate a net profit overall from your actions. How do you do the "fixing"? You take a new chance here by placing a new trade at a new signal.

Okaaay, thats all i wanted to say again. We are still "locked-in" too here in good old Germany hehe. At least the weather is getting a bit better now.

Have a nice evening all.
  • #58,103
  • May 6, 2021 12:55am May 6, 2021 12:55am
[quote=lddd;13525404]{quote} I am still trying to understand if there is any mathematical/monetary advantage in hedging a failed trade instead of using the broker's SL. After all my research so far it really looks like to me that there is no such. May i friendly ask you again (and all oth

DON'T FEKKIN DO IT THEN.
The reason i counter is. the last time i actually lost with my big trade was approx 4 or 5 years ago.
i did have a fail a few weeks ago on a little trade but i did tell the room.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #58,104
  • May 6, 2021 1:36am May 6, 2021 1:36am
here is a little help to get an edge.

bias is the H1 close. green=long, red=short

on the next hour bar open take the trade of the color and take 5.

the statistical advantage to hit the 5 is about 82% high.

you can also take the signals as a confirming trigger for your trades.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #58,105
  • Edited 2:27am May 6, 2021 2:14am | Edited 2:27am
Quoting birdland
here is a little help to get an edge. bias is the H1 close. green=long, red=short on the next hour bar open take the trade of the color and take 5. the statistical advantage to hit the 5 is about 82% high. you can also take the signals as a confirming trigger for your trades.

Good info bud.

AND, you sound like me, i look at things like that.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #58,106
  • May 6, 2021 2:53am May 6, 2021 2:53am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Good info bud. AND, you sound like me, i look at things like that.
what's left to do when you've been poking around in the markets for so long and want to survive;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #58,107
  • May 6, 2021 2:57am May 6, 2021 2:57am
Quoting birdland
{quote} what's left to do when you've been poking around in the markets for so long and want to survive;-)

yes, been there, done it. lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #58,108
  • May 6, 2021 3:03am May 6, 2021 3:03am
Quoting birdland
here is a little help to get an edge. bias is the H1 close. green=long, red=short on the next hour bar open take the trade of the color and take 5. the statistical advantage to hit the 5 is about 82% high. you can also take the signals as a confirming trigger for your trades.
H1 close bar is the 8-00 bar?
  • #58,109
  • May 6, 2021 3:12am May 6, 2021 3:12am
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} H1 close bar is the 8-00 bar?
no, every h1 bar from lo open to close
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #58,110
  • May 6, 2021 3:13am May 6, 2021 3:13am
BillyBar high broke but well, lets see, not failed yet.

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  • #58,111
  • May 6, 2021 3:15am May 6, 2021 3:15am
the 1.3910 is a very tough zone at the moment.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #58,112
  • May 6, 2021 3:42am May 6, 2021 3:42am
Cable.
08-00 break. totally miserable lol.
High broke and didnt quite make the 5 + spread.
I wasn't going to trade it but the trigger went through the 00-00 high range.
So hey ho . i am now on a counter.
Dax was a good long on the open, as was FTSE 100. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #58,113
  • May 6, 2021 3:43am May 6, 2021 3:43am
Quoting billytt
The reason i counter is. the last time i actually lost with my big trade was approx 4 or 5 years ago. i did have a fail a few weeks ago on a little trade but i did tell the room.
Well it seems like you're not trading it every day anymore right?

It just failed by the way, i am locked in for -15. So a +20 i now have to make by the end of the day to end up +5 without increasing my size on the next entry.

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Trading it every day of +5 without a loss in 5 years i would be sitting at the top of the Forbes riches list by now and could easily buy this forum and would´t care writing to it anymore

Anyways, have a good day.
  • #58,114
  • May 6, 2021 3:46am May 6, 2021 3:46am
[quote=billytt;13525750]
Quoting lddd
{quote} I am still trying to understand if there is any mathematical/monetary advantage in hedging a failed trade instead of using the broker's SL. After all my research so far it really looks like to me that there is no such. May i friendly ask you again (and all oth DON'T FEKKIN DO IT THEN. The reason i counter is. the last time i actually lost with my big trade was approx 4 or 5 years ago. i did have a fail a few weeks ago on a little trade but i did tell the room.
God almighty, he is STILL blabbering on about this? You have the patience of a saint, Billy. Truly.
  • #58,115
  • May 6, 2021 4:05am May 6, 2021 4:05am
Quoting billytt
Cable. 08-00 break. totally miserable lol. High broke and didnt quite make the 5 + spread. I wasn't going to trade it but the trigger went through the 00-00 high range. So hey ho . i am now on a counter. Dax was a good long on the open, as was FTSE 100. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.
BOE party pooper at midday
  • #58,116
  • May 6, 2021 4:12am May 6, 2021 4:12am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well it seems like you're not trading it every day anymore right? It just failed by the way, i am locked in for -15. So a +20 i now have to make by the end of the day to end up +5 without increasing my size on the next entry. {image} Trading it every day of +5 without a loss in 5 years i would be sitting at the top of the Forbes riches list by now and could easily buy this forum and would´t care writing to it anymore Anyways, have a good day.
Are you actually mental? Why do you keep trying to trade this when you clearly hate it and have no faith in it?
  • #58,117
  • May 6, 2021 4:36am May 6, 2021 4:36am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I am still trying to understand if there is any mathematical/monetary advantage in hedging a failed trade instead of using the broker's SL. After all my research so far it really looks like to me that there is no such. May i friendly ask you again (and all others doing that) what advantage in locking in a failed trade e.g, buy 1 lot (initial trade) then sell 1 lot (to limit further risk, lock it) provides to you? I understand to hedge/lock it until the next trigger appears that would validate exiting one side of such trade again....
It seems you have finally come to your own conclusions. This is what all of us have been trying to tell you over the past months. The question now is, what will you do now that you know 1. trading it for +5 is a losing proposition and 2. countering in and of itself has no statistical/mathmatical advantage (for you)?
  • #58,118
  • May 6, 2021 4:41am May 6, 2021 4:41am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well it seems like you're not trading it every day anymore right? It just failed by the way, i am locked in for -15. So a +20 i now have to make by the end of the day to end up +5 without increasing my size on the next entry. {image} Trading it every day of +5 without a loss in 5 years i would be sitting at the top of the Forbes riches list by now and could easily buy this forum and would´t care writing to it anymore Anyways, have a good day.
Context helps. The 1.3910 level Birdland mentioned combined with this range for more than 24 hours made me not trade cable this morning.
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  • #58,119
  • May 6, 2021 5:11am May 6, 2021 5:11am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} BOE party pooper at midday

my Cable 08-00 break, failed by a fraction of a point.
It happens
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #58,120
  • May 6, 2021 5:12am May 6, 2021 5:12am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Context helps. The 1.3910 level Birdland mentioned combined with this range for more than 24 hours made me not trade cable this morning. {image}
That is begging for a break out.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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