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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #57,861
  • Apr 21, 2021 12:59pm Apr 21, 2021 12:59pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} I have decided what to do before i place my trade. Place trade and if it wins good. If trade fails,i move onto the next part . Just lately Cable has been underperforming and have you noticed how i am trading dax,Nifty 50 and some e/u. I look for better odds. i am a trader.
Thanks for your answer. I also prefer to have it planned before. Nifty is not provided by my broker. I have Dax and sometimes look at it, but thats all. No strategy for these. I would be happy with having one thing figured out and doing better, especially with fixing the failed trade / next part.

Claudia already told me not to be all over the place So thats why i like to keep focusing on one market for now.

I am not sure what you see as "underperforming". GBP/USD feels moving ugly the last weeks but just looking at it from a statistical point of view the win/loss rate hasn't much changed over the years on your BillyBar setup. Actually two months of last year were even much worst than we had this year so far. So...

The $30/pip i normally trade sometimes already feels uncomfortable and i am not sure how to handle this if i would then have to to open even more trades to scalp me out of the mess (i guess thats what you do roughly with fixing). You might say you wait for a new valid/trigger, idk. Last time you had that fail fixed quickly i haven't noticed any trigger. But well done. You are certainly good at fixing/scalping here.

I mean i would have to trade at least 5 times that size as i do now to really help me with making a living from trading. Costs are high here. So more like $150/pip than a $30. That's the plan for ending up with only 50% of the time with the +5 at the end of the day, a 100 Pips at that size would be even better if you think of paying taxes (no tax free spread betting here).

Yes, I could trade a smaller size and look for for the thousands of pips for 20-22 days but i don't think that would make things necessarily easier to me.

Really hard to find real help on all this, maybe my plan and what i am doing is all just rubbish so far. I think i have problems with the money/risk management part and calculations. The discipline is there, a basic method is there... keep it simple they all just say, lol.
  • #57,862
  • Apr 22, 2021 12:48am Apr 22, 2021 12:48am
[quote=lddd;13505693]{quote} Thanks for your answer. I also prefer to have it planned before. Nifty is not provided by my broker. I have Dax and sometimes look at it, but thats all. No strategy for these. I would be happy with having one thing figured out and doing better, especially with fixing the failed trade / next part. Claudia already told me not to be all over the place So thats why i like to keep focusing on one market for now. I am not sure what you see as "underperforming". GBP/USD feels moving ugly the last weeks but just looking at it from a statistical point of view the win/loss rate hasn't much changed over the years on your BillyBar setup. Actually two months of last year were even much worst than we had this year so far. So... The $30/pip i normally trade sometimes already feels uncomfortable and i am not sure how to handle this if i would then have to

In my eyes cable is under performing due to the fact that i am not as confident with it as i have been in the past.
My main trade is Ģ140 per point and i get 5%.
I dont trade ideas or if i think i know where price is, i trade stats and the method.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #57,863
  • Apr 22, 2021 12:51am Apr 22, 2021 12:51am
Morning all,
My new pride and joy the Nifty Fifty broke the 00-00 4 hour range for a bag full.
Unlike yesterday when it broke then made a bit of a retrace before the big move.
Happy days.
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #57,864
  • Apr 22, 2021 1:35am Apr 22, 2021 1:35am
i agree, its tough these days trading only cable...
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #57,865
  • Edited 2:58am Apr 22, 2021 2:19am | Edited 2:58am
Morning.

BillyBar. Doing it a bit different today. Range is only 6,6. Adjusted to 15. Orders placed. Waiting...

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edit, 08:50. I got almost triggered short. The actual low trigger of the BillyBar broke but was only good for +4 so far. The high not touched yet.

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edit, 08:59. I am short.
  • #57,866
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:33am Apr 22, 2021 2:33am
Quoting billytt
My main trade is Ģ140 per point and i get 5%. I dont trade ideas or if i think i know where price is, i trade stats and the method.
Yes like said, the stats haven`t changed at all. I looked at it last 5 years (every single day).

You donīt know before you take the trade if it starts to move ugly this day or not. If you trade the pure stats you enter every single trade high/low and thats it right (at least in my understanding). And thats what i am doing, can only speak for my self.

Trade safe all.
  • #57,867
  • Apr 22, 2021 2:57am Apr 22, 2021 2:57am
Quoting birdland
i agree, its tough these days trading only cable...
We are moving in a range of 27 Pips since yesterday late afternoon (16:30 GMT).
  • #57,868
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:06am Apr 22, 2021 3:06am
Cable 08-00 break. low broke for enough. i did not trade it.

The range was 6 as quoted,
If i had traded it and this is standard for me, i would enter the 1st break and if it then retraced i would then manually adjust the 6 bar to a 15 bar.

Looking at stats over years and years can give false information.
a 4 hour bar chart could show a break and gain, but it doesn't show a break ,retrace, gain .
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #57,869
  • Apr 22, 2021 3:08am Apr 22, 2021 3:08am
09:02 | My short was filled and i am already out again. Way to early, exited for +8,1 Pips after moving up the stop to +5 once it went through that but then didnīt had the confidence to stay in. A 3 Pips more already $90 more.

It went +20 a moment later...

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I am done for today.

Current week: -13 (still holding the counter lol). +5, +5, +8,1 = 5,1 Pips. Due to com/swap on the counter more like a 3 Pips net so far. Well at least profitable. One day to go. Maybe ending up with +8 for the end of the week.
  • #57,870
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:05am Apr 22, 2021 4:05am
Quoting lddd
09:02 | My short was filled and i am already out again. Way to early, exited for +8,1 Pips after moving up the stop to +5 once it went through that but then didnīt had the confidence to stay in. A 3 Pips more already $90 more. It went +20 a moment later... {image} I am done for today. Current week: -13 (still holding the counter lol). +5, +5, +8,1 = 5,1 Pips. Due to com/swap on the counter more like a 3 Pips net so far. Well at least profitable. One day to go. Maybe ending up with +8 for the end of the week.
" +5, +5, +8,1 = 5,1 Pips."

So if you had increased your trade size by 0.25% on the two +5, +5 and then dropped back to your normal size on the +8.1 would you now be in profit?

Counter = 13 at 1x = -13x
1st trade = 5 at 1.25x = +6.25x
2nd trade =5 at 1.25x = +6.25x
3rd trade = 8.1 at 1x = +8.1x

So -13 + 6.25 + 6.25 + 8.1 = +7.6 less costs?
  • #57,871
  • Apr 22, 2021 4:34am Apr 22, 2021 4:34am
Quoting lddd
09:02 | My short was filled and i am already out again. Way to early, exited for +8,1 Pips after moving up the stop to +5 once it went through that but then didnīt had the confidence to stay in. A 3 Pips more already $90 more. It went +20 a moment later... {image} I am done for today. Current week: -13 (still holding the counter lol). +5, +5, +8,1 = 5,1 Pips. Due to com/swap on the counter more like a 3 Pips net so far. Well at least profitable. One day to go. Maybe ending up with +8 for the end of the week.
You mentioned something along the lines of keeping risk in check.

Instead of increasing lot size after a loss, another way to look at it is to use your profits to build a bit of a cushion. Never risk more than your initial risk, just use your profit to increase your lot size. Having said that, I don't like doing this with inverse R:R (your risk larger that your reward). Perhaps you can find value here
  • #57,872
  • Apr 22, 2021 5:07am Apr 22, 2021 5:07am
Quick scalp from blue Zline back to orange Zline. Blue zone is a 4H mighty zone, without this zone I would have not taken the trade.

Trade went against me initially, but it didn't close lower, so I stayed in.

Got out at +4.7. Had a higher target in mind but I'm trading against the trend/momentum and have to go out. Closed the trade when it started to stall at a Zline. Wouldn't be surprised if it does go towards my target.

Have a good day all : )
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  • #57,873
  • Apr 22, 2021 5:33am Apr 22, 2021 5:33am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} You mentioned something along the lines of keeping risk in check. Instead of increasing lot size after a loss, another way to look at it is to use your profits to build a bit of a cushion. Never risk more than your initial risk, just use your profit to increase your lot size. Having said that, I don't like doing this with inverse R:R (your risk larger that your reward). Perhaps you can find value here

That's it bud.
Increase your winnings and that is compounding.
One of the best things to do in trading.
i do both, ie, increase size and compound.
When i post about Cable blah blah ,my main concern is that the big moves are not moving as freely so compounding is harder to do.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #57,874
  • Apr 22, 2021 5:43am Apr 22, 2021 5:43am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} You mentioned something along the lines of keeping risk in check. Instead of increasing lot size after a loss, another way to look at it is to use your profits to build a bit of a cushion. Never risk more than your initial risk, just use your profit to increase your lot size. Having said that, I don't like doing this with inverse R:R (your risk larger that your reward). Perhaps you can find value here
Definitely good advice. I think Risk/Reward is out the window anyways with this kind of method. You have a range of lets say 30 Pips. You get a fail. You targeted +5. Your Risk was 6 times higher than your reward. This only works out having a high strike rate and not taking the stop as a fixed, countering and getting the counter to break even at least. OR take the stop loss fixed than making up the 30 Pips you lost somehow/somewhere else. It`s that "easy" isnīt it?

I do not like to increase lot size. I am not sure how billy is doing it at 140 a pip. I have a big bank roll already and it already feels i am pushing leverage to the limits doing this with only 3 lots. If i would have to increase lot size for making up for a +5 locked/failed at -30 (thats a -$900) with another +5 win entered at the opposite end of the break instantly. I need to open this new trade at 18 lots already. Meaning to balance out a -30 with a +5 the +5 then has to be at $180/Pip instead of $30.

In Billys case if he he does so with 140/pip the initial order. Meaning a +5 is = $700 (or pounds, doesnt matter). A stop loss or countered position failed at -30 will be $4200. To make back the $4200 with +5 Pips with the next/additional order he would have to increase lot size to nearly 90 lots, meaning $900/Pip. IF the market/broker will get you filled at 90 lots is another story.

What if that next trade fails too, price retracing again to the opposite end of the range for a third time? Counter it again or take a 30 x $900 ($27k)= loss then fixed?

I do not talk about compounding as this is not part of my business yet. If Billy says +5 can make you a life here even without compounding, thats the challenge i take. He says to make +5 or +5% or +$700 what ever then stop. Talking aboiut compounding then is a bit cotradicting it self.
  • #57,875
  • Apr 22, 2021 6:07am Apr 22, 2021 6:07am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} " +5, +5, +8,1 = 5,1 Pips." So if you had increased your trade size by 0.25% on the two +5, +5 and then dropped back to your normal size on the +8.1 would you now be in profit? Counter = 13 at 1x = -13x 1st trade = 5 at 1.25x = +6.25x 2nd trade =5 at 1.25x = +6.25x 3rd trade = 8.1 at 1x = +8.1x So -13 + 6.25 + 6.25 + 8.1 = +7.6 less costs?
Thanks Fagin, yes. See my earlier post, i am not sure yet with increasing trade size. Obviously you canīt forceast what the next trade will bring. So every time i increase size it also can work the other way around. Nothing to worry, but just to take in mind. Also a larger sudden spike in price could hapen at any time you entered.

Thats the main reason why so far i do not like to increase on the entries. I counter or take the stop then trying to make at least a +5 at the regular trade size with the next day's setup + maybe trying to get rid of the counter for break even or at least less the loss which is a challenge on its own.
  • #57,876
  • Apr 22, 2021 6:32am Apr 22, 2021 6:32am
Compounding, you can start off with a very small bankroll and progressively increase that amount by compounding.

You can live on 5 points per day. (actually less).
Compounding can be used to help fix a fail, i have said this many times.
Remember when i say, as long as i have 25% after 5 trade days.
It doesnt matter if i were up 30% - 40% etc.

i trade as if i were working on a salary.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #57,877
  • Edited 7:58am Apr 22, 2021 7:27am | Edited 7:58am
Quoting billytt
Compounding, you can start off with a very small bankroll and progressively increase that amount by compounding. You can live on 5 points per day. (actually less). Compounding can be used to help fix a fail, i have said this many times. Remember when i say, as long as i have 25% after 5 trade days. It doesnt matter if i were up 30% - 40% etc. i trade as if i were working on a salary.
I think the trick for me is working out a max number of counters and the margin requirements to fix em. It results in a smaller TP for the 1st 5 pips, but compounding soon makes up for this.. I make on the fixes and the main trade but you do need to have a plan otherwise its gameover.

I'm still developing my scalping style but as ever it's the money management that is the key to the palace..

Edit: I haven't figured out how to get to 5% yet though!
  • #57,878
  • Apr 22, 2021 7:33am Apr 22, 2021 7:33am
what i am experimenting now is the combination of 00-00 4h break plus the retrace (lets call it ABC) and shorting when the 8EMA is breached (and long vice versa)

i know, old stuff, but still interesting.
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #57,879
  • Apr 22, 2021 9:04am Apr 22, 2021 9:04am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} You mentioned something along the lines of keeping risk in check. Instead of increasing lot size after a loss, another way to look at it is to use your profits to build a bit of a cushion. Never risk more than your initial risk, just use your profit to increase your lot size. Having said that, I don't like doing this with inverse R:R (your risk larger that your reward). Perhaps you can find value here
It didn't reach the profit target I had in mind. It did form a nice Zline in the opposite direction (with the trend)
  • #57,880
  • Apr 22, 2021 9:11am Apr 22, 2021 9:11am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Definitely good advice. I think Risk/Reward is out the window anyways with this kind of method. You have a range of lets say 30 Pips. You get a fail. You targeted +5. Your Risk was 6 times higher than your reward. This only works out having a high strike rate and not taking the stop as a fixed, countering and getting the counter to break even at least. OR take the stop loss fixed than making up the 30 Pips you lost somehow/somewhere else. It`s that "easy" isnīt it? I do not like to increase lot size. I am not sure how billy is doing it at...
I don't use RR in itself, but to throw it out the window entirely would be silly. At the end of the day it is basic maths to figure out how much or how often you will need to win with a 5 point target and an average stop loss of say 15 points.

If you loose twice in a row, with say a total loss of -30, how are you going to fix this by trading +5s? It's not a trick question, but a legitimate one.

Not sure if I understand the rest of your post correctly, but believe you are saying you are trading a (relatively) big lot size and when things go wrong you would need to trade an even bigger lot size? If so, this is exactly the point I'm trying to make: By using your profits to make your next trade bigger, you still use the same initial risk, where as if you double up after a loss you are increasing your risk.
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