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Who needs help?

  • #1
  • First Post: May 4, 2021 9:41am May 4, 2021 9:41am
Hi everyone,

I’m at a stage where I am consistently profitable and would like to give back to this forum which has significantly helped me along my 6 year journey and excite the butterfly effect in your own journey.

I promise I’ll get back to everyone.
  • #2
  • May 4, 2021 9:43am May 4, 2021 9:43am
I need help with exiting trades. Most of the times my trades are in profit but I don't exit. If I start doing this then my winning rate will be more than 60%.

PLEASE HELP!!
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #3
  • May 4, 2021 9:44am May 4, 2021 9:44am
Quoting maverick2017
I need help with exiting trades. Most of the times my trades are in profit but I don't exit. If I start doing this then my winning rate will be more than 60%. PLEASE HELP!!

Whats your current strategy for exiting?
  • #4
  • May 4, 2021 10:07am May 4, 2021 10:07am
Quoting mikforfac
{quote} Whats your current strategy for exiting?
If there is a hammer/shooting star then I will exit and if there is an engulfing then.
Apart from that if there is increase in volume on level II and T&S.

The thing is I know that I should exit. A signal has told me that I should exit but I always tend to think that this is only a retracement but most of the times it retraces the full drop and more.

I prefer taking shorts i.e. 90% of my trades are short.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #5
  • May 4, 2021 10:38am May 4, 2021 10:38am
By your statement it is so clear that you know how to trade, but there is something which is really important called as " Managing Risk".
Let me give you a tip which helped me to overcome the same situation.
When your trade goes 60 % in the direction which you are anticipating, then close some positions and trail the stop.
and let the trade run with the rest of the quantity.
So by doing this practice, over time, you will gain confidence in your trades and at the same time, you are managing your risk.
Hope this helps you, Thank you.
  • #6
  • May 4, 2021 10:56am May 4, 2021 10:56am
Quoting anvi.anvesh1
By your statement it is so clear that you know how to trade, but there is something which is really important called as " Managing Risk". Let me give you a tip which helped me to overcome the same situation. When your trade goes 60 % in the direction which you are anticipating, then close some positions and trail the stop. and let the trade run with the rest of the quantity. So by doing this practice, over time, you will gain confidence in your trades and at the same time, you are managing your risk. Hope this helps you, Thank you.
Hmmm
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there is something which is really important called as " Managing Risk".
There is stop loss to manage risk.

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When your trade goes 60 % in the direction
I don't have a fixed target.
Could it be that I take too many trades against the trend?

Thanks.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #7
  • May 4, 2021 11:25am May 4, 2021 11:25am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} If there is a hammer/shooting star then I will exit and if there is an engulfing then. Apart from that if there is increase in volume on level II and T&S. The thing is I know that I should exit. A signal has told me that I should exit but I always tend to think that this is only a retracement but most of the times it retraces the full drop and more. I prefer taking shorts i.e. 90% of my trades are short.
Well, you've identified 4 signals for exiting I would take a few steps back and just use one of hammer, shooting, engulfing or volume and see how useful it is on its own, you might have to walk back a step so you can simplify your strategy just so you can effectively record the effectiveness of your signals.
  • #8
  • May 4, 2021 11:38am May 4, 2021 11:38am
Quote
just use one of hammer, shooting, engulfing or volume and see how useful it is on its own
Yes. If any of these 4 is present then I "try" to exit. But again I think that this in only a retracement and more points, can be made if I just wait.

I have thought that I will give myself 3mins at max. and if the market is not continuing it's path in my direction then I'll exit. Another way to exit using the same method is if market moves 2-3 points against my direction then I will exit.
In this situation also, the problem is I just don't exit. I need more than a mechanical signal. A reason/why.
If somehow I can guess the psychology behind the move then I can exit more decisively.

How useful was it for you to see signals working on its own?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #9
  • May 4, 2021 11:50am May 4, 2021 11:50am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Yes. If any of these 4 is present then I "try" to exit. But again I think that this in only a retracement and more points, can be made if I just wait. I have thought that I will give myself 3mins at max. and if the market is not continuing it's path in my direction then I'll exit. Another way to exit using the same method is if market moves 2-3 points against my direction then I will exit. In this situation also, the problem is I just don't exit. I need more than a mechanical signal. A reason/why. If somehow I can guess the psychology behind...
I use a group of signals to exit a trade.

In your case you’ve identified a group of good signals but you’re having a hard time connecting the dots, rebuidling your strategy and by starting with one will help.
  • #10
  • May 4, 2021 11:58am May 4, 2021 11:58am
Quoting mikforfac
{quote} I use a group of signals to exit a trade. In your case you’ve identified a group of good signals but you’re having a hard time connecting the dots, rebuidling your strategy and by starting with one will help.
By rebuilding you mean only the exit strategy, right?
Should I explain one strategy?

Is it possible to find divergence on a naked chart?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #11
  • May 4, 2021 12:10pm May 4, 2021 12:10pm
Quoting maverick2017
I need help with exiting trades. Most of the times my trades are in profit but I don't exit. If I start doing this then my winning rate will be more than 60%. PLEASE HELP!!
This is a clear case that you can resolve simply by looking at your data (assuming you are collecting it). If not start collecting data NOW!!.

What I can see from your posts are this...you really don't have a clear idea of how much (how many pips) profit your trade will go before you begin to see "issues" with your trade progression. It is a simple matter to look back at your prior trades and see that for every successful entry your position advances and average of "x" pips before you have trouble. Find this average and place a limit order at this point and DON'T GET GREEDY!! If you exit in profit 60% of the time as you statement seems to suggests, then you will make money like you've never seen before.

Don't get to your exit point and then leave the trade running...and don't exit before you reach this point. Trust our stats and if then there is trouble you will have data from which to make logical and cogent decisions. Entering is only 1/2 the battle...consistently exiting in profit is also the other half.

A great side effect of this approach is an exponential increase in your personal trading discipline, because you will soon see that even small profits once every few days can result in large gains at the end of the week, month, quarter. The pressure to perform is alleviated, and the discipline to execute your trade plan will go far beyond what you can imagine now...end result...you will consistently pull money out of the markets, seemingly at will.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #12
  • Edited 12:41pm May 4, 2021 12:25pm | Edited 12:41pm
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you really don't have a clear idea of how much (how many pips) profit your trade will go before you begin to see "issues" with your trade progression.
Correct. Every market has some characteristics and retracements&reversals will also have some recurring characteristic. Do you think that these characteristics can be identified?

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pips before you have trouble.
This happens after 5/7 points in profit. 5 is too small and 7 means there is some probability of 10 or maybe more.

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Don't get to your exit point and then leave the trade running
I don't have fixed targets. Exiting is somewhat subjective. I leave the trade running even when it has started to move against my direction and then when it comes 2-3points near my entry then I start to think that 2 points are of no use and there is still some space, which includes the SL, for the market to turn back to my direction. :|

Thank you for the bonus part. lol.


Also, my FOMO is too big. What to do about it. I don't exit because I won't be in a trade then. I stay in trades almost 70% of time, everyday.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #13
  • May 4, 2021 12:35pm May 4, 2021 12:35pm
Quoting maverick2017
I need help with exiting trades. Most of the times my trades are in profit but I don't exit. If I start doing this then my winning rate will be more than 60%. PLEASE HELP!!
We are waiting for mikforfac but I can say that: for exit I'm using
1. Stoch
2. Reverse Candle
3. Levels
4. Any found opposite signal (same an entry)
5. Time
6. Profit (per pair, cumulative etc)
7. TS (per pair, cumulative etc)

I know there are a lot of fairy tales around the trading about RR ratio and stop losses but I spent hundreds of hours testing it and there is no positive expectation found.

p.s. now i'm testing opposite delta for exit too. When for example it was a lot of green candles with positive delta and then delta becomes red. Good signal to exit the trade or to place SL in BE. Bu this still in progress. Don't have a lot of statistics yet.
Observer effect
  • #14
  • May 4, 2021 12:40pm May 4, 2021 12:40pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} We are waiting for mikforfac but I can say that: for exit I'm using 1. Stoch 2. Reverse Candle 3. Levels 4. Any found opposite signal (same an entry) 5. Time 6. Profit (per pair, cumulative etc) 7. TS (per pair, cumulative etc) I know there are a lot of fairy tales around the trading about RR ratio and stop losses but I spent hundreds of hours testing it and there is no positive expectation found.
How can time be used as a factor to exit?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #15
  • May 4, 2021 5:20pm May 4, 2021 5:20pm
You asked several questions...let me try and answer...most of these are fairly obvious or at least should be.

Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Correct. Every market has some characteristics and retracements&reversals will also have some recurring characteristic. Do you think that these characteristics can be identified?...
Of course!! Again it boils down to data collection. You need to parse out each trade by market and then make the same observations for each one. Some markets are more volatile than others...that is obvious so for the market you are trading what how often does the trade move in your direction? when it does, on average, how far does it go before a retrace against you? Does this retrace come back to your stop level? or can you ride it until the next impulse move? All of this data needs to be collected, collated and then averaged for each market. BUT YOU have to get up off your office chair and do it.

Quoting maverick2017
...{quote} This happens after 5/7 points in profit. 5 is too small and 7 means there is some probability of 10 or maybe more. ...
First of all...why is ANY profit "too small"? If you consistently take 5 pips on 60% of your trades you will make money (assuming your stop is equal to or less than this). If 7 means there is a probability of 10, what is that probability exactly? 50%, 60% 80%? And how have you determined that math? By the same measure...if 10 pips is "probable" how probable is 15 pips? or 20? Are you just "spitballing" these numbers or do you actually have the data to back it up? If you don't collect it! You may be surprised...

Quoting maverick2017
...{quote} I don't have fixed targets. Exiting is somewhat subjective. I leave the trade running even when it has started to move against my direction and then when it comes 2-3points near my entry then I start to think that 2 points are of no use and there is still some space, which includes the SL, for the market to turn back to my direction. :| Thank you for the bonus part. lol. Also, my FOMO is too big. What to do about it. I don't exit because I won't be in a trade then. I stay in trades almost 70% of time, everyday.
And this is the issue you asking help for...no fixed targets...no fixed profit. Start placing targets and keeping your profit. Then, as you collect more and more data perhaps you will have the science to back extending your targets. Simply saying I don't know what to do is why most never make money...because they are too lazy to do the actual work.

The truth of the matter is that how you enter means very little and makes almost no difference. You ability to exit (either to limit larger losses, or keep even small profits) is where the rubber meets the money making road. Just make sure it is something you can repeat consistently over and over every day.

Set a daily goal and when you reach it BE DONE!! Done keep trading and give back all your profits. Step away from your computer, trade the price where it is every time you begin a new day, and meet our goal. This does great things to your confidence and you will quickly realize that there is NOTHING your missing out on. The market will still be there tomorrow, and you will have many, many MANY more opportunities to make money, IF your disciplined to collect your data about how YOU trade and then stick to it.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #16
  • May 4, 2021 5:54pm May 4, 2021 5:54pm
Quote
Of course!! Again it boils down to data collection. You need to parse out each trade by market and then make the same observations for each one. Some markets are more volatile than others...that is obvious so for the market you are trading what how often does the trade move in your direction? when it does, on average, how far does it go before a retrace against you? Does this retrace come back to your stop level? or can you ride it until the next impulse move? All of this data needs to be collected, collated and then averaged for each market. BUT...

I review my trades on a daily basis i.e. write why did I take a trade and why did I exit or not exit.
So, I take unidirectional trades on options and buy OTM puts and calls. So, a spot movement of 60 points converts to somewhere in between 5-7 points. This I realized when I was angry with my performance on the number of points I make on a trade. (I trade better when I'm angry, lol).
Most of the times this is a constant 7 +/- 2 points. But now I will consider spot data also.

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why is ANY profit "too small"?
Because a 50 point move in spot = 5 point move in OTM options. I will be happy if I take 10 points from the market and 20 points will make me ecstatic.

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Are you just "spitballing" these numbers or do you actually have the data to back it up?
This is my thought process . A little more, a little more.

Quote
You ability to exit (either to limit larger losses, or keep even small profits) is where the rubber meets the money making road.
Exactly.

I have been trying to think in terms of consolidation because I think that big moves originate from there. But this does not happen very often.
What does the market do prior to a big move? Any hints?

Also, this is very important, I'm scared to take multiple positions in a day, especially when 1st trade of the day is profitable. Theoretically that would be more profitable for me but I cannot gather my mental energy for it. But if I'm losing money on the day then I don't hesitate to open a new trade. This is a big mental barrier that I have to overcome.

Big Thanks for helping!! If you can keep this up then my questions won't stop.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #17
  • May 4, 2021 6:23pm May 4, 2021 6:23pm
Thanks for helping others...

So what is the strategy you follow and make you consistently profitable?...
Thanks dear mikforfac.
  • #18
  • May 5, 2021 2:58am May 5, 2021 2:58am
Quoting ghazy_55
Thanks for helping others... So what is the strategy you follow and make you consistently profitable?... Thanks dear mikforfac.
This question is very vague, I would like to focus on more specific detailed questions like what @maverick2017 is asking as from experience this is the area that yields the most profit and it is a great learning opportunity.
  • #19
  • May 5, 2021 3:12am May 5, 2021 3:12am
Quoting mikforfac
{quote} This question is very vague, I would like to focus on more specific detailed questions like what @maverick2017 is asking as from experience this is the area that yields the most profit and it is a great learning opportunity.
Hey mic,
Can you (and other experienced/profitable members) give your feedback here on the trades I take? Or would it be better if we have a different thread for it?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #20
  • Edited 3:31am May 5, 2021 3:21am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting mikforfac
Hi everyone, I’m at a stage where I am consistently profitable and would like to give back to this forum which has significantly helped me along my 6 year journey and excite the butterfly effect in your own journey. I promise I’ll get back to everyone.
Hi there, I have a couple of questions.

1, I was trading smaller timeframes and averaging breakeven, but have now moved to H4 and 1hr, this is a trail and error approach to see if i could improve my risk to reward, can you advise on your approach to risk vs reward ?

2, did you average breakeven for a long time before you started to see returns? i feel like I am on the precipice but also I think i still might not be reading the market properly,

3, do you know if traders that profit consistently have a "unique system" that is kept closely guarded? seems difficult to see past this nuance when you learn by yourself and have limited resources ( by this I mean availability of systems and opinions on the net )

4, In forex you are always buying or selling one pair against another, can you offer any advice on any resources on how one should consider the pairs corresponding strength against another in preparation to take a position?, or would you only read the market structure to offer enough clues for direction

cheers
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