Daily forecast for leisurely Index trading 50:50 chance

As a result of me sharing my entire 36 years of experience mainly to benefit the retirees and pensioners looking for passive income as well as for using demo trading as a brain exercise, the feedback I get is like this:

1. My lessons on Practice Regimen: Have you done anything about it?
A: Sorry, I have no time to do it.

2. My suggestion on finding free Experts or Mentors with at least 15 years of experience to act as guides free of cost, not as paid teachers or coaches:
A: Sorry I am lazy enough to do that even though you have provided a 10-minute checklist to find them.

3. If you don't want to be a self-directed trader, at least become proficient in executing transactions on the MT4 platform: Understand what is Lot management, risk controls, breakeven, trailing stop, TP, Equity, Margin management, etc.
A: Sorry again, I feel lazy enough to do that.

4. I have mentioned about EAs managing trade execution, why don't you try them?
A: Sorry again, the idea does not appeal to me.
But I do want EA. Yes, Yes, please I want it badly.

5. Why do you want EAs? Do you understand any logic or strategy of trading?
A: Well, my understanding is that EAs do all that.

6. EAs can do all that. Agreed. But will you do some backtesting or forward testing?
A: Sorry again. No, I have no time for that. So many FF members are already doing that. Why should I?

7. Do you want the EA for entertainment or making money?
A: Some answers: I want entertainment. A few want both.

8. Do you want to put real money betting on EA?
A: Money I have. Yes. If I have to make a choice between using money and time. I would choose money.
A few people said they are interested in pure entertainment using demo trading EA and this question does not apply to them.

The conclusion is this:
I want to have money without learning how to make money. It is as simple as that.

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It is for THEM or those who want to trade like "driving a car without knowing how a gearbox works"

I am setting up this thread on sourcing Indicators and EAs which can address this crowd of easy money seekers or "effortless success."

To begin the ball rolling, I am providing a free EA with mql to act as a building block for learners and traders of all levels: Beginner, Intermediate and Advanced.

I would welcome EA developers to post their EAs here for feedback. Those who will post mql file can expect to get better feedback and from experienced traders.

I just read a post by FF member tommydoginti at one of the threads on brutal truth of trading.

"I think it depends on how each person treats trading. But it does not dictate the performance IMO.

Some see trading as a technical game, enter when a setup forms and exit when a signal comes or violates.
Some factor in the world events to determine bias that lasts for a certain period of time.
Both can be executed and reap profit from the market hence these different approaches still exist nowadays.

Some may drill into the mechanism behind how the market works, some try to catch the "trading psychology", some simply pick a tool/indi and trade.
Execution of trades can be simply systematic with or without knowing the details, like driving a car does not require knowing how gearbox works."

LEARN TRADING FROM A MACHINE BASED ON MY ACTUAL TRADING EXPERIENCE



I have no control over the market forces. I accept what is served to me by way of random trading.
That kind of thinking gave birth to the idea of random trader EA.

EA is designed by me based on my real trading experience. It is programmed in such a way you can trade without knowing any strategy or trading tactic.
Just follow instructions. And gain the first-hand experience by forward-testing or demo practice without any coach holding your hand.

The logic is to take part in the pre-open, start, post-open, or other hot hours of the auction market when it becomes very active and liquid.

What you should know is:
1. Which CFD symbol you want to trade? And why? You have to find by yourself looking at websites or FF.
I have explained the methodology to select the symbol that suits my risk appetite, familiarity with the US stock market index and personality
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13331501

For me, it is Dow Jones 30 CFD

2. What will be a realistic profit goal and a Stop Loss control that will benefit you? Based on volatility statistics available on FF and websites or from your own experience.
From my experience presently it works well. Dow Jones Profit target 30 TP and SL target 120. It changes from time to time.
Which means in the existing EA you have to input 3 for 30 TP and 12 for 120 SL.

3. Active Hours (Market time changed to Broker server time for inputting in the EA): Roughly 23 hours.
You can take a look at any trading or economic event calendar site.

Asia: From 1.00 NY Time to 5 am NY to 3 pm during which hours Asian markets are active.
Germany stock cash market: From 3 am NY to 5 am NY during which German and UK markets join.
US data release announcements: 8.30 am 9.30 am
US stock cash market: 9.30 am to 12 noon.

I have no specific suggestions to offer on which hours to trade. You have to put in some effort in finding it out by yourself.
Try all hours and observe the movements.

4. Fully automated is Start of working time: HH: MM when trades will be entered by the EA
Stop of working Time: HH:MM.

If your trades are not exited by Taking Profit or Stop Loss then Stop Time will exit all trades.

Fully automated trading is done by selecting (a) Time to open entries with TF (b) directional bias Buy or Sell or No bias (Any direction) (c) TF to close positions in addition to entry and exit entries.

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The trader who collects statistics from the web or by forward-testing will ultimately be in a strong position to use TIME ( Hot hours) and
be able to spot probable range trading or sideway trading opportunities after 3 months of demo forward testing and observation.

Good luck!

Random EA trader in Action

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DULL Timings just for showing EA DEM0

Because of the selection of realistic profit targets, all trades went into profit.
It took 70 minutes.
If hot hours are selected, it could be 5 minutes for TP and 10 to 15 minutes for SL never for one moment knowing which side will be hit first.
That's why I also call it a 50:50 chance trade as the market is controlled by unseen and undocumented forces of demand and supply.

Trading with some element of certainty



Veteran trader Jack Schwager in the preface of one of his Market Wizards books says: "There are a million ways to make money in markets. The irony is that they are all very difficult to find."

My EA is one such endeavor that captures my discretionary way of trading without using any systematic application of math, logic, or so-called trading wisdom.

More or less you can say it is some kind of opportunistic knack or skill of detecting momentum that has developed over years as a result of a real trading practice regimen followed by me for my entertainment.

The best part I realize I am not trading with total uncertainty as far as one aspect of the market is concerned. That is about known working hours of the market.
Unknown or black swan events will happen from time to time but no one can point out at which hour or when.

Anyone can expect market auction bidding to start vigorously during open and closing hours. As and when institutions start working in different markets, the liquidity starts increasing. And traders having different agendas will start bidding on the market and as new markets start merging the liquidity creates price direction and volatility uncertainty.

Thanks for bringing me here. It's a good EA based on your trading result. I have stopped testing any free EA in this forum as it's just wasting of time to do forward and backward test. Presently I'm using paid EA running in three different live accounts, three VPS with same broker. EA has run one account for three weeks, second account two weeks and another is a week with overall 17% return, DD in one account is 6.43% with the rest less than 5%. I feel it's enough for me at this moment and I may go for few more live accounts in other broker.

Anyway, thanks contacting me. Cheers.

This idea of firing space rockets comes when you feel strong trending is going to happen comes from FF member MoneyZilla, a veteran trader.

1. Use the leverage in such a way, as the space rockets get launched?
Burn fuel just to leave the atmosphere.
What does this mean in trading?
You see your setup, it seems you see some really good ones, but you can't handle them for a long time?
Set an SL AMOUNT in MONEY, for example, $100 USD.
Let it run for bigger distances than USUAL.
2. That is it! Simply said...

Just use the entries to carry you on further.

A daily example?

d1 HL is ~100 pips on avg.
Opening wick is ~25 pips on avg.
Closing wick is ~25 pips on avg.
Pretty much standard.
Visible buy trend on d1.
Risk $100 as an SL for 33 buy entries at 0.01 each.
Set TP 60 pips from the buy avg price of whatever number of 0.01 buy trades you did manage to open..
I would open only buys below the d1 opening price...

Filtering ticks (what is being served to me without me having any hand into it) has worked very well for me.

Instead of using two variables and working totally in the dark, I choose TIME to trade as my known and constant companion or an anchor for my trading decisions.

The only variable to consider is the direction of the market and its strength and sustaining time.

I do it purely on a discretionary basis without using any kind of technical indicators or oscillators.
Basically trading on a hunch developed over a period by sticking to a live trading regimen.

(a) Trending - will trade
(b) consolidating - will trade
(c) Flat - will not trade. Flat market defined by Lookback of previous periods and pips movement

Will the price go up or down?

(a) If Up will it keep going up or down - strong trending?
If yes, how long it will keep going like this? In such a case only Buy or Sell

(b) It will go up but keep reverting in steps - range trading
If yes, I will buy as well as sell.

If do both buy and sell on the hedging broker platform, how to go about it?

How should I measure short pullbacks? Using grid markers?
or just take an arbitrary view that buys will go up for 50% of the time and then slump back to minus - 10% soon

So my TP for buy will be such that it should be hit before the buys sink.

My TP for Sell is such that it should hit TP when buys sink.

So I can think of entering both buys and sell in 50% (or 75% or 25%) proportion with targetted time for the buys to sink happens (no surety of course).

If I think that by the close of a particular time, the buys don't sink, the time will forcibly close all my Drawdown trades with a loss.
EA provides the Exit route to stop trading by the end of any defined TF.

In any case, I am not using Stop Loss. For Risk control Equity Profit or Equity Loss is good enough for me.
I have the choice of using trailing stop loss, but I don't have experience of using it or breakeven. I find it difficult to handle so many risk control measures.

I am aiming at Profit Factor Performance Trading where 70% of gains can co-exist with 30% of losses provided both are from same size lots.

My EA with mql is available for anyone to use it. I am neither a Guru nor a seller of any kind. You don't have to post even a Like.
Feedback by way of comments will be most welcome.

Myths vs Reality

A widespread myth among the newbies: just find a “magical” algo strategy and then sit down and wait for profits. You could beat the market easily and without any effort.


Myth#1 – It is "set and forget" kind of work

Once you install the strategy code into the trading platform you could go to the beach waiting for your profits to accumulate.

Reality: Auto systems save you time for everyday trading routines, but they need supervision.

First, you should monitor all trades for errors in the code. Some of the trades would not be executed properly. You need to solve the problem with the code. It is not an issue you would encounter every day, but all trades have to be monitored.

Myth#2 – Automated Trading is not Emotional

Since trading is done by algorithms without any human intervention regarding the entering and exiting positions you cannot be emotional like discretionary traders are.

Reality: That is not true. Your auto strategy can put you in trade positions and as long as money is at stake, you can get pretty emotional about it.
You could start thinking of closing the trade manually because you just now read that later in the day big news is coming and its outcome may affect your positions. So you start checking the charts frequently and you will be thinking all the time about it. One can easily burn out with thoughts and feel pretty emotional right at that moment.

This was an example of market news disturbing you. Likewise, there are many occasions that can lead a trader into a pretty emotional state.

Why have you set up an EA for those who want to have money without learning how to make money?

This question is being hurled at me. So I want to make it clear that it is not to make fun of anyone but to drive home the point that some amount of use of your own brain will be required.

It is also to let the beginners know that don't be influenced by FF members making tall claims of having some holy grail and those trying to sell their products.

The structure of the financial trading market is modelled on Auction Markets. Like any auction market, the financial markets are prone to be influenced by cartels. It is impossible for anyone except the market insider to know what is going to happen next. Gurus making tall claims of having found ways to track the movements of cartels have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

3- Week Challenge

I am thinking of setting up a 3-week challenge where my goal would be to have a profit factor of at least 1.5 by trading indices. Not forex. The main stock indexes to be traded will be those from Australia, Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, India, Germany, UK, and USA.

Any trader can also try to execute their own ideas and share their experience here.

Experienced Intermediate traders will find the EA has a facility for trading multi symbols.

It is quite flexible because there is no entry signal generator. Most of it is semi-automated and a trader can use attach any indicator of his choice to the chart and then use the EA to execute transactions.

The only fully automated trading facility is tied to the open time of entry and stop time of entry. With or without any directional bias.

Trading multiple symbols or a basket of symbols

As I am one symbol trader I have no experience of trading multiple symbols. But I do realize the way the CFD brokers are expanding their coverage of assets from a few hundreds of assets to 4,000, it provides a lot of opportunities to a creative trader to manage risks by assets diversification.

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If I were to trade those multi symbols, I would look for the symbols that have similar sizes of TP and SL. The portfolio could consist of two symbols having 95% positive correlation, two having 95% negative correlation, and Two should have 50% correlation.

Random EA has the facility (point_multiplier) to manage points or pips digits, which means you can trade in one basket Index, stock, commodity, forex pair, or any asset that is offered by a CFD broker. You may tweak the input to arrive at common digits figure which can apply to all the assets without causing confusion.

Those who can do back-testing are welcome to share the findings. I have the patience to do forward testing for 3 to 6 months, so normally my preference is for it.

The EA is not using any indicator or signal generator for semi-automated trading. It is quite flexible enough to accommodate any kind of strategy you can think of.
The risk controls are fewer making the EA uncomplicated to use.

Totally automated trading is choosing your time of trading for entry and exit with three options (a) TP (b) SL (c) Stop time.

You can attach any indicator of your choice and use the EA to enter the trades as per your strategy.

World Stock Market Hours - index trading
Overlapping trading hours generate a higher volume of traders

CFDs trade for 24 hours but I like to trade mostly during the cash stock market hours.
Following are CFD hours in GMT and local hours as well.

Trading is available from Sunday approximately 5pm to Friday 5pm (New York time).

If you decide to leave trades open over the weekend:

• You cannot close existing positions or open new positions when markets are closed (but you can place or modify Limit, Stop Loss, Take Profit and Trailing Stop orders).
• Ask-bid difference typically widens at 4:00 p.m. Friday, to reflect decreased liquidity in the global markets. These widened ask-bid differences could trigger stop-loss orders or margin closeouts.
• Market prices may significantly change or “gap” when trading resumes on Sunday. This change could trigger limit orders, which are executed at the current market rate. For example, if the market rate moves against you, a stop-loss order may be closed at a rate different from your stop-loss rate – resulting in additional losses.

Ensure that you maintain sufficient margin in your account at all times to avoid a margin closeout. To reduce the risk of a margin closeout, reduce or close your overall positions or add more funds to your Trade account.

To prevent unwanted order execution, consider widening your take-profits, stop-losses, or trailing stops prior to the weekend.

Sydney market is the first Asian market where CFD trading starts just one hour before the local exchange.
I have never traded Sydney ASX previously.
But I want to trade when the local exchange opens and NOT when CFD trading starts.
https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/mark...-trading-hours
Cash market normal trading will start at 10 am Australian time (12 am GMT).
My broker server time will be
Trading on the stock exchange will start at 5 hours from Now.
So my broker's server time is 2 am. So I will input today's date ad Start time 1.59 am in the Random EA.
I would select M1 Time frame (so that the trade opens immediately when 2 am starts) to open trade and select close after candle TF M30 to close the trade.
Entry-exit settings:
First_way: ANY
Always_way: ANY

Since I am not familiar with this symbol, I have no view/bias for direction or how quickly the index will end with loss or gain. Basically I am taking 50:50 chance.

For other settings
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13508389

Pre-Trade work

For trading any market, I would first find out the average Pip average in a TF.
I would like to trade in M15.
So I will use an indicator coded by Blue Rain to find the average pip for M5 or M15 TF.
You can locate the indicator on FF. It is coded by a brilliant coder Blue Rain.
Now I will decide whether I will use this as TP or a multiplier of this as TP.
For now, will use 45 pips as TP. This one is printed near the bottom of the right side of the chart.

I am now going to bed . Will post the outcome when the trades happen.

Closed after 1 hour...

Stop Time in the EA is 4.00 in the server.
The direction has changed.
So not closing this one trade even though 3 buy positions have been closed with profit.
Waiting for the Stop time to liquidate it.

EA log shows trades entries

Oh thanks for quoting. I was expressing my feelings towards Peter’s “need to know everything” point.

you do need to know what is needed to be learnt for whatever want to do and/or succeed. Like driving, you need to know how to start the engine, safely moving it around, abide to the laws. But it is not necessary to know how gearbox is constructed and work. The car racers do, tho. Yet both a normal person and a racer can still drive safely without (or with) crashing in their whole life.

Peter was a bit over in telling others how one is entitled to succeed in trading only when knowing all. If this is applied in other aspects, one can never cook tasty food without knowing the exact chemical coating used in his fry pan, or many should have drown in water because they don’t know the fluidic dynamic of the water body they are swimming in.

succeed with being lazy in mind is the other end of the spectrum.