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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #57,701
  • Apr 13, 2021 12:59am Apr 13, 2021 12:59am
Quoting birdland
i can only speak from my experience with NTBB (and not the AJ trade), but it seems similar. there its better to take only the first breakout, and come back later to NY or LO-close. today for example it was a -12 pip loss.
Maybe, but it did make on the break up. No perfect answer is there.

What we are ignoring is the actual price level. 3750 area has been a pain for a while.
  • #57,702
  • Apr 13, 2021 1:04am Apr 13, 2021 1:04am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Maybe, but it did make on the break up. No perfect answer is there. What we are ignoring is the actual price level. 3750 area has been a pain for a while.
well yes, i have to agree;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #57,703
  • Apr 13, 2021 1:07am Apr 13, 2021 1:07am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Last night was a mess on AJ. I have it set both sides at the moment but will look at your idea. FTSE I would look for +10 but 5 is a win. Looking at gold as another option. Might have to rename Billy Bar to Where's Billy Bar.
i am still here lol.

cable, 08-00 break. High broke +5%.. straight through 00-00 4 hour high area high.
Now finished for the day lol.
Trade well all...
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #57,704
  • Apr 13, 2021 1:09am Apr 13, 2021 1:09am
Quoting billytt
{quote} i am still here lol. cable, 08-00 break. High broke +5%.. straight through 00-00 4 hour high area high. Now finished for the day lol. Trade well all...
Hi

Mr T is out in the woods searching for you lol
  • #57,705
  • Apr 13, 2021 1:41am Apr 13, 2021 1:41am
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Hi Mate. Just a quick question if you don't mind. My interpretation of this 2 hour range that Claudia first introduced me too, was that it was the first 2 Hour range AFTER NY close. (highlighted in Red on my chart) But you have mentioned that you are taking the 12-2am UK time as the range.....which would be the range highlighted in Blue on my chart. Is that correct? and if so......Claudia, if you read this.....would that be correct please? Just trying to get my ducks in a row here. Signed. Confused lol. {image}
Hi Michael. I think you might be becoming confused with a thing I worked on with someone a while back. I had The Witching Hour, which ran a Dead Zone for the Southern Hemisphere at midnight UK time but we discovered that the period between US Close and that time also worked quite well.

Interestingly one would be a continuation move and one a reversal (can't remember which one now, lol).

Maybe that's what you're thinking of?
  • #57,706
  • Apr 13, 2021 1:46am Apr 13, 2021 1:46am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Run the statistics on each range, Mate. That will tell you. Cheers!! {image}
What are these statistics telling you?

H-L = 13? So from high to low 13 Pips? So this only tells for x times the hourly bar is >=13 Pips over a sample size of x past bars?

So you should have a chance to get out at least 3 Pips after breaking the high/low of the H1 bar for times where it gives you even a 100%.

Can you run these statistics in a more detailed way? Saying, how many times it retraced x numbers of pips before actually hitting your target after price first broke out at x end of the range and give you % numbers of what happened then?

So something like

Inputs:

target = +x Pips
stop/counter = -x Pips OR opposite end high/low of the range.
range = 00:00:00 - 00:15:00 GMT

Now, how many % times the target was reached over x last bars WITHOUT price retracing back to "stop/counter" price level?

That might could provide a better picture instead of just looking for the % probability in terms of how many pips a range normally was good for reaching to x pips during x times.

Maybe you could even go further and look for something like:

- How many consecutive days over x last bars target would have reached without reaching a stop/counter
- How many consecutive days over x last bars target failed to reach x over over x last bars/time period.
- How many times target was reached IF failed on the first break but then hit target after the second, third, fourth... opposite break of the range.

I am doing all this manually by scrolling back over my chart and writing down numbers in a excel sheet while checking for the mentioned inputs/criteria. However this takes a huge amount of time doing so. So maybe it could be automated so i would be able to check a larger sample size, different ranges, different criteria having the process coded/automated.
  • #57,707
  • Apr 13, 2021 2:26am Apr 13, 2021 2:26am
GU looking strong to the upside today. Wonder if we’ll get to 1.38. Like Claudia says, 1.3750 has been an issue for a while now. Price above a few things so I’m long
  • #57,708
  • Apr 13, 2021 2:58am Apr 13, 2021 2:58am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Hi Mr T is out in the woods searching for you lol
Billy ?
Not seen him officer
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #57,709
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:02am Apr 13, 2021 3:02am
Quoting ia1979
GU looking strong to the upside today. Wonder if we’ll get to 1.38. Like Claudia says, 1.3750 has been an issue for a while now. Price above a few things so I’m long
It's on go slow. Maybe run up to r1 at 90 area. Once again await NY and watch the reversal back to 3750. Just a little plan.

Edit: going back there already it's like a magnet.
  • #57,710
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:03am Apr 13, 2021 3:03am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Billy ? Not seen him officer {image}
Lol. Spanish this afternoon ?
  • #57,711
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:07am Apr 13, 2021 3:07am
Lemercenaire - been playing with the Bund again after many years. Can trend well. Any experience of it ?
  • #57,712
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:22am Apr 13, 2021 3:22am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} It's on go slow. Maybe run up to r1 at 90 area. Once again await NY and watch the reversal back to 3750. Just a little plan. Edit: going back there already it's like a magnet.
Might bounce off the daily open and go back up.

Got the EA set up for Gold this afternoon. Break of the 1pm-1:15pm range, a hybrid of Billy, Claudia, and JP's method. Targeting 50 pips (500 points).
  • #57,713
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:23am Apr 13, 2021 3:23am
4 closings from H4 chart around 1.3767...a strong level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4 1.3767.png Size: 39 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #57,714
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:29am Apr 13, 2021 3:29am
Strong move down already even before NY-O

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tcLDzQL.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #57,715
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:33am Apr 13, 2021 3:33am
Quoting lddd
Strong move down already even before NY-O {image}
Broke the short term trend line it's back to the pivot day. Clean break below the 50 be interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD(£)H1.png Size: 37 KB
  • #57,716
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:35am Apr 13, 2021 3:35am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} It's on go slow. Maybe run up to r1 at 90 area. Once again await NY and watch the reversal back to 3750. Just a little plan. Edit: going back there already it's like a magnet.
Red news USD at 13:30 UK.
  • #57,717
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:44am Apr 13, 2021 3:44am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Red news USD at 13:30 UK.
Time to look at the horses. Newmarket for me Gosden has an outsider in 15.20 showing 11/1. Unusual for that stable has his top jockey on too. Worth a look. Wonder how Fagin is doing ??
  • #57,718
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:49am Apr 13, 2021 3:49am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Lol. Spanish this afternoon ?
Taking Mrs T to hairdressers and I will ( in the interim) sip coffee al fresco at a nearby cafe.
( Our kitchen is beginning to look like a nursery - lots of puppy toys. I tried to convince her ( the puppy) to play with the toys rather than decimate our daffodils !
Failed -again !!
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #57,719
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:53am Apr 13, 2021 3:53am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Time to look at the horses. Newmarket for me Gosden has an outsider in 15.20 showing 11/1. Unusual for that stable has his top jockey on too. Worth a look. Wonder how Fagin is doing ??
FTSE -0745 bar may have tripped you into a fake out short but a break North should have recouped or mitigated any loss?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #57,720
  • Apr 13, 2021 3:56am Apr 13, 2021 3:56am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} FTSE -0745 bar may have tripped you into a fake out short but a break North should have recouped or mitigated any loss?
Correct. Overall it seems to do well - there will always be losers obviously. I do put a buffer on these trades.
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