I say Gambling, blackjack in particular.
Why?
Well isn't it obvious?
In Trading/Investing world you are by yourself against Billions / Millions of people and possibly Insider Traders with distinct Information Asymmetry depending on your market.
whilst in Gambling (blackjack in particular) you are against the house and some other people. And on some rare occasion you are against cheaters.
Whilst on trading world, insider information are circulated daily -be that a good tip or a fake tip-
There is no certainty in the market, because different people perceived different information -imperfect information- and they have different view, some people in Asia can buy the Yen because of some unknown reason and other people in Australia might sell the Yen because some Tipster on TV said so.
In short: the market can go up or it can go down.
There is certainty in blackjack because the deck that is used is predictable (i.e. there are only four A,K,Q,J,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2)
K, Q, J, 10 values' are equal to 10
9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2 values' are the same as it's number
A can be 11 or 1 depending on the card holder (player)
a deck consists of 52 cards
there are 16 cards with the value 10 (K spade, K hearts, K club, K diamond, Qs,Qh,Qc,Qd, Js,Jh,Jc,Jd, 10s,10h,10c,10d)
and to win you need to have a higher number (no more than 21) than the dealer & other players
you have a 16/52 (30% chance to have a value 10 card)
Also you can clearly see what the dealer & other players has in their hands:
one card face up and the other card face down
so for example:
if the dealer has a value 5 face up card and a card face down
we can safely assume that the face down card is a value 10
because there is a 30% chance of that card being a value 10 card, whilst there are only a 7% chance of being a value 2 or 3 or 4 ,etc. card
and we have a value 9 face up card and a value 10 face down card
we can easily win this game just by holding.
And when the dealer open his face down card, turns our it's a value 10
so his total value of cards is 15 ; mine is 19
the dealer must draw until the value of all his cards is above 17, with above 21 being a lose for the dealer and a win for me
so the dealer is going to hit (draw a card from the deck) and yet again there is a ~30% chance of it being a value 10 card
so after he draws from the deck turns out it is a 10 card
his total card value is now 25 ; mine is 19 .
So I win because the dealer's card is now above 21.
Can the market do that? no.
information asymmetry is the problem in the markets
whilst in blackjack, everyone who is in the table knows each other's face up cards and can potentially come up with a calculation in their heads to count the probabilities of the face down cards and act accordingly.
In other words,
in blackjack, you can safely assume that you & the dealer & other people have a 30% chance of getting a value 10 card.
(if there are no cards drawn in the first place)
whilst in the market, you can't even have that kind of privilege = a certainty of the uncertainty.
Why?
Well isn't it obvious?
In Trading/Investing world you are by yourself against Billions / Millions of people and possibly Insider Traders with distinct Information Asymmetry depending on your market.
whilst in Gambling (blackjack in particular) you are against the house and some other people. And on some rare occasion you are against cheaters.
Whilst on trading world, insider information are circulated daily -be that a good tip or a fake tip-
There is no certainty in the market, because different people perceived different information -imperfect information- and they have different view, some people in Asia can buy the Yen because of some unknown reason and other people in Australia might sell the Yen because some Tipster on TV said so.
In short: the market can go up or it can go down.
There is certainty in blackjack because the deck that is used is predictable (i.e. there are only four A,K,Q,J,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2)
K, Q, J, 10 values' are equal to 10
9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2 values' are the same as it's number
A can be 11 or 1 depending on the card holder (player)
a deck consists of 52 cards
there are 16 cards with the value 10 (K spade, K hearts, K club, K diamond, Qs,Qh,Qc,Qd, Js,Jh,Jc,Jd, 10s,10h,10c,10d)
and to win you need to have a higher number (no more than 21) than the dealer & other players
you have a 16/52 (30% chance to have a value 10 card)
Also you can clearly see what the dealer & other players has in their hands:
one card face up and the other card face down
so for example:
if the dealer has a value 5 face up card and a card face down
we can safely assume that the face down card is a value 10
because there is a 30% chance of that card being a value 10 card, whilst there are only a 7% chance of being a value 2 or 3 or 4 ,etc. card
and we have a value 9 face up card and a value 10 face down card
we can easily win this game just by holding.
And when the dealer open his face down card, turns our it's a value 10
so his total value of cards is 15 ; mine is 19
the dealer must draw until the value of all his cards is above 17, with above 21 being a lose for the dealer and a win for me
so the dealer is going to hit (draw a card from the deck) and yet again there is a ~30% chance of it being a value 10 card
so after he draws from the deck turns out it is a 10 card
his total card value is now 25 ; mine is 19 .
So I win because the dealer's card is now above 21.
Can the market do that? no.
information asymmetry is the problem in the markets
whilst in blackjack, everyone who is in the table knows each other's face up cards and can potentially come up with a calculation in their heads to count the probabilities of the face down cards and act accordingly.
In other words,
in blackjack, you can safely assume that you & the dealer & other people have a 30% chance of getting a value 10 card.
(if there are no cards drawn in the first place)
whilst in the market, you can't even have that kind of privilege = a certainty of the uncertainty.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
