FX investing: mid/long term ideas

FX investing : mid/long term ideas

Another journey, another journal

In this thread i will post mid/long term FX investment ideas regarding market sentiment & a bit of technical (oscillator and an indicator i have made to see the extreme of a move)

The idea is the same as my other journal "COT : The precious data ignored".
This current thread will be ONLY based on currency pairs, while the other one is being used for everything found on the COT report (commodities, fx, index, bonds)

The focus will be on currencies below :
EURO, GBP, CHF, JPY, USD, AUD, NZD
Any mix of the currencies above will be analysed / Overall 28 pairs possible

What else? I'll only use the disaggregated report found on the cftc.gov website. All the datas on my COT charts are made out of the cftc.gov website (only the specific calculations are made my way).
Regarding the "proprietary system" i'll use it to see if prices reach extremes or not, is my own indicator (not for sale or share)

Disaggregated report have 3 main market participants :
- The dealers
- The Assets managers
- The Money managers

I'll take the time later to explain how they work

I'll post 2 different types of analysis :
- Currency pairs investment ideas
- Currency pairs long/short situation

USDCAD investment idea #1

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Dealers increasing their shorts

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Assets managers are very long on top

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Weekly system is telling us its very bought

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Daily system is telling us its very bought as well

USDPY investment idea #2


Dealers are going long, good thing for buyers as it means small traders are going net shorts


Assets managers don't give a clear signal. The lower the better. But if we look at the JPY index only (analysis made on my other journal) then JPY is overcrowded


Weekly system is still in saying its going down, but lower tf such a H4 is saying to long.

Hi,
Will follow this. Big banks seem to have large amount of shorts on NZDUSD, AUDUSD and GBPUSD.
What are your thoughts on this?
Thanks

Hello,

I'll post what i see during the week end

Cheers

GBPCAD investment idea #3


Dealers are ruling the GBPCAD. Big net long and big net shorts are moving prices. But lately? its getting flat


Money managers net position is net long. Whenever they increase too much a net position, it means it can reverse


Weekly system is close to a buy than a sell, but it can go down nicely to show a strong buy


Daily system is still a strong buy

NZDUSD investment idea #4


Dealers have been net longs for quite some time. What does it mean ? Retailers shorts, and whenever they are very shorts, NZDUSD rises.
But overall small money is right, until they are deeply wrong


Assets managers are shorts, they are trend followers. But they increase a lot on bottom. They are still very short. Don't be suprised to see some rallies until Assets managers cool off


Weekly system is oscillating between longs and shorts. Recently system is positive. So watch out for some dip


Daily system is showing lots of extreme downmoves. Everytime we hit an extreme, its time to buy

AUDUSD investment idea #5


Lets face it, dealers have been clueless for years.


Assets managers are still very short, and nailing the downtrend. But whenever they accumulate too many shorts, they take a it


Something interesting to consider. Lets compare the COT report from the copper with the AUDUSD price.
Producers of copper have been very short hedged over the past few years. Whenever they have been increasing a lot, it has pressured AUDUSD. Its a fundamental thing i won't deep into


Regarding the Money managers from the copper, Its pretty revelant on the long run. Whenever they accumulate too much on one side, its time to take the opposite


Weekly system has been nailing the moves so far. Its still in selling the rallies mode


Daily system is less relevant lately, but it suggest to buy the dips.

The idea is to check the weekly system with the copper COT report to have an idea of what to do

EURAUD investment idea #6


As usual AUD dealers are clueless, but very good on extreme


Assets managers on the right path, but going crazy on top of every move, that's when you need to start taking profits or shorting for retrace.
The new highs of price need to coincide with spikes in positions to give us a strong signal


Money managers are like the Assets managers, trend followers. But totally off at tops/bottom where they add too much before giving over the bag


Weekly system gave us good extreme, a must to follow


Daily system is like the dealers, clueless about the trend, but good at spotting extremes

hi kuroro001,
thanks for the thread, i will follow with interest trying to learn

NZDCHF investment idea #7


Dealers are good at spotting reversals. Keep an eye on them


Assets managers, trend followers, are increasing their net long as we go up, increasing their net shorts as we go down, until they are extreme, then its retrace/reversal


Weekly system have been doing good so far. Selling higher and buying dips, all on extreme moves.
Lately its increasing, but dealers and assets managers don't agree

Once the 3 agrees, its time to have a go

CADJPY investment idea #8


Net positions from the dealers, they catch tops and bottom. Good to follow them


Assets managers add a lot on extreme moves. They have increased their shorts a lot lately, saying we could have a bottom


Weekly system has been good so far. I was waiting for more extreme move but it coincide with the 2 charts above

EURCHF investment idea #9


Dealers have been net short for a long time now. But lately they are retreating a lot. Will they go net long?


Assets managers are still very loaded with longs. It would be safer to wait for them to cool off drastically


Weekly system is cooling off nicely. Lowest in years. Watch out


Daily system has turned extreme bearish. Longs in favor here

GBPJPY investment idea #10


Dealers are increasing their net longs. Price is downside oriented, but watch out for steep rise in the future


Assets managers are going short all in, its never a smart idea to sell with assets managers that short, and price near bottom (even though it can go lower)


Weekly system agrees with the Assets managers

NZDCAD investment idea #11


Dealers are retreating from their big net longs so far. Watch out a potential downside


After being very net shorts, assets managers are retreating as well. They are closing their big net short bets.


Weekly system agrees with both dealers and assets managers. And what's happening lately? It says we are in the selling area

EURCAD investment idea #12


Dealers are massively short EURO against CAD. That's when it risky to buy


Assets managers are net long, highest in years. It doesn't bode well for the pair when its that high


Weekly system is getting contrarian here. We still are in a buy zone. That's why i won't sell for the long run yet

EURNZD investment idea #13

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Dealers are very much shorts now. As much as they were when the pair fell in the past

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Assets managers look fully loaded with longs, you don't want to hold their bag, watch out here

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Weekly system agrees with both dealers and assets managers on the short side for either correction/reversal

AUDNZD investment idea #14


Dealers are flat, lately they are totally lost. Nothing to do or see here


Assets managers are kind of lost as well. Net long, net short but small positions


Weekly system is folowing the dealers and assets managers and going flat

No strong moves at all

EURJPY investment idea #15


Dealers are still net short but decreasing from -55% to -6% is something to watch out if you keep shorting the pair.


Assets managers have the lowest net long positions over the past 4 years. Lets stop that downtrend


Weekly system agrees with the above, lowest strength in price over the past years.

Watch for some correction up/reversal

EURGBP investment idea #16


Dealers are very short. You are long? cautious. Selling the rallies is the way to go.


Assets managers have loaded lots of longs. They are net long, don't hold their bag once they dump it


Weekly system partially agrees with the possible sell off. It went above 30% of bull strength, overall its a lot, but not as much as one would expect.
Any moves higher should be a good ecxcuse to sell the pair