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1H Swing Trading on EURUSD

  • #941
  • Apr 8, 2021 10:20am Apr 8, 2021 10:20am
ok a target!
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  • #942
  • Apr 12, 2021 7:44am Apr 12, 2021 7:44am
my congratulations for your really analytic thinking and technical approach !!! scientific background is quite recognizable (simplicity is a must) :-)
not usual to find a trader like you



entries based on price position vs average are really ok...since they are the necessary (unfortunately not sufficient) condition for any profiting trend-following trade

the real challenge is the quest for the best exit rule, either based on trailing stop ("...when you're happy with the reached profit..." just to mention one of your posts) or based on some timely (i.e. not too late) exit signal.

that's my quest...and I understand yours too!

good luck and thanks for sharing your views and your efforts.
  • #943
  • Apr 12, 2021 11:00pm Apr 12, 2021 11:00pm
Quoting tesiag
my congratulations for your really analytic thinking and technical approach !!! scientific background is quite recognizable (simplicity is a must) :-) not usual to find a trader like you entries based on price position vs average are really ok...since they are the necessary (unfortunately not sufficient) condition for any profiting trend-following trade the real challenge is the quest for the best exit rule, either based on trailing stop ("...when you're happy with the reached profit..." just to mention one of your posts) or based on some timely...
Quoting tesiag
my congratulations for your really analytic thinking and technical approach !!! scientific background is quite recognizable (simplicity is a must) :-)
Keeping things simple, that's what I try to do.

Quoting tesiag
entries based on price position vs average are really ok...since they are the necessary (unfortunately not sufficient) condition for any profiting trend-following trade.
I think that any system can be right as long as it is yours, I mean that that you have found the keys to have success with it.

Quoting tesiag
the real challenge is the quest for the best exit rule, either based on trailing stop ("...when you're happy with the reached profit..." just to mention one of your posts) or based on some timely (i.e. not too late) exit signal. that's my quest...and I understand yours too! good luck and thanks for sharing your views and your efforts.
I'm not fan of any stop because you are easily stopped out on any noise, I prefer to let the system tell me when to exit.
In my opinion, the entry is also or even more important, if you are in a good position from the beginning, you gain confidence as the trade goes in your favor and you can still make profits even if you completely miss the exit.

Thanks and good luck to you too!
I hope that you got some inspiration or ideas that could help you in your trading.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #944
  • Apr 29, 2021 10:29am Apr 29, 2021 10:29am
Quoting valseva
Hi Broketrader, thanks!!!! {image} {image} {file} {file} {image} {image}
hi
what settings and what moving averages do you use for 1h tf in the second photo?
thank you
  • #945
  • Edited 12:48am May 2, 2021 12:31am | Edited 12:48am
It's the first time in the last 2-3 years that I see a 1H trend lasting for one full month with no significant retracement, Wow !

I have been placing shorts near 1, 2, 3 and 4 blue tops which all were correct if a retracement had occurred but that didn't happen.
They all failed and I was out of gas at top 5 as the previous failures erased my account in the process.

So what's next ?

I still believe that the system is good so I had to design a way to spot those failures to make it better.

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In short, the system remains the same but with an additional rule to get out of those trades with little or no loss everytime I see the red (2,3,4) waves providing support to the prevailing trend.

Finally at top 5, the 2nd red wave clearly makes the change in direction of the trend. Hopefully I entered well before but I hesitated as I didn't have yet this protection rule in place. Next time it should be easier knowing that I have a way to exit that tells me that the current trend has not finished yet.

Let's see what this brings...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #946
  • May 2, 2021 3:36am May 2, 2021 3:36am
I'm a little confused. If you stuck with your original system you would have ridden this trend all the way to the top before you got the reverse signal. Instead it seems you've been trying to pick the top each time and selling into an established uptrend. Sorry if I missed something.
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #947
  • May 2, 2021 6:37am May 2, 2021 6:37am
Quoting Wally1953
I'm a little confused. If you stuck with your original system you would have ridden this trend all the way to the top before you got the reverse signal. Instead it seems you've been trying to pick the top each time and selling into an established uptrend. Sorry if I missed something.
You are right, but I have also found that if I can anticipate a trend direction change by any mean, it gives me the best entry position possible before the direction changes, which is clearly a top or bottom ! Except of course in this case where the trend lasted forever and you get 2,3,4 false changes. So the game now is to find out if a trend change anticipation will materialize and if not, to get out with small or no damage and try the next one.

I'm also thinking that the best solution would be to have both working together, I mean, to enter 2 trades, keeping one until direction change is confirmed and trying to anticipate with the second. That's what I'm working on right now...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #948
  • May 14, 2021 7:36pm May 14, 2021 7:36pm
Hey BT here's a variation on your strategy. Trade the trendline breaks. What do you think?
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Enter Signature
  • #949
  • May 15, 2021 12:20pm May 15, 2021 12:20pm
Quoting Don M
Hey BT here's a variation on your strategy. Trade the trendline breaks. What do you think?{image}
Hi Don M,
Have done that in the past but my issue was the false breaks.

But anyway whatever I could say, if you think it has some potential and your paper trading is OK, you should gave it a try and see, we are all unique and you could very well master one thing that I didn't in the past so you should more listen to your instinct rather than to what I or others could say.
And on your chart I see more positive numbers than negative.

Personally and despite my recent losses that are more due to my greed and some deviations than to the system itself, I'm still with the original system and doing research on it, until I find the right way to enter, stay and exit.

Good luck!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #950
  • May 17, 2021 8:28am May 17, 2021 8:28am
Hmm, I think I'm at a turning point in my trading...

I went back to the basics because I knew I was missing at least one thing, which was how to enter near the SMA and how to differentiate a touch and go from a reversal and finally I found a way to identify these with very good accuracy.

So I'm now happy with this new tool. No need anymore to chase the tops or count the waves, I will only follow the SMA direction changes when the price closes beyond it on certain conditions and this will radically simplify my trading and improve my peace of mind.

As a bonus, an additional thing that I discovered when backtesting these new entries and collecting the statistics was the balance needed for periods where I will accumulate successive losses which appear inevitably during flat markets. Until now I was simply ignoring this fact thinking that I could get quite large risks and get a win in the second, eventually the third trade after 1 or 2 losses, too optimistic and simple.

So I have been backtesting since 2020 till now and the largest accumulated pip loss that I got was 148 pips where I had 74 pips of realized losses from 3 trades + 74 pips of drawdown on the last winning trade. With that, I decided to size my trades to allow a maximum accumulated loss of 300 pips which should translate in a drawdown of 50% for the previous example, in fact it will be a bit less as I recalculate the lot size after every trade but I know, this is still big as a risk and this is because I have ambitious goals and I can live with that until the balance grows significantly.

Now, of course, all this will need to be verified with future trades because if you had seen my backtest results of projected trades you would be like me, you wouldn't believe it.

So I will be disciplined on my entries, patient with the trends and also conscious at any time that all is OK on any ongoing trade and for that I will document every trade to assess the level or quality of execution, that should help me to check that my lot size and entries are always correct.

Maybe it will work, maybe it won't but I wanted to write a word about it so maybe I can refer to it in the future.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #951
  • Edited 10:13am May 17, 2021 9:06am | Edited 10:13am
So here we are for my first trade after my previous upgrade.

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I entered initially on point A and added 2 additional trades all the way down which was too much so I closed 2 of them to correct my lot size and improve a bit my entry but this is less important as the main point here is to execute the trade correctly.

My Lot size should be : Balance / ( 300 pips * pip value) = 1472 / ( 300*10) = 0.49 Lots

So I'm a bit over-sized with this one but I will keep it as it is for this first trade.

Edit: Note how the change in trend (SMA color change) comes well after my entry, that's why I was looking for extra criteria to enter, and that's because, when the change in trend is confirmed, sometimes the price retracts to SMA but sometimes not !
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #952
  • May 17, 2021 6:37pm May 17, 2021 6:37pm
Good job BT.

Basic is always king.

I'm glad you realised about not picking tops and bottoms, that's a killer.

Also, to take note on risk management part which is most crucial of all.

Wish you all the best and good trading! I'm sure will see you at the top again!
Be like water, my friend!
  • #953
  • May 17, 2021 10:30pm May 17, 2021 10:30pm
Quoting ahmike
Good job BT. Basic is always king. I'm glad you realised about not picking tops and bottoms, that's a killer. Also, to take note on risk management part which is most crucial of all. Wish you all the best and good trading! I'm sure will see you at the top again!
Thank you!

Yes, Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication but it's a long road and tons of time spent studying the charts to get there and when you are it's obvious that it couldn't be otherwise ;-)

When you look at it, in fact, the system it's only 2 indicators, one public (SMA 96) and one that I keep private because it's a way to protect my hard work.
And that brings me the only and unique thing that I need, the Entry. Which at the same time is also my Exit, Take Profit and Stop Loss, how could it be more simple ?

And for the risk management, it's still possible that I could need to adjust it, but for sure it's already more realistic and robust than my previous one.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #954
  • May 20, 2021 6:47am May 20, 2021 6:47am
Quoting broketrader
Hmm, I think I'm at a turning point in my trading... I went back to the basics because I knew I was missing at least one thing, which was how to enter near the SMA and how to differentiate a touch and go from a reversal...
And here is the first one...

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There was a reversal period from 19h yesterday till 10h this morning, and during all that time, only one fake signal, a cross of 0.8 pip while I was asleep but which I wouldn't have traded anyway.

Let's see if following hours and day close confirm the touch & go.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #955
  • May 20, 2021 1:16pm May 20, 2021 1:16pm
Hello, i tried to find if there is a post here regarding how can we set a view with that template on MT4, do i miss that post?, something is wrong with my MT4 platform that doesn´t recognize the indicators.
  • #956
  • Edited 2:24pm May 21, 2021 1:46pm | Edited 2:24pm
Trend 16 just terminated and its corresponding trade as well with a profit of +78 pips or +31 % ! The entry and exit were 100% correct.
Entered a sell for trend 17, Lot size = 1926/(300*10) = 0,64 lots at 1.21853, Lot size and Signal are correct, entry is correct.

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Let's see how this one goes...

Trades history since last reset.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #957
  • May 25, 2021 12:30am May 25, 2021 12:30am
Second trade 21-17 ended with a loss of -57 pips as shown below.
I had a signal to reverse earlier but it was weak and limit so I preferred to wait a bit more before reversing end entering 21-18.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #958
  • May 26, 2021 6:24am May 26, 2021 6:24am
Third trade and second consecutive loss with -22 pips.
The signal is at the limit again like before but I traded it with the risk of it bein a fake one, we will see.

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My win rate is at it lowest, 33%, the system is being tested right now...

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #959
  • May 31, 2021 8:57am May 31, 2021 8:57am
Another one which should be the last for May, this time positive with +14.5 pips, and I'm in for the next 21-20 trend...

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My win rate is neutral at 50% and I'm in long for the 21-20 trend. All executions are OK so far.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #960
  • Jun 3, 2021 8:58am Jun 3, 2021 8:58am
Trend 21-20 terminated with another minimal loss of -8 pips.
It looks like now the pair has found it's direction in 21-21, let's see tomorrow if NFP confirms it or if it's just another fake swing...

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Win Rate is at a too low 40 % but the balance is still above the initial value of $1234 after reset.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
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