Daily forecast for leisurely Index trading 50:50 chance

Hong Kong Challenge
Trading rationale: Missed Market Open Hours.

So triggered trade after seeing Big Candle.

Selected ANY and ANY with no bias for any direction.

EA chose to Sell. Not me.

I feel lazy in the mind after having put in most of my experience of floating with the market in this EA with no pre-analysis, no pre-conceived entry bias.

Using the good office of my EA ambassador, I have made the market makers my allies. The market makers have free rein as to buy or sell. I just hope they leave me money at the end of the day. I am hoping they will take away 30% and leave for me 70% of gains in the Positive Expectancy game.

India Challenge

I did not trade for open hours as I was busy.
There was not enough momentum in the later hours I chose.
Forced to close all positions by TF exit route.
No loss , anyway.

DAX challenge

Now the hot hours should be of known economic releases at 8.30 am NY. (12.30 pm GMT).

Let me take a look at the FF calendar for the week. No major known news event today.

So I will now wait for New York to open.

A free lesson in how to trade economic calendar. I am not promoting any broker but free webinars from any one is always welcome.

Hi Simnz, Sir
Hope you're having a great day

Downloaded and attached your EA on demo acc.

Just a few questions to ask if you do not mind.

1) Does it work well on FX curriensies?

2) Does the EA scans all the pairs (I've listed in inputs) and take trades by itself?

3) Will it trade several pairs?

THanks for your kind advice

Regards

It will work on any symbol offered by the broker.
It has a very few inputs and spend 10 minutes on trying out each input rather than asking questions.
I am not here to provide any hand holding.
I have shown how to trade. I have provided the explanations for the inputs.
I have done real live demonstrations. If you still can't understand or have little time to work, then better you don't use the EA.

Thank you Sir for your kind and detailed reply
I did spend some time to work and haven't seen any trades to be taken that's why referred to you

Sorry for bothering and

Thanks again

Have a great day

So first focus on understanding how EAs work.
Try to learn about each and every input in the EA.
Never give up if you are a serious learner .
You got everything free, and you have to give a lot of time to learning.
If you feel still lost, then look for some other EA and study their inputs as well.

You are not alone in displaying this attitude of not taking learning seriously.
I have received a few PMs.

A senior member who has been hunting for indicators, ideas, EAs, since 2006 expects me to deliver a car with key so that he can just drive the car by using the key.l
Imagine a person spending his 15 years time on FF having such an attitude.

FREE LUNCH requires you to open mouth, use hands to push food into it.

FREE lunch has no value and so most of the guys have become too demanding. They demand unreasonable and unrealistic things without any shame. No regard for other people's times.

FF has very few people left sharing their experiences using their own time and resources. Such people have been mostly driven away by FF members who have turned FF into a gossip forum.

=====
Shocking to say the very least, Simnz.
Please reread that PM when you're less agitated or perhaps in a quiet state of mind.
That driver was YOU.
Carry on with your ranting as long as you quote in context.
All the best to you.
Hercs.

Most of the traders neglect basics. Otherwise, trading is not complicated as long as you are properly capitalized and are using the money which is not going to affect your existing lifestyle substantially.

You don't have to stick to FX.

Now CFDs are available for all kinds of instruments including stocks. Far better to trade them.

Stock index is a product that provides a lot of volatility, far more than FX pairs.

ADR of Dow Jones is 350 ticks (pips) . GBPJPY ADR is 200 pips.

When calculated on the basis of daily ADR, a good broker should not charge more than 2.5% including spreads and round turn.

Most of CFD brokers are market makers. You have to do some due diligence and avoid them at all costs.

Interactive Brokers is the best in price and reliability. But like MT4 you can't use an EA.

If you understand trading and are in a position to take a view of the market by pre-analysis or instant analysis by looking at the chart, you can
try to find EAS that can execute a few transactions instantly in that direction.
For this, your timing is very important.

Stock indices can be traded with a small amount as well.
.
I choose an amount equivalent to Stop Loss and divide it into 10 lots.

Use any method to detect strong movement. Don't make it complicated. Just one indicator should be enough.

Direction bias is established by trending indicators.

EA is useful if you use it to jump on the momentum train .

A skilled trader who waits for a momentum period (news trading) or jumps into trading when news breaks out of incidents like Corona, Iran attack, and such geopolitical events can easily make 100% a month using the Random Trader EA.

You have to make a scanner kind of statistical indicator which can give an idea of momentum timing. You can use build an MT4 File spreadsheet maker to generate such types of probability studies.

Idea is to identify times of momentum and the frequency of 25 to 50 pips sized trades.

In the case of stock indexes, everybody knows the hot hours are Opening hour and closing hour. Because when the auction market opens and closes, transactions are more than usual.

Focus on a single trading method and single trading symbol.

For instance, yesterday I made 25% of the return on the margin deposit in a day. Nothing to guess. Just jump on the momentum train using Random Trader EA.
Conduct forward testing for 3 months.

Hot trading hours will work 90% of the time as far as the intensity of the volume is concerned.

For those trading on direction bias and EA need to focus on the following:

1. Your view on Direction
Direction is decided by Any_way/Buy/Sell on First trade if there are

2. Your choice of Entry Open TF
3. Your selection of unrealistic TP
4. Your way of exit by TP or by Close of TF.

For a change, I am going to trade live GBPUSD opions.

Having analyzed the chart I have decided to consider 1.3830 as the support line. That price will first drop to 1.3830.


My choice is:

1.Buy both Put (bearish view ) at 1.41 present market price (called at the money) and Buy Call at 1.38 (called deep in the money if I have a view the price will first drop to 1.38 and bounce back to hit 1.45 ) - all within 9 days.

2.If I want to trade just a bearish view, I will either (a) buy a futures option capping my risk at the purchase price or (b) a debit spread which will reduce my risk of losing all the purchase price while keeping the risk capped.

Let me go back to the Options chain which shows the premium quotes.

Based on the view in Point 1, I would buy Put Options to benefit from the drop in the present strike price of 1.41 (Buying involves me paying upfront all the premium) and buy Call at 1.38 as will. This will not involve a margin deposit as I am buying outright both options. My risk is capped. I would gain if the price drops to 1.38 and bounces back in 3 or 4 days and touches 1.45 .



2. I would buy debit spread Put (view the price will drop to 1.38) with profit to loss-share 1:1 with small investment shown in the profile as Minvest. Risk is capped and profit is limited.

3. I would buy Put (view price will drop to 1.38) which requires an investment of purchase premium and use Call to sell (view price will touch 1.38 and lower) to earn a premium to finance the Put option. This would require an investment of a good-faith margin deposit where you will benefit most when both Put touches 1.38 and Call loses premium at this point. Both options should be liquidated together in one go. Maximum Profit with this strategy.

My Preference:
4. I would simply buy Put (view the price will start dropping fast towards 1.38) and my loss is capped at my purchase price. Profit will depend upon how quickly the price drops. It will be unlimited. Substantial profit will happen if the price drops within a day or two. It is like a sports bet or horse race for which I don't have to wait for the 1.38 to be touched. Important is the speed of the drop.



5. I would simply sell Call (view the price will drop to 1.38). Selling involves uncapped loss. So I buy insurance to cap my loss in case my view is wrong and the price keeps increasing surpassing the market price). Limited loss and limited profit.

Finally placed an order for cheap option with a strike (forecast) price at 100 pips less with a view that it will drop by 200 pips within next 3 days.
Let me wait for the order to be executed.

The premium finally I paid was 37 pips .
I will make money ONLY when the price keeps dropping at a faster speed.
You can be right on the DIRECTION and yet you can lose because of time decay ( for which you have paid the premium) not happening very fast.
It is an option of short duration, so I must make profit in next 2 days or cut loss by liquidating the option and look for another opportunity.
No need to lose all premium on HOPEFUL trading.

Why did I take this bet?

This week a lot of GBP related data releases are due. So volatility will be there. It may go in my favour or it may work against my position.

In short 50: 50 chance

Most of news positive about GBP. Not favour my view. Will wait for market to see how it reacts to the last event this day Gov BoE speech later and decide to liquidate bought option and take a loss.

Market has reacted favourably to my bearish view but it is not strong enough to take profit or any hope that I can save time decay
So I have to sell and entered TP (TP for 42 pips . My cost 37 pips.) Breakeven basically.

If after two to three hours, the existing price of 31 cents does not improve, I will take a loss rather than wait for HOPEFUL results.

Since the Long candle has hit twice 1.4150. So I am taking it as a rejection of 1.4150 and expecting a reversal in which case my TP may be hit. If reversal happens with speed, I will change the TP because it is likely the drop may turn my positions into at the money/or slightly in the money position.

It has taken 14 H4 candles to keep rising with small dips from 1.3830. So a major correction today can be expected before the London fx market closes in another two hours.

Now seeing the speed of the way price is dropping I have revised the Put options TP to 50 cents TP.
Encouraged by the change in the trend, I was tempted enough to sell Fx spot 2 standard contracts at 1.4119 with TP at 1.41050.

Let me use the Option term of Delta which is now 30%. Quick Delta increase will be good for me. For the put price to hit 50% delta and more (when it will benefit my view), it should happen quickly and today.
If it hits tomorrow, it will not help me much.

It took 40 minutes for the 2 contracts of spot trades to hit TP of 69 pips profit. So looks like now it is breaking down with acceleration gaining speed.
Put option has now achieved breakeven.

Now Waiting for Put TP at 50 pips which will give me a profit of 12 pips on investment of 38 pips (including commission cost).