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Pivot Trading

  • #38,361
  • Apr 29, 2021 1:18am Apr 29, 2021 1:18am
Quoting GreenEarth
Hi Traders , Today was one of those days. Had to take a loss. Oh well , that's trading Forex. Before I had the luxury of joining Davit's thread , I would have held on to my UC trade for dear life. Wrong mindset back then. In my opinion , POTUS better have his key people coming out with an UNBELIEVABLY MASSIVE MARKET SHAKING PACKAGE , and , in hindsight , maybe he should have announced it last night. Oh well , smarter people than me make those decisions. I was LONG UC at S61 and S78 , 2 positions , EVEN THOUGH THE MASTER TREND IS DOWN. No pullbacks...
Hey Gang ,
As my post stated , I had to take a loss today. That's trading. However , it's important to find out where you made your error if you can. Was my perspective off that day when I entered the trade , did I pay attention to my pivot's , did I pay attention to upcoming News , etc. In my particular case , I located my error. A misread of my 4HR and 1HR charts. Just one mistake that I should not have lost sight of. One detail , that was all it took. However , I'm sure that overconfidence had crept into my mental process as well. For me , Forex Trading is WAR and like Golf. YOU are the one who has to execute consistently and NOT let that ONE MENTAL ERROR cost you the battle. How many times have we seen Tiger Woods finish second in Tournaments that he should have won. ONE BAD SHOT , usually with the driver. One decision , leave the driver in the bag and use a 2 iron off the tee on the 18th hole so that accuracy was at a premium , virtually guaranteed.
I'm overjoyed that I cut my losses. I am posting my analysis so maybe I can help someone realize that he/she can be a successful trader. You will make mistakes on your journey , and the more experienced you become , hopefully , the fewer mistakes you will make. Just try your best to eliminate the STUPID MISTAKES. These are the one's that really irritate a trader.
Sincerely ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,362
  • Apr 30, 2021 10:27am Apr 30, 2021 10:27am
Hi Team ,
For those of you who trade the EU , could you let me know what caused the massive spike down in the EU.
I see that a bit of positive News came out for the USD.
Thanks for any input.

GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,363
  • Apr 30, 2021 1:40pm Apr 30, 2021 1:40pm
these were the trades i was watching
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  • #38,364
  • Apr 30, 2021 2:47pm Apr 30, 2021 2:47pm
  •  Ekim7
  • | Joined Nov 2019 | Status: Having the time of my life | 70 Posts
Quoting GreenEarth
Hi Team , For those of you who trade the EU , could you let me know what caused the massive spike down in the EU. I see that a bit of positive News came out for the USD. Thanks for any input. GE
From my limited experience, I feel EU and EC were over extended from early April. Without supporting fundamentals they've both come into correction by the same people who overbought them initially. Now we can see the market favoring CAD, so next week we should see a correction back on most CAD pairs. But anything can happens as always, just speculating. Enjoy your weekend everyone
You should really listen to what Davit says
  • #38,365
  • May 3, 2021 10:27am May 3, 2021 10:27am
I'm beginning to believe that I've finally found the edge. I know it's too soon (and believe me it is) but my results from 10 days of trading pivot points are great. Sooner or later I will have to face a drawdown and I'm ready for that (I'm keeping my order size small no matter how) and I want it to happen sooner than later because I can learn how to manage a losing trade. I'm at the very beginning steps of my learning and still learning fundamental analysis. Almost all of the trades were based on pure technical analysis, that is why I know that my edge is still incomplete. After finishing "Bird Watching In Lion Country" I'm reading "Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market" by Kathy Lien. I'm also reading online materials regarding sentiment and fundamental analysis as well as Elliot Wave Theory and Harmonic Patterns on babypips.com.

Best Regards
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  • #38,366
  • May 3, 2021 11:13am May 3, 2021 11:13am
Quoting ebitalebi
I'm beginning to believe that I've finally found the edge. I know it's too soon (and believe me it is) but my results from 10 days of trading pivot points are great. Sooner or later I will have to face a drawdown and I'm ready for that (I'm keeping my order size small no matter how) and I want it to happen sooner than later because I can learn how to manage a losing trade. I'm at the very beginning steps of my learning and still learning fundamental analysis. Almost all of the trades were based on pure technical analysis, that is why I know that...
Congratulations your profit factor is way better than mine. Continue the good work and good luck!
  • #38,367
  • May 3, 2021 1:51pm May 3, 2021 1:51pm
Quoting ebitalebi
i'm beginning to believe that i've finally found the edge. I know it's too soon (and believe me it is) but my results from 10 days of trading pivot points are great. Sooner or later i will have to face a drawdown and i'm ready for that (i'm keeping my order size small no matter how) and i want it to happen sooner than later because i can learn how to manage a losing trade. I'm at the very beginning steps of my learning and still learning fundamental analysis. Almost all of the trades were based on pure technical analysis, that is why i know that...

fantastic equity curve ebitalebi !!!!!!

Ge
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,368
  • May 3, 2021 2:04pm May 3, 2021 2:04pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Congratulations your profit factor is way better than mine. Continue the good work and good luck!
Quoting GreenEarth
{quote} fantastic equity curve ebitalebi !!!!!! Ge
Thanks a lot. I've learned lots of things here from you, Davit and other great traders here.

But I think I was lucky because I didn't analyze the market fundamentally and didn't pay attention to news releases. The only thing that I focused on was money management and cost averaging with very small lot sizes. Also I was aggressive and some of my trades were not A+ ones.

Do you have any suggestions for learning fundamental analysis other than the sources I mentioned?

I've always thought fundamental analysis is too difficult to be learned by me but this time I'm eager to learn it no matter how hard it is. (I'm not familiar with economics and I'm not a native English speaker. So I think it's going to be difficult path).

Best regards
  • #38,369
  • May 3, 2021 4:37pm May 3, 2021 4:37pm
Quoting ebitalebi
{quote} {quote} Thanks a lot. I've learned lots of things here from you, Davit and other great traders here. But I think I was lucky because I didn't analyze the market fundamentally and didn't pay attention to news releases. The only thing that I focused on was money management and cost averaging with very small lot sizes. Also I was aggressive and some of my trades were not A+ ones. Do you have any suggestions for learning fundamental analysis other than the sources I mentioned? I've always thought fundamental analysis is too difficult to be learned...
Ebitalebi , I am certainly not the person to talk to about fundamentals. However , I have learned and do pay attention to the News Calendar very keenly , especially the highly volatile News Releases which are the "Red News" items. NFP , ISM , PPI , Employment Statistics , Oil inventories , etc. My trading is 95% technical combined with pivot points , the other 5% of my trading is fundamental where I try NOT to be in front of the BIG STEAMROLLER EVENTS such as NON FARM PAYROLLS , the real biggies. My depth of understanding of the inner workings of market fundamentals is very , very shallow. One of the greatest lessons that I have learned by trading the Forex Market is a far better understanding of repeatable human behaviour. This is the key that I capitalize on in my trading now that I have it embedded in my brain , hence Pivot Point Trading. I cannot stress enough the importance of the MARK DOUGLAS SERIES--HOW TO THINK LIKE A PROFESSIONAL TRADER. Boring at times , yes , BUT , a massive wealth of crucial information. All I can say is keep doing what you are doing. You can't argue with success. Your equity curve is fantastic. Keep it up. BEST THREAD ON THE WEB !!!!
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,370
  • May 4, 2021 6:58am May 4, 2021 6:58am
Thanks GE. Great source. After you mentioned Mark Douglas Series, I found it and watched the first section. It is inspiring. Thanks. Also I want to thank Davit again for recommending Kathy Lien cause she has a brilliant mind.
I agree with you.
Best Thread on the web !!!

Best Regards.
  • #38,371
  • May 4, 2021 7:14am May 4, 2021 7:14am
Hi guys CAD is over bought cross the field specially UC CJ
Opportunity to ride the swing on rebounds to equilibrium

Drawing I did reflecting how so many going through now.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #38,372
  • May 4, 2021 8:27am May 4, 2021 8:27am
Quoting ebitalebi
Thanks GE. Great source. After you mentioned Mark Douglas Series, I found it and watched the first section. It is inspiring. Thanks. Also I want to thank Davit again for recommending Kathy Lien cause she has a brilliant mind. I agree with you. Best Thread on the web !!! Best Regards.
Ebitalebi , Davit has always pointed out Kathy Lien and , I totally agree with him.
Part 2 of that video series is where things really begin to get more interesting and extremely valuable. You have to keep re-watching this series because , at least for me I always missed that "one word" that MD said that made a MASSIVE DIFFERENCE IN MY TRADING.
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,373
  • May 4, 2021 8:35am May 4, 2021 8:35am
Quoting Davit
Hi guys CAD is over bought cross the field specially UC CJ Opportunity to ride the swing on rebounds to equilibrium Drawing I did reflecting how so many going through now. {image}
Oh Davit , that drawing is absolutely amazing and definitely depicts the environment which people currently find themselves in WORLDWIDE. FANTASTIC DRAWING !!!
Oh man , I really feel that I'm on your "wave length " in many respects.
I was going to post that , imo , the UC is ready to make a massive move Northward.
Currently LONG UC , in a big position , from 1.2320 , TP 1.2380-1.2400 , BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING.
Currently in DD , but , I believe that the UC will have a helluva time SUSTAINING a break below 1.23
Sincerely ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,374
  • May 4, 2021 11:35am May 4, 2021 11:35am
Quoting GreenEarth
{quote} Oh Davit , that drawing is absolutely amazing and definitely depicts the environment which people currently find themselves in WORLDWIDE. FANTASTIC DRAWING !!! Oh man , I really feel that I'm on your "wave length " in many respects. I was going to post that , imo , the UC is ready to make a massive move Northward. Currently LONG UC , in a big position , from 1.2320 , TP 1.2380-1.2400 , BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING. Currently in DD , but , I believe that the UC will have a helluva time SUSTAINING a break below 1.23 Sincerely , GE
Been taking profits and reloading for past couple of hours.
AFTER ALL , UC IS IN BETWEEN MAJOR PIVOTS , SO THIS IS NOT FOR EVERY TRADER !!!!
Fly in the ointment today , at least one , is the power of oil to push higher , thus affecting this pair.
I am still a USD BULL .
SOMEBODY IN THE USA HAS GOT TO WAKE UP "SLEEPY JOE" , and HARRIS HAS GOT TO GO TOO !!!! TALK ABOUT A FAILURE , AT ALL LEVELS.
SOMEBODY , PLEASE TAKE THE FEMALE MAYOR OF ATLANTA AND PUT HER IN AS PRESIDENT !!!! As for her VP , someone from the Business World who has impeccable integrity.
Still LONG UC with a big position at 1.2320
Folks , I really don't like to use Trump's quotes , but holy crap , Joe--you gotta wake up man !!!!!!
With the spike to the WPP , account up 4.26 % in the past 2 hours. I don't say this to impress anyone on this thread , I say it because these types of results are achievable for 99.99% of the people on this thread , THANKS TO DAVIT , and the many other SUPERSTAR TRADERS on this thread that I am still learning from.

Just 3 years ago , I DID NOT HAVE THE MINDSET to accomplish what I have done this morning with my account.
GREAT DAY !!!
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,375
  • May 4, 2021 6:10pm May 4, 2021 6:10pm
Quoting GreenEarth
{quote} Been taking profits and reloading for past couple of hours. AFTER ALL , UC IS IN BETWEEN MAJOR PIVOTS , SO THIS IS NOT FOR EVERY TRADER !!!! Fly in the ointment today , at least one , is the power of oil to push higher , thus affecting this pair. I am still a USD BULL . SOMEBODY IN THE USA HAS GOT TO WAKE UP "SLEEPY JOE" , and HARRIS HAS GOT TO GO TOO !!!! TALK ABOUT A FAILURE , AT ALL LEVELS. SOMEBODY , PLEASE TAKE THE FEMALE MAYOR OF ATLANTA AND PUT HER IN AS PRESIDENT !!!! As for her VP , someone from the Business World who has impeccable...
Congratulations!
As Davit mentioned before a day trader focus should be on swings. However, looking at the weekly chart of UC and the size of the down trend I think it may touch 1.2000 or even 1.1900 before going back to at least 1.2800. As I mentioned before I'm not yet familiar with fundamental analysis but I think for UC to stop and turn back we should see very negative oil news and at the same time very promising news for US economy otherwise it may take a few weeks for this train to stop and change its direction. Again as Davit mentioned before we can use overbought opportunities towards equilibrium especially now when the trend is reaching one of the lowest support levels since 2015 and is losing its momentum.

Best Regards
  • #38,376
  • May 4, 2021 6:30pm May 4, 2021 6:30pm
Quoting ebitalebi
{quote} Congratulations! As Davit mentioned before a day trader focus should be on swings. However, looking at the weekly chart of UC and the size of the down trend I think it may touch 1.2000 or even 1.1900 before going back to at least 1.2800. As I mentioned before I'm not yet familiar with fundamental analysis but I think for UC to stop and turn back we should see very negative oil news and at the same time very promising news for US economy otherwise it may take a few weeks for this train to stop and change its direction. Again as Davit mentioned...
Absolutely !!! We do need oil to recede in price , no question.
Davit's words are to be heeded indeed. Davit is absolutely uncanny and his depth of understanding of the market is incredible.
I would be surprised if the UC hit 1.2261 (S38) within 24 hours , however , I believe in all probability that it will be an all out war between the Bears and the Bulls to get there. If it does , I will add another LONG position at 1.2261
Friday is a BIG EVENT DAY for the Greenback and the Loonie.
This is already an incredibly interesting week.

Green pips to all everyone , stay safe , trade wisely
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,377
  • May 5, 2021 5:39am May 5, 2021 5:39am
Good Morning Traders
Well , the Bulls and Bears are slugging it out to get to S38 , already in the ZONE IN THE AREA.
In DD at the moment and will add another LONG position soon.
Should be a very interesting morning.
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,378
  • May 5, 2021 6:16am May 5, 2021 6:16am
Hi Folks , for anyone who followed what I was doing yesterday with my trading of the UC , IT WAS IN BETWEEN PIVOT POINTS , NOT FOR EVERYONE , YET.
Hopefully , you all saw the major rejection of the upward thrust of PA at the WPP on this 1 hour chart.
Major information that the market is giving traders an indication that the PROBABILITY of UC price action (PA) is not ready to sustain a move Northward.
Currently , many factors have been at play putting downward pressure on the USD for quite some time now.
Think of the US Economy as the MOST MASSIVE SHIP ON THE SEA IN THE WORLD. IF it wants to do a 180 degree turn of direction , it is impossible for it to turn "on a dime". Takes miles and miles and miles , thus , TIME. Now the Canadian Economy , being 1/10th of the size , is a speedboat and can turn on a dime. The Canadian Economy can be turned on a dime by 1 factor , the price of oil , which accounts for 10-12% of our GDP. Agriculture is actually Canada's largest industry.
Now , look at the multiple rejections of PA of the UC at S38. Whatever , the price of oil is THIS PARTICULAR WEEK is key. FRIDAY is going to be a very important day for this pair , in my opinion.
GE
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"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #38,379
  • Edited 8:48am May 5, 2021 7:58am | Edited 8:48am
it could happen that oil breaks an important zone

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the highest point comes before the fall
  • #38,380
  • May 5, 2021 8:57am May 5, 2021 8:57am
Quoting Pivoter
it could happen that oil breaks an important zone
Pivoter , that's exactly what I'm lookin for , coupled with more positive News out of the US. I think that Janet Yellen actually made a decent comment saying , "..might need to raise interest rates.....". However , I think it was overlooked and not fully absorbed. From my perspective , with a declining USD , the positive side is what she didn't say , and that is something like , "....we have no intention of raising interest rates....". Far better response , imo.
Roughly 4 weeks ago , I posted that oil spiked due to speculators , and it would decline very quickly , I was wrong , cut and dry. I still believe that speculators are pushing the price higher in order to lock in long term delivery prices on the commodities market at least a year from now. On a weekly chart , oil can easily get to $68 BBL.
The USD needs a real boost , and fast.
I'm putting my neck out here by stating that ," the best thing that could happen to the US Economy is to show a MASSIVE INCREASE IN VACCINATION RATES BY THE PEOPLE IN THE US FOR COVID-19". Some of you may think I'm a coconut , but , that's ok.
Remember when WALL STREET thought that BITCOIN was a joke and was , "just a passing fad caused by Millennials". Who's piling into the Crypto Market now ? Hmmm.....
Hopefully , positive News in a couple of minutes , we'll see.
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
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