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EURUSD only

  • #130,761
  • Apr 23, 2021 12:17pm Apr 23, 2021 12:17pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Get ready for 1.3 to 1.4.
you name it! what time horizon do you have in mind?
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,762
  • Apr 23, 2021 12:28pm Apr 23, 2021 12:28pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Get ready for 1.3 to 1.4.
Hey q, a rather bold statement at this point, and without the stutters, don't you think? As a long-term trader, even 1.3 to 1.4 seems out of my realm. Just saying Anyway time will tell.
Cheers
Trade to trade another day
  • #130,763
  • Apr 23, 2021 12:51pm Apr 23, 2021 12:51pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Average Discount Everything
  • #130,764
  • Apr 23, 2021 12:56pm Apr 23, 2021 12:56pm
Hm... the more "now it should go down" on the poor retailer side, the more it goes up...
(red short, blue long)
Attached Image
Average sentiment from https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio?filter=EURUSD
  • #130,765
  • Apr 23, 2021 1:19pm Apr 23, 2021 1:19pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Get ready for 1.3 to 1.4.
Please, be serious! EU was bankrupt before covid...covid made things worse...and an exchange rate above 1.20 is killing the little part of the economy that is left...if you think ECB would let euro go towards 1.30, let alone 1.40, you shouldn't be trading.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #130,766
  • Apr 23, 2021 1:21pm Apr 23, 2021 1:21pm
Quoting Traderview
If it's a long kiss it could go to 1.2070 +/– 30 pips but it has to give it to 1.20. {image}
So this was Traderviews trend line view on Sunday 18th:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Here we are today:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I just see that my famous 1.19373 is the 61.8%...
  • #130,767
  • Apr 23, 2021 1:23pm Apr 23, 2021 1:23pm
This slow move throughout highest level of the month and breaking 1.2080 in silence of friday last hours is something making bears happy!
Maybe add some short here! Following PA.
Let's see
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #130,768
  • Apr 23, 2021 1:30pm Apr 23, 2021 1:30pm
if the market is irregular, the price movement will be chaotic and random
The Average Discount Everything
  • #130,769
  • Apr 23, 2021 1:38pm Apr 23, 2021 1:38pm
Quoting yvestrcz
My guess for the rest of the day would be that this is going up some more, such as 1.2094, just to screw up some more shorts. Have a great weekend folks! Done for the day.
Hmmm, now only few pips from there indeed...
  • #130,770
  • Apr 23, 2021 1:58pm Apr 23, 2021 1:58pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Please, be serious! EU was bankrupt before covid...covid made things worse...and an exchange rate above 1.20 is killing the little part of the economy that is left...if you think ECB would let euro go towards 1.30, let alone 1.40, you shouldn't be trading.
I too think that it will go there. The ECB can do nothing about it, they have no mandate to target the euro. OECD purchasing power parity has climbed well above 1.40, that is the long term fair value. An improving world economy will most probably push the USD down further. If you are so certain that we will not reach 1.30 you should sell millions of call options with strikes above 1.30 and be rich soon. For long maturities the premium is high enough.

Also an exchange rate above 1.20 is killing nothing and the EU was never bankrupt, what are you talking about? There was a high political risk of Italy leaving which would have caused lots of disruptions which weighed on the euro and this risk got actually eliminated for the time beimg because of the Covid rescue fund. Europe will do fine.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,771
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:05pm Apr 23, 2021 2:05pm
Posted this awhile ago 1.2700
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily MCF3.png Size: 78 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #130,772
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:14pm Apr 23, 2021 2:14pm
In my own view I think we just few more pips before the bears set in, hopefully next week.

Immma short all the way down to 1.9s

Please Let's all share our analysis for the upcoming week
Once again happy weekend guys.
  • #130,773
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:25pm Apr 23, 2021 2:25pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Short squeeze did not work out, made a small profit to 1.1995. Bulls are continuing to move up to 1.2108 next target maybe today.{image}
Adjusting exit to 1.2103
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #130,774
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:50pm Apr 23, 2021 2:50pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Adjusting exit to 1.2103

same exit for me.
But I think I'm going to close the week with a sell order @ exit point.

Still positive on strong bears next week.
  • #130,775
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:52pm Apr 23, 2021 2:52pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} I too think that it will go there. The ECB can do nothing about it, they have no mandate to target the euro. OECD purchasing power parity has climbed well above 1.40, that is the long term fair value. An improving world economy will most probably push the USD down further. If you are so certain that we will not reach 1.30 you should sell millions of call options with strikes above 1.30 and be rich soon. For long maturities the premium is high enough. Also an exchange rate above 1.20 is killing nothing and the EU was never bankrupt,...
While they have no mandate to target exchange rates directly, they must take exchange rates into account for the things they do target, which can then indirectly affect exchange rates. Draghi hinted at this more than once IIRC. As for PPP, we can always ask the same pricing questions as with any instrument - why has the market not yet priced in the long-term fundamentals if they are so certain? Will PPP remain there patiently while the market price catches up, or will it be somewhere else by that time? And, which central bank is more likely to remove accommodation sooner? I think it'll be the Fed, but I could be wrong.
  • #130,776
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:54pm Apr 23, 2021 2:54pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} I too think that it will go there. The ECB can do nothing about it, they have no mandate to target the euro. OECD purchasing power parity has climbed well above 1.40, that is the long term fair value. An improving world economy will most probably push the USD down further. If you are so certain that we will not reach 1.30 you should sell millions of call options with strikes above 1.30 and be rich soon. For long maturities the premium is high enough. Also an exchange rate above 1.20 is killing nothing and the EU was never bankrupt,...
I am telling you EU is bankrupt, if you believe it or not, its up to you. But if you can read economic numbers(real ones, not the colored ones posted here) from various countries, you would know that it has been bankrupt long time ago and due for a complete overhaul. Its basic math...if you spend much more than you make, you are bankrupt. Covid is a nice excuse, to blame everything on it and maybe use it as a new start, but I doubt that...since the bureaucracy is not going anywhere, so any solution will be only short term.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #130,777
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:57pm Apr 23, 2021 2:57pm
haha and i am telling you the US is bankrupt, way more indebded by now, all relative..
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,778
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:58pm Apr 23, 2021 2:58pm
People are very predictable...I wrote the text below when EU was around 1900 and most people already short.

Attached Image
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #130,779
  • Apr 23, 2021 2:59pm Apr 23, 2021 2:59pm
Quoting nic9man
haha and i am telling you the US is bankrupt, way more indebded by now, all relative..
Many US states are already open, with life back to normal...while Europeans are locked down like cattle. US will be fully recovered before EU bureaucrats wake up.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #130,780
  • Apr 23, 2021 3:04pm Apr 23, 2021 3:04pm
Quoting bartholemew
{quote} While they have no mandate to target exchange rates directly, they must take exchange rates into account for the things they do target, which can then indirectly affect exchange rates. Draghi hinted at this more than once IIRC. As for PPP, we can always ask the same pricing questions as with any instrument - why has the market not yet priced in the long-term fundamentals if they are so certain? Will PPP remain there patiently while the market price catches up, or will it be somewhere else by that time? And, which central bank is more likely...
yes but in case you missed it: while the ecb was concerned about the role of a strong euro for inflation for some time in dec/jan, they later corrected their stance and issued a piece stating that their models might well overestimate the role of the euro. (behind the scenes the fed probably warned them not to get into direct curremcy manipulation).

ppp is just a long term anchor but G10 currencies usually revert every 5 years on average. sure sooner or later the fed will go ahead and increase rates, but this is rather a trade for next year or so. because when the global recovery picks up the dollar usually loses. moreover there is a real risk that the fed cannot act independently any more due to the high indebdedness of the US. raising rates too much could cause fiscal problems. if such an impression came up the usd would be dumped down the toilet, not 1 or 2 cents but rather 10 or 20 cents.
Another day, another dollar.
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