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FX investing: mid/long term ideas

  • #181
  • Oct 4, 2020 10:40am Oct 4, 2020 10:40am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} Right, but normally dealers accumulate on downtrend, isn it?
Exactly, because dumb money is selling more and more and it goes down, while smart money (dealers) is the other side and buy more
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #182
  • Oct 5, 2020 5:28am Oct 5, 2020 5:28am
EURO to follow US T-notes traders?

Have a look here at the long side of the money managers from the 10 yrs US treasury note

Attached Image

I'll have to check history to make sure it works more than over a period of 4 years
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #183
  • Oct 5, 2020 9:27am Oct 5, 2020 9:27am
It's weird, according to last week's COT report; Nearly all currencies are showing slight/medium volumn shift to beaish bias, or some readings are showing coming off extreme level (Eg, dealer's long & asset manager's long position), But the USD continue to weaken today. Kuroro, in this kind of situation, what logic can explain?
  • #184
  • Oct 5, 2020 1:16pm Oct 5, 2020 1:16pm
Quoting lamurus
It's weird, according to last week's COT report; Nearly all currencies are showing slight/medium volumn shift to beaish bias, or some readings are showing coming off extreme level (Eg, dealer's long & asset manager's long position), But the USD continue to weaken today. Kuroro, in this kind of situation, what logic can explain?
If you are looking on a daily basis, there is nothing to worry about

You should invest as market participants do, eg looking at weekly/monthly.
So they keep adding at it goes one way or another until they are fully loaded, then the reverse shall come

I have to admit dollar dealers are loaded on the long. Are they loaded enough? maybe, maybe not. You can't tell until it reverses.

So far my strategy is to look to buy dips on the dollar, but i'm not buying 10 pips dips, i prefer 100 pips dips to add

If you use a good MM, you'll nail it

Intraday trading taking 50 pips a day is a different game than looking at the long term and eyeing for 1000/1500 pips swing moves
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #185
  • Oct 8, 2020 4:29am Oct 8, 2020 4:29am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Exactly, because dumb money is selling more and more and it goes down, while smart money (dealers) is the other side and buy more
Hey Kuroro, i ve been analyzing usd index and i came to some conclusion which i would like to discuss with you.

Sentiment on gbp is changing slowly going into bearish but not strong move yet. I guess that this should be supported by the dollar strenght which there isnt at the moment.

Below there is the chart of tot long and short of market participant.

07/2016 - 11/2017 - 07/2020 we landed in negative territory and we saw dollar strenght with a push up in positive territory. Analyzing the current moment i see we still are in negative, thats why we dont see any strong move yet. What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdidx flip1.jpg Size: 1.7 MB
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #186
  • Oct 12, 2020 6:09am Oct 12, 2020 6:09am
Hi

I have made research about Dollar index. Both of side (Dealers and hedge funds) are loaded in fully still. Dealers are loaded max since August till now. Still I am waiting for reverse and increase strength dollar.

Sincerely
Kefasa


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #187
  • Oct 15, 2020 5:02am Oct 15, 2020 5:02am
Hello all, put together a little COT strength indicator for a few currencies based on dealers. Plan on adding AUD and CAD in the future. For maximum effectiveness combine a sell and buy into a pair and trade in that direction.

Mid/long term buys and sells:

Sells:
1. Euro
2. CHF
3. JPY

Range:
1. GBP

Buys:
1. USD

Enjoy!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT Strength indicator.png Size: 82 KB
  • #188
  • Oct 15, 2020 3:12pm Oct 15, 2020 3:12pm
Quoting Scotteyy
Hello all, put together a little COT strength indicator for a few currencies based on dealers. Plan on adding AUD and CAD in the future. For maximum effectiveness combine a sell and buy into a pair and trade in that direction. Mid/long term buys and sells: Sells: 1. Euro 2. CHF 3. JPY Range: 1. GBP Buys: 1. USD Enjoy! {image}
Hi Scotteyy,

Thank you for sharing your charts. Great method to present a some participants in complex method. Recently I have met a new program for reporting. Power BI is very interactive for presentation, charts (much more than Excel) there are a many huge the possibilities for using COT report.
  • #189
  • Nov 9, 2020 9:33am Nov 9, 2020 9:33am
USD short assets managers : All in

Watch out here and now

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #190
  • Nov 11, 2020 6:44am Nov 11, 2020 6:44am
The AUD/USD investment idea might work well for some if they keep following the trend. Thanks for sharing.
  • #191
  • Dec 2, 2020 3:43am Dec 2, 2020 3:43am
Currently, I am focusing on the following currencies and currency pairs that these currencies form: EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, USD, AUD, NZD as they are the most profitable currencies that I have used so far.
  • #192
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:40am Dec 2, 2020 5:40am
Quoting kuroro001
USD short assets managers : All in Watch out here and now {image}
it means usd will strengthen?
  • #193
  • Dec 3, 2020 2:50am Dec 3, 2020 2:50am
Quoting kuroro001
USD short assets managers : All in Watch out here and now {image}
Attached Image
  • #194
  • Dec 5, 2020 5:14pm Dec 5, 2020 5:14pm
Quoting General Lee
{quote} {image}
Yes, we have the same view. What do they want to achieve by it?
  • #195
  • Apr 18, 2021 1:56am Apr 18, 2021 1:56am
Dears,

I see that there is no longer any updates, comments in thread. Please find the screen which represent one of group COT Asset Manager. According to calculation they are bullish for a some time therefore Also I bought USD. In other type COT Non-Commercial looks similar. Now I am looking for another signal (more likely additional technical signal) to add in portfolio.

Thank you

Sincerely
Kefo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #196
  • Oct 8, 2021 3:17am Oct 8, 2021 3:17am
Thank you for the information, it was useful to me as a beginner.
  • #197
  • Jan 7, 2022 6:34am Jan 7, 2022 6:34am
GBPJPY idea

Hedge funds increasing short on top, they are often positionned as contrarian like Assets managers (trend followers), even though Hedge funds have lots of different strategies

And it seems the dominant strategy is to be short GBPJPY on rallies

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #198
  • Last Post: Mar 2, 2022 4:29am Mar 2, 2022 4:29am
Quoting Scotteyy
Hello all, put together a little COT strength indicator for a few currencies based on dealers. Plan on adding AUD and CAD in the future. For maximum effectiveness combine a sell and buy into a pair and trade in that direction. Mid/long term buys and sells: Sells: 1. Euro 2. CHF 3. JPY Range: 1. GBP Buys: 1. USD Enjoy! {image}
Recently received a message asking whether this COT strength indicator actually yielded any results. Heres the reply for anyone interested:

Hello mate, only just seen this. Been very busy with university so stopped trading for the most part and not kept up with updating the COT reports. After having looked at my previous predictions from the post, I'm amazed at how well they actually did. Looking back to OCT 2020 and comparing to the predictions:

If you sold EURO against USD you would have experienced a ~300 pip drawdown before being up nearly 700-800 pips.

If you bought USD against JPY you would be up nearly 1000 pips.

USD/CHF seemed to range which goes against my prediction of selling the CHF.

GBP/USD seemed to range which is also what I predicted.

Honestly really happy with those results, shame I didn't trade them. Understandably using COT reports you would have to be looking at longer term patterns. Holding trades for months or even years at some points if you want to catch the big moves. You also may experience more drawdown until the currency finally starts to move in the direction of the whales.

Appreciate the message, reviewing this definitely made me see the value here.

Scott
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