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Trading EURUSD only 43,756 replies

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  • #130,661
  • Apr 22, 2021 1:47pm Apr 22, 2021 1:47pm
Quoting fxsport
It all seems calm now - just before the "storm hits". My personal bias is long EU but only slightly - why? 1. 10 year bond prices still below that critical 1.7% level 2. US stockmarket dips every morning but continues to "fight back" or "climb the wall of worry" - usually bullish and that means risk on so USD down 3. From ECB meeting I gathered that the EU wants to run THEIR printing presses 24/7 but can't compete with FED printers so stimulus on both sides = risk on = USD down. Yeah not a technical indicator in the above mentioned just personal...
Just to point 4 - what Lagarde meant was that the ECB will not follow suit in hiking rates when the FED lifts off. It is an attempt to make the ECB sound more dovish than the FED but that can hardly be new/unexpected information. I don‘t think that this changed anything.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,662
  • Apr 22, 2021 1:53pm Apr 22, 2021 1:53pm
If the daily candle stayed like this it would look nasty for the bulls, might make 1.1950 likely for tomorrow. A return above 1.1220 would look way better.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,663
  • Apr 22, 2021 1:57pm Apr 22, 2021 1:57pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Quite possibly, and right now maybe we have started prices infamous 10 pips ranging marathon !! how many hours would it last this time ? Please make it so you are right fxsport !
Thanks to Biden the wall street selling starts, better get those profits in NOW before paying an additional 20% tax! Stupid M*******er.

Between all the checks going out and new "programs" Biden will drive the USA into a ditch faster than Covid spreads in a massage palor.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #130,664
  • Apr 22, 2021 1:59pm Apr 22, 2021 1:59pm
Quoting Nordling00
Good trades are always the boring trades. Holding my long position since 1.175 and i will hold it until inflation & growth datas are against me. They are still in favor of Euro and today looks like a pullback.
Nice Nordling! Yes I find also. That is where I started too this month. In the 17s.

Was an intraday countertrend that was not meant to last. But price pursued its course steadily and my trailing stop never caught up.
I had to adjust when my next setup was a trend following trade. Been buying at every bottom of range since and it has not failed yet.

Will stop once it fails. This could be the time.

Had not expected to get such a reversal and had many shorts to get rid of gradually, like I am reliving again now perhaps.

Cheers Nordling and thanks for sharing, take care all and good night to all of you still lurking around !

Its snooze time for me !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,665
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:01pm Apr 22, 2021 2:01pm
Quoting Nordling00
Good trades are always the boring trades. Holding my long position since 1.175 and i will hold it until inflation & growth datas are against me. They are still in favor of Euro and today looks like a pullback.
I'm with you but I don't have your patience Nordling.

Jumped in at 1.2010....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_USD_20210422_14.58.png Size: 55 KB
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #130,666
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:01pm Apr 22, 2021 2:01pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Thanks to Biden the wall street selling starts, better get those profits in NOW before paying an additional 20% tax! Stupid M*******er. Between all the checks going out and new "programs" Biden will drive the USA into a ditch faster than Covid spreads in a massage palor.
Only for millionaires my friend in the US most stocks are held by non-millionaires in their pension funds I guess.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,667
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:14pm Apr 22, 2021 2:14pm
Quoting nic9man
If the daily candle stayed like this it would look nasty for the bulls, might make 1.1950 likely for tomorrow. A return above 1.1220 would look way better.
Nic ! I didnt think anyone was around...

That candle does look very nasty for the bulls. And it forced me to close more longs today.

I wonder if tomorrow we will maybe see it shake up this uptrends 16 day steady rise.

I have been strategically a gradually closing my longs for a little over 3 days now, but most would be closed only around 1940(level rising every day). If it gets to that level, the reason I have been keeping longs open instead of taking profit as usual will be completely gone.

I would then start actively taking just as many longs as shorts, intraday only, till we get out of the longterm ranging we would get stuck in in between till the bears and bulls get it together again !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,668
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:16pm Apr 22, 2021 2:16pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Only for millionaires my friend in the US most stocks are held by non-millionaires in their pension funds I guess.
Just think, every time my 401K IRA plan sells or re-allocates the fund's assets it will cost an additional 20%, who do you think pays for that? The owners of the funds as it cuts into the profits.

Capital gains hit everyone who buys and sells stocks.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #130,669
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:36pm Apr 22, 2021 2:36pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Nic ! I didnt think anyone was around... That candle does look very nasty for the bulls. And it forced me to close more longs today. I wonder if tomorrow we will maybe see it shake up this uptrends 16 day steady rise. I have been strategically a gradually closing my longs for a little over 3 days now, but most would be closed only around 1940(level rising every day). If it gets to that level, the reason I have been keeping longs open instead of taking profit as usual will be completely gone. I would then start actively taking just as many...
Ok, thanks for the levels! Maybe we make it back to 1.2020 today. So far 1.1994 has held nicely, was just touched. Also 1.1980s should provide massive support. Hence if we should really make it to the low 1.19s I would also puke out most my longs and wait what‘s happening.
Actually if the 4h closes above 1.2017 it would look ok.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,670
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:37pm Apr 22, 2021 2:37pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Nice Nordling! Yes I find also. That is where I started too this month. In the 17s. Was an intraday countertrend that was not meant to last. But price pursued its course steadily and my trailing stop never caught up. I had to adjust when my next setup was a trend following trade. Been buying at every bottom of range since and it has not failed yet. Will stop once it fails. This could be the time. Had not expected to get such a reversal and had many shorts to get rid of gradually, like I am reliving again now perhaps. Cheers Nordling and...
I am happy to see that you are winning mate! You did a very good job increasing your positions when it started to work in your way. Be careful though, never increase your positions until you see the market is moving in your way. That's how i time my entries. I make fundamental analysis first to have an idea but i don't open a position just after the news releases. I wait for the market to work in my way first. Yes, i am always 50- 100 pips late but it's worth it.

"Always be 1 or 2 steps ahead of the market but not 3 or 4"
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #130,671
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:45pm Apr 22, 2021 2:45pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} I'm with you but I don't have your patience Nordling. Jumped in at 1.2010....{image}
It's alright, my position was like yours few weeks ago. We all lose when we open a position That's inevitable due to even bid-ask price difference . I am sure you will profit from it if US growth rate comes higher than expected and if Euro Core Inflation & Growth rates comes lower than expected. I am trusting on that scenario too. Keep an eye out for those news.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #130,672
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:54pm Apr 22, 2021 2:54pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Ok, thanks for the levels! Maybe we make it back to 1.2020 today. So far 1.1994 has held nicely, was just touched. Also 1.1980s should provide massive support. Hence if we should really make it to the low 1.19s I would also puke out most my longs and wait what‘s happening.

A pleasure ! At end of day tomorrow that level will be quite different as it will also have to consider the lows of the 4 days struggling to beat down that one resistance reached the day prior to them. Ill update it here.

I was a bit lucky, thanks to you guys I was still in front of the screen and got a volatility scalp at 2000 and 2003 that I just moved at BE. Where do I send my thank you gifts ?! hahah

For now I am still at -8 from todays longs...

But look at that ! Looks like alarms of 2014 wont have to wake me up after all !

... got 3 positions back in all. Up to 5 now. Good start. Wonder if Ill have to start all over soon. Wont mind!

SL of my under 2012 positions will be moved at BE the second 2023 is reached.

Closed my 2015 trade at BE. Its just too high now for me to have 2 positions over 2014...
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,673
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:58pm Apr 22, 2021 2:58pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} It's alright, my position was like yours few weeks ago. We all lose when we open a position That's inevitable due to even bid-ask price difference . I am sure you will profit from it if US growth rate comes higher than expected and if Euro Core Inflation & Growth rates comes lower than expected. I am trusting on that scenario too. Keep an eye out for those news.
Although I am also long for fundamental reasons I just wanted to point out that your reasoning can easily be backtested and it does not work like this. First, most of the time in EURUSD the country with better macro surprises wins. And second, if you trade on inflation differentials you are basically trading on a reversion to the the purchasing power parity which is a very long term view, i.e. it might take 5 years until your view materializes. That said, now might be the time where this materializes, but the US inflation has been higher than euroland inflation for years with the USD appreciating.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,674
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:59pm Apr 22, 2021 2:59pm
Quoting corongumet
{quote} I like your MM now i learn it on demo. I hope it can be clear 1-3 months before using real account. Its really free Stress.
pls what do you mean as mm eve we can learn too from the boss
  • #130,675
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:07pm Apr 22, 2021 3:07pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Alghtough I am also long for fundamental reasons I just wanted to point out that your reasoning can easily be backtested and it does not work like this. First, most of the time in EURUSD the country with better macro surprises wins. And second, if you trade on inflation differentials you are basically trading on a reversion to the the purchasing power parity which is a very long term view, i.e. it might take 5 years until your view materializes. That said, now might be the time where this materializes, but the US inflation has been higher...
I am working with this system for nearly a year mate and never generated a misleading analysis. Of course there were times where i lost some little trades but i can say that it works unless there's some big, unexpected news like AstraZeneca from UK in early April. Which can never be foreseen by anyone.

I don't trade based on only core inflation of course, i also look at gdp growth rates & interest rates to calculate an overall result, then comparing it with other currencies.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #130,676
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:08pm Apr 22, 2021 3:08pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Ok, thanks for the levels! Maybe we make it back to 1.2020 today. So far 1.1994 has held nicely, was just touched. Also 1.1980s should provide massive support. Hence if we should really make it to the low 1.19s I would also puke out most my longs and wait what‘s happening. Actually if the 4h closes above 1.2017 it would look ok.
Thanks for the imagery ! You got it worst than I thought. For me, for now, as long as 4h closes above 1.1960, I am fine.

Hope it doesnt get there for ya ! I guess you will close at interval like me if it keeps dropping ? Wish you all the best Nic9man !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,677
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:13pm Apr 22, 2021 3:13pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Although I am also long for fundamental reasons I just wanted to point out that your reasoning can easily be backtested and it does not work like this. First, most of the time in EURUSD the country with better macro surprises wins. And second, if you trade on inflation differentials you are basically trading on a reversion to the the purchasing power parity which is a very long term view, i.e. it might take 5 years until your view materializes. That said, now might be the time where this materializes, but the US inflation has been higher...

Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I am working with this system for nearly a year mate and never generated a misleading analysis. Of course there were times where i lost some little trades but i can say that it works unless there's some big, unexpected news like AstraZeneca from UK in early April. Which can never be foreseen by anyone. I don't trade based on only core inflation of course, i also look at gdp growth rates & interest rates to calculate an overall result, then comparing it with other currencies.

Really enjoying your conversation guys ! I d join in but I can just read and try to learn. I have never gotten into fundamentals, although I know of its potential as I followed a pro fundamental trader for a couple of years back in 2010, and it brought great consistent results.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,678
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:16pm Apr 22, 2021 3:16pm
Quoting kingsleynwan
{quote} pls what do you mean as mm eve we can learn too from the boos
Mm means money management. Now i learn to combine his money management to my elliot wave analyst, how it can work and i back to demo account. In here i just giving my view. His mm perfect to me. Because im swing trader (for eurusd) and using H4 - weekly. For other pair like GBPUSD i use daily range system. So i have two strategy so? I back to demo because i want focus my elliot wave counting and how about elliot wave money managements. For example how long my stop lost? When i take multiple entries? And when i lock my order to BE and Cut or headging it? And what should i do if touch my SL? So its complex
  • #130,679
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:23pm Apr 22, 2021 3:23pm
Please bare with me and forgive my ignorance:

Why, over the +15years I have been trading daily, when I am already in a trend following trade and the biggest moving news are announced, why does it still go in my direction a good 70+% of the time, which was already pretty much the probability of it pursuing its course anyways?? Like price already had the unexpected results considered.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,680
  • Edited 4:04pm Apr 22, 2021 3:52pm | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting mtako
Please bare with me and forgive my ignorance: Why, over the +15years I have been trading daily, when I am already in a trend following trade and the biggest moving news are announced, why does it still go in my direction a good 70+% of the time, which was already pretty much the probability of it pursuing its course anyways?? Like price already had the unexpected results considered.
that i wanna know too.

and it is the reason i rarelly if ever check for news. actually when price is taking to long i will check for news around the corner to push it. it works as you said 70% of the time

the interest cut every 3 months and nfp are my favourites, the more important they are the better
offering my system to copy trade. check my link
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