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  • #130,281
  • Apr 16, 2021 5:25am Apr 16, 2021 5:25am
I hate this kind of teasing with large thresholds, but probably it is required to attract enough shorts to squeeze through.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,282
  • Apr 16, 2021 5:48am Apr 16, 2021 5:48am
Quoting yvestrcz
{quote} There it is! It has taken long 27 hours, but it has now been fulfilled to a good (TP) end.
that's what i call patience. nice one !
  • #130,283
  • Apr 16, 2021 6:03am Apr 16, 2021 6:03am
The stop hunts never end for EU...keep milking the cow and eventually going to butcher it for the meat very soon.
  • #130,284
  • Apr 16, 2021 6:05am Apr 16, 2021 6:05am
Hmm, I am almost convinced it is going up from here and thinking of opening a long position. What do you see a realistic target before the weekend starts? 1.2020?
  • #130,285
  • Edited 6:34am Apr 16, 2021 6:19am | Edited 6:34am
Pay attention if this forms a falling wedge on M5, if yes it will most certainly go through 1.20 upon breaking out. So far it looks like a wedge.
Edit: Hasn't done it...
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,286
  • Apr 16, 2021 6:35am Apr 16, 2021 6:35am
Quoting nic9man
Pay attention if this forms a falling wedge on M5, if yes it will most certainly go through 1.20 upon breaking out. So far it looks like a wedge.
Thanks a lot! You mean a reversal rising wedge that'll drop to perhaps 1.1950's sooner or later?
  • #130,287
  • Apr 16, 2021 7:00am Apr 16, 2021 7:00am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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from shahab8b
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ideas?page=624
Trends have a higher probability of continuing than not.
  • #130,288
  • Apr 16, 2021 7:03am Apr 16, 2021 7:03am
Quoting yvestrcz
{quote} Thanks a lot! You mean a reversal rising wedge that'll drop to perhaps 1.1950's sooner or later?
Actually I meant that prices often form a small falling wedge as part of an ongoing upward move before a larger threshold, which give you confidence that the price will go through. In this case it looked like a wedge for some minutes but was destroyed then as the price dropped through the potential support.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,289
  • Apr 16, 2021 7:11am Apr 16, 2021 7:11am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Hey Nordling, just wanted to make sure that I understand how you mean this. You are short USD because US data is good and the FED is dovish - so do you have lower real yields in mind (higher inflation with low rates) or why does a strong US economy support your picture of a weak USD?
Well this is a good question and it's a bit tricky yes. People tend to think that high retail sales and high growth rates are good. Well yes for the overall economy they are good but i can't say the same thing about the currency. High growth rates and sales mean there's also high money supply, which depreciates the currency.

Some things can be good for the economy but also bad for the currency. And that's what we see here. US is in a good direction economically and these policies are doing well. US is in a recovery cycle right now and trying to reach full employment which is also great for the US economy.

On the other hand this means people will start spending more money, import more foreign goods, supplying more dollars to the market and overseas. That's why i think US Dollar will depreciate.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #130,290
  • Edited 7:44am Apr 16, 2021 7:26am | Edited 7:44am
Quoting Kyuu
I predicted yesterday we're going straight up past 1.23 and expected no real pullback today either. Am hoping 1.185 will break today. Expecting this to be a mini pullback to bait shorts before the next massive up move. First image is my 1hr chart, 2nd is 4h, a close below 1.17508 will change my mind {image} {image}
I wish I had stuck to my original plan and hadn't been greedy looking for a re-entry , I ended up just watching 100 pips go in my direction without me and I even told myself we won't have a serious pullback until maybe after we break the FOMC highs, but it is what it is. I didn't expect the 2nd image broke support from FOMC to hold but it did. I'll be waiting for a pullback to one of my levels before entering long, where I'll remain long biased for a while. The most ideal pullback would be to 1.18386 for a perfect head and shoulders,’but I doubt the market will be that kind to me haha

As bullish as we've been, I think we're going much higher. Of course it'll take time, but looking to see EUR go up to 1.35, 1.25 first target
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  • #130,291
  • Apr 16, 2021 7:47am Apr 16, 2021 7:47am
This might be it, potential falling wedge on M15 (2 versions)
Attached Image
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,292
  • Apr 16, 2021 7:53am Apr 16, 2021 7:53am
3 minute chart
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MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #130,293
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:13am Apr 16, 2021 8:13am
Quoting eurusd-thijs
{image}from shahab8b https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ideas?page=624
That pattern has been broken already - not buying it.

I'm expecting another push up to the 1.20 area this morning which "should" be rejected. As long as it closes above 1.1980 I'm staying long.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #130,294
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:40am Apr 16, 2021 8:40am
I always have to smile when people say that everything is random... look at the 61.8 line. Coincidence, for sure...
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  • #130,295
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:45am Apr 16, 2021 8:45am
eurusd is going to finish wave A or 1?!! or may finished already?!
I prefer to wait a bit more to go short:
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  • #130,296
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:50am Apr 16, 2021 8:50am
Quoting dashlat
eurusd is going to finish wave A or 1?!! or may finished already?! I prefer to wait a bit more to go short: {image}
While I would LOVE to see your wave 5 do that I don't think it will get past 1.20 today.

On the 15 min it appears to be consolidating - probably waiting for the USA consumer sentiment and Michigan inflation numbers. If the inflation numbers come in less than the 3.1% I expect a surge upwards with a probable close above 1.20.

Inflation numbers above 3.1%? I would "expect" a violent downward thrust initially then look to the 10 year for long-term guidance.

We'll see in 15 minutes
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #130,297
  • Edited 9:48am Apr 16, 2021 9:24am | Edited 9:48am
3.7% and yet it surge up.

The only purpose of it really is to avoid trading before these news comes out and wait for the dust to settle...market always tends to become unpredictable during these times.

And again...the stop hunts...cow is bleeding, about to butcher it for the meat soon. Yummy steaks coming up!
  • #130,298
  • Apr 16, 2021 9:51am Apr 16, 2021 9:51am
I think the bears finally are winning... the trap prior to the bears counter-attack probably killed the bulls.
  • #130,299
  • Apr 16, 2021 10:09am Apr 16, 2021 10:09am
Quoting RunForexRun1
3.7% and yet it surge up. The only purpose of it really is to avoid trading before these news comes out and wait for the dust to settle...market always tends to become unpredictable during these times. And again...the stop hunts...cow is bleeding, about to butcher it for the meat soon. Yummy steaks coming up!
  • #130,300
  • Apr 16, 2021 10:14am Apr 16, 2021 10:14am
EURUSD is up 280 pips this month and doesn't seem to be stopping. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new high today or Monday then some retrace/consolidation. Continuous straight line moves don't last forever, and EURUSD will run out of breath at some point. The vaccines picture in the EU is improving and the market likes that. We need to watch for any major vaccine news good or bad.
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