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Rearden's Journal

  • #461
  • Edited 5:26pm Apr 22, 2021 5:11pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting Rearden
22 April no bias down move The price closed below the white line at 2014 but didn't close or hold below the 1.2 BRN. It went back up. I have seen this earlier too. Price turning in to the opposite move but holding at the BRN if its near. I have also seen this when Price breaking out of an area then on revisit turns in to a down move but holding at the low of the candle which broke out of the area and then going up. Also, the trade was in 40+ pips profit. I held it because I saw that the price was respecting the white line whole of last week and...
Price came down to hit my Target at 2004 for 29+64 pips. I see that the market has poked the Previous swing low(21 April). The price has not made a new high yesterday and it has not closed below the 21 April swing too. So I will see if the price will range for a while before the next move up or down.

Since today is Friday I will wait before I enter any position. The pivot and MA is around the same area. The risk of taking a short from there is quite high. If the price come all the way up to 2050 to yesterday's high and give an action early during London session then I will enter as a #1 short. I will wait.
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  • #462
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:26pm Apr 25, 2021 5:26pm
Weekly Summary 19 April to 23 April

The week opened with the prices dropping down to the 1950 RN and also the white line. My Analysis for the day the day was good but when I executed it I exited early. Some clues which could have helped me is the 1.price rejecting from the 1950 area and closing back above the 1950 area and 2. The MA had not turned to the downside fully. The next long went up for +40 pips but since I missed the previous trade it affected and I held it more expecting it to change the direction from white line. The price gave clues(LHs) before changing the direction. The price turned from the BRN to the upside and visited those again and went up.
Few Lesson learned this week
1. When price is not doing what you want it to do exit immediately.
2. Understand the market context and see if market gives clues and reacts from areas which supports the dominant direction.
3. Don't let the previous trade result affect your decision making for the current trade.
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  • #463
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:34pm Apr 25, 2021 5:34pm
UP bias Up move

The price is back to UP Bias and above the 1.2 BRN. It has also reached the previous swing high in daily TF around 2100 BRN. Since it is at this location, I will see if price break the Friday high first before I enter a long from the pivot or MA. The white line is around 100+ pips below. I will also pay attention to how price reacts to the aggressive swing at the 2050 area.
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  • #464
  • Apr 26, 2021 5:29pm Apr 26, 2021 5:29pm
27 April
Up Bias Down move

The price turned to a down move but has poked the previous highs. Since this is an up bias week and the price is in a down move I will wait for the price to either close above the white line or hold below the S50 and then come back up and hold above the S50 for a #3b trade. The MA is supporting.
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  • #465
  • Apr 27, 2021 5:58pm Apr 27, 2021 5:58pm
28 April

Up Bias Down move

Last time when it was up bias and there was a #3b, the MA was pointing up. Here the MA have started going sideways. Ystr, the price came back above the MA and held above, went below and then held below. Today morning the price has come and held above the MA again(Also the pivot). I see that the price coming down from the 2093 area. I have placed a PO at the bottom of the channel. If price hold below the 2050 area, I will exit. I will also see how it reacts around the 2070 area.
The price is near the previous swing high in Daily TF.
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  • #466
  • Apr 28, 2021 10:22am Apr 28, 2021 10:22am
Quoting Rearden
28 April Up Bias Down move Last time when it was up bias and there was a #3b, the MA was pointing up. Here the MA have started going sideways. Ystr, the price came back above the MA and held above, went below and then held below. Today morning the price has come and held above the MA again(Also the pivot). I see that the price coming down from the 2093 area. I have placed a PO at the bottom of the channel. If price hold below the 2050 area, I will exit. I will also see how it reacts around the 2070 area. The price is near the previous swing high...
The market came down and respected the yesterday low and went up. But since I saw the retest of MA and hold below I exited. But I feel that this was a good area which offered a trade with least risk.
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  • #467
  • Apr 28, 2021 6:25pm Apr 28, 2021 6:25pm
29 April
Up Bias Up move
The price is back to up move. The FOMC news helped to break the BRN and also close above the white line. The yesterday trade was more of a edge to middle trade after a hold above the S50. I placed a PO at the weekly open area for long. I will see if the price breaks the yesterday high before a retrace. If then I will place a PO at the pivot as well.
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  • #468
  • Apr 29, 2021 6:56pm Apr 29, 2021 6:56pm
Quoting Rearden
29 April Up Bias Up move The price is back to up move. The FOMC news helped to break the BRN and also close above the white line. The yesterday trade was more of a edge to middle trade after a hold above the S50. I placed a PO at the weekly open area for long. I will see if the price breaks the yesterday high before a retrace. If then I will place a PO at the pivot as well. {image}
When the price broke the Wednesday high, came down and held above the Ystr open I had placed a PO which triggered later. The price came down to the Pivot and started going up. The price has also closed above the Pivot and MA.

Today, the price has opened below the pivot and above the MA. It has given a LH when coming down. The price is still in an up bias up move. The direction of MA is to the upside. The distance to white line makes me a bit worried. So I will close if there is a hold below the 2100. I want to see the break and hold above the pivot.
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  • #469
  • May 2, 2021 7:48pm May 2, 2021 7:48pm
Weekly summary 26 April to 30th April

I repeated the same mistake which I did the week before. I didn't exit When I saw the price failing to break higher. So the learning of this week is same as that of last week. I have been experiencing this over and over again. I believe why I do this is because of fear of missing the move after I exit (since its in an up move). But the move hasn't happened anytime until now. Every time it eventually came down and I exited. The key learning for this week is same as that of the last week.
1. When price is not doing what you want it to do exit immediately.
2. Understand the market context and see if market gives clues and reacts from areas which supports the dominant direction.
3. Don't let the previous trade result affect your decision making for the current trade.
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  • #470
  • May 2, 2021 8:24pm May 2, 2021 8:24pm
03 May No Bias down move

The market made a big move with momentum on Friday and turned to a down move. I have observed that when this happens it usually continues in the same direction without retracement to the the Pivot and MA. The price is close to the previous swing low and also the BRN. The white line is 100+ pips away from the low. The pivot is around the 2050 area. Since there is a huge distance to the white line, I will not place a PO at the pivot. I have placed a PO from where has retested and came down on Friday. This will coincide with the #3 entry. If price close above the #3, I will exit. I will see if there is repeated rejection from the pivot before I enter.
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  • #471
  • May 3, 2021 7:00pm May 3, 2021 7:00pm
04 May 2021
No Bias down move

The price went up to test the MA. The price was consistently closing above the pivot for the last week except Friday. Yesterday it went back up to close above the pivot. Also the price just poked the last weeks low and went up. The price went up with good momentum. But it didn't manage to close or hold above the S50. The direction of the MA is to the downside. Since the price is in a down move and the white line is quite far I will wait before I take a short. I will watch out for Price action higher at the 2127-2150 area to short and also at this week open to see if there is action for long as well. I will note take it . But will watch how the action develops. For now, I will stay in the sidelines.
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  • #472
  • May 4, 2021 6:18pm May 4, 2021 6:18pm
05 May 2021
No Bias down move
The price had poked the low on Monday, went up tested the MA and came down. I should have taken a short from the MA because no candle held above the MA. Even if the price goes against me I can exit when there is a hold above the MA. I will put this in my weekly learnings. Also, Since the 2000 level is near by there is a chance for the price to test that area. The price in a down move, the price under S50 and also the BRN.

Today, the price has already tested the BRN area once. On the second test it failed to go lower and it is at the previous swing low. So I will wait before I place any short orders. I will see the action around the S50 and also at the 2050-75 area near the white line before I attempt any short.
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  • #473
  • May 5, 2021 6:49pm May 5, 2021 6:49pm
06 May 2021
No bias down move.

The price reacted from the pivot and came down yesterday and gave a possible 30 pips trade. Since its close to the BRN and also the previous swing low I didn't place the PO at the Pivot.

Today the price has opened below the Pivot and MA around the 1.2000 BRN. There is no much movement. I will wait and see if the price holds above the pivot and BRn. If so I will not short. I will be at the sidelines. If I get PA at the pivot area I will short and close the trade if there is a hold above the MA. I am not sure if the price is going to range between the weekly open area and also the ystr low.
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  • #474
  • May 6, 2021 4:57pm May 6, 2021 4:57pm
07 May

No Bias Up move
The price has turned to an UP move from the BRN . It was one straight move with good momentum. As per the set up I am trying now, I have to enter straight away . But I see that there is NFP releasing today and its Friday. . I have placed a PO near the MA. If the price fails to break higher and come down, I will exit because of the news release.
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  • #475
  • May 9, 2021 6:25pm May 9, 2021 6:25pm
Weekly Summary 03 May to 07 May

On 05th my observation was "The price had poked the low on Monday, went up tested the MA and came down. I should have taken a short from the MA because no candle held above the MA. Even if the price goes against me I can exit when there is a hold above the MA."

I was trying not to take a losing trade when the goal should be to take the trade when the rules meet and reduce the loss when the set up is not working. The reason for this is 'you dont know when a trade will work for sure. You can only trade in high probabilities not certainty'. this applies to taking entries and exit as well.

Also, the price made Higher lows around the 1.2 BRN and gave a PA for long with minimal risk. I will not take this kind of trades now since the market was in down move.
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  • #476
  • May 9, 2021 6:38pm May 9, 2021 6:38pm
10 May 2021
Up Bias, Up move

The market turned back in to an up move and closed above the April high. Also, It is approaching the previous swing highs. I placed a long PO at the Pivot .
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  • #477
  • May 11, 2021 6:27pm May 11, 2021 6:27pm
12 May 2021

UP Bias UP move

The market didn't make a huge move on Monday. It poked and came down. I had removed my PO when I saw that it was not triggered. On Tuesday, when price closed back above the MA I entered long and also kept a PO at the Monday Low area. Both triggered. I took profit at the top for 35+26 pips.

The price is around the previous swing highs in HTF. The price is in a range. It has poked the top but closed below the MA. I will either wait for the price to recapture the MA by holding above or wait for the price to reach the edge to take a long.
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  • #478
  • May 12, 2021 8:48pm May 12, 2021 8:48pm
So, how do you feel you are progressing? Following basic rules? Adding rules? Etc?

Looks like you have had some outstanding trades and identified some mental blocks... which is always good.
Be bullish on you.
  • #479
  • May 12, 2021 8:53pm May 12, 2021 8:53pm
13 May 2021
Up Bias UP move

No trades for yesterday. the price closed below the MA and came down further.

A bit late to the chart today. The price is below the MA and the pivot. But it has reached the white line. I could have entered straight away at the open since it was close to the white line. I missed that since I was late to open the the charts. I will wait to see if the market gives me an entry close to yesterday low or 2057 area.
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  • #480
  • May 13, 2021 6:39pm May 13, 2021 6:39pm
Quoting gejordan
So, how do you feel you are progressing? Following basic rules? Adding rules? Etc? Looks like you have had some outstanding trades and identified some mental blocks... which is always good.
Hi G,
Yes I feel I am progressing. But at a slower pace. I am able to follow the basic rules in general but at times when it comes to entry after a taking a loss or missing an entry I become extra careful and read too much into charts without keeping it simple. I had tested few set up and add some rules which was not a good thing to do all at once. But I identified this and have scaled down to testing only one set up now.

I had some good trades. Most of my bad trades came after missing a good trade and trying to compensate for the missed trades. So I hold it more. The main take away I am trying to implement now is to, exit when price is not doing what I want it to do especially when it has reached other significant areas.
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